Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s singles final and brings you his best bets for Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic.
Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1pt Novak Djokovic to win and both players to win a set at 2/1 (General)
2pts Carlos Alcaraz % of points won from first serve under 74.5 at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic (1400 BST)
How much you trust your gut in sports betting will clearly differ from punter to punter but there’s no doubt you always need to consider that initial verdict.
And my view when I first saw the market for Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s final was that Djokovic looks good value.
He was chalked up as the underdog and I’m not surprised to see that he’s been backed into 13/10 at time of writing.
I had expected this to be around a 50-50 match with the layers given what I’ve seen this fortnight.
Little over a month ago, most pundits weren’t even expecting Djokovic to play the tournament. Knee surgery during the French Open meant he’d surely focus on getting himself fit for his bid for that elusive Olympic gold medal, wouldn’t it?
But the fact is that less than six weeks after going under the knife, the Serb is back in a Grand Slam final, bidding to win what would be an all-time record – for men and women – 25th major title.
He’s played arguably his best tennis of what has been an underwhelming season in SW19, losing only two sets and improving round by round.
His last two matches have seen him dominate Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti and he comes into this contest having played for four hours fewer than his opponent.
The big question – one which is difficult to answer – is how big is the step in class that Djokovic is facing for this final?
Frankly, his draw has been favourable to say the least with arguably the toughest opponent, Alex de Minaur, removed from his path due to injury.
Rune and Musetti are no mugs but neither has strong history on this surface. Alcaraz does and will surely offer much more.
That said, I don’t think Alcaraz is playing as well now as he was 12 months ago when he famously toppled Djokovic in a classic five-set final.
He’s lost sets in four of his six matches so far, being pushed to the limit by Frances Tiafoe and having had to come from behind to defeat both Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev.
The good news is he’s managed to find solutions to the problems staring him in the face but he’ll know, deep down, that not being unable to maintain a consistently high level against a player as good as Djokovic isn’t likely to go well.
Alcaraz managed a first-serve percentage of just 57% in his semi-final against Medvedev – that number will need to go up – while Djokovic should be much better at the net in this match, an area where Medvedev was found wanting.
Medvedev won just 63% of the net points on Friday; in his semi-final against Musetti, Djokovic won 77% when his volleys were excellent.
In short, I think Djokovic is capable of jumping that aforementioned gap and making this the competitive match most expect.
There’s been little to split the pair in their previous meetings.
Djokovic leads 3-2 following a straight-sets win at November’s ATP Finals, although that match is very much an outlier in their series, basically due to the fact it was played on a fast indoor court.
Three of the four other contests have been settled in a final set, including here last summer and the rematch which followed in Cincinnati a few weeks later when Alcaraz lost from match point up.
Across the five matches, Djokovic leads in several statistical categories, including first-serve points won (+1 percentage point), second-serve points won (+9) and return points won (+3).
With both men among the best at changing things up when certain tactics aren’t working, I see this being another contest which ebbs and flows – both players to win a set seems a strong base for any multiple-choice bets you are putting together.
I’ll combine that with my gut pick which was Djokovic to win, one I’ve hopefully backed up with further evidence. Djokovic to win and both players to win a set can be backed at 2/1.
However, my best bet for this match actually comes in the serve markets which have served (no punt intended) this column so well over the years.
Betfair and Paddy Power have a market regarding points won on first serve and Alcaraz’s line looks to have been set too high at 74.5% – I’m on the unders all day long here.
Across those five previous matches, Alcaraz has won 67% of points behind his first serve.
And when you break things down to individual matches, you find he’s never managed to win over 74.5% of points behind his first deal when facing Djokovic.
For the record, the make-ups (most recent first) have been 62-72-70-54-74.
The 70% figure was achieved on this court 12 months ago
Even at this tournament, Alcaraz is only at 72% first-serve points won (he’s been above 74.5% only in the first two rounds) and it’s hard to believe that’s going to pick up in a match against one of the greatest returners of all time.
Posted at 1635 BST on 13/07/24
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