After landing a 4/1 winner on Wednesday, Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s ladies’ semi-finals at Wimbledon.
Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1pt Jasmine Paolini to beat Donna Vekic 2-0 at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Barbora Krejcikova (+4.5) to beat Elena Rybakina on the game handicap at evens (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Donna Vekic v Jasmine Paolini
Paolini feels like the one who got away.
A three-figure price pre-tournament, I mentioned her in my outright preview, highlighting her as a player who “might be worth taking a risk on”, only to then ignore my own advice. The word muppet springs to mind.
Of course, she may lose at the semi-final stage and ensure I have fewer regrets, although I’m not expecting that to happen.
As was the case at the French Open, where she made the final, the Italian is striking the ball wonderfully well at the moment and hasn’t been fazed by the move to the lower-bouncing grass.
To be honest, she was a little fortunate to come through against Madison Keys, who led by a double-break in the final set before getting injured.
But she showed that day how she’s capable of living with even the heaviest of hitters from the back of the court and I don’t see Vekic’s game causing her huge problems.
The Croatian admitted feeling tense when he quarter-final started badly but opponent Lulu Sun faded physically as the match wore on. I don’t see that happening here.
Paolini has only lost one set – to Keys – en route to this stage, despite having a tougher route through the draw. She also defeated seed Emma Navarro (for the loss of just three games) and former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu.
In contrast, Vekic, who has only faced one seed so far having come through a section that title favourite Aryna Sabalenka was a late withdrawal from, has dropped sets in four of her five matches and so if anyone’s going to be feeling it in this one, it will likely be her.
The other factor at play here will be the mentality.
This will be Vekic’s first Grand Slam semi-final and we saw on Tuesday how emotional she was at finally getting over the last-eight hurdle. That win may have taken a bit out of her.
Paolini, on the other hand, is back at this stage just a few weeks after first achieving it and, crucially, she was a dominant winner in her French Open semi-final.
I can see something similar occurring here and a straight-sets win for the seventh seed looks worth a bet at 6/4.
Barbora Krejcikova v Elena Rybakina
Krejcikova served very well against Jelena Ostapenko on Wednesday and, notably, that shot has enjoyed success in this match-up in the past.
The Czech’s first serve has won 79% of points across their previous two meetings, while the second serve has delivered a 58% success rate.
When I tell you that the equivalent figures for Rybakina are 74% and 49% respectively, you won’t be surprised to learn that Krejcikova is 2-0 up on the head-to-head, both matches having been played on a hardcourt.
That suggests to me that she’s a tad overpriced here at 7/2.
Rybakina’s big serve will doubtless win her plenty of points. But she served 17 aces when the pair last met, indoors in Ostrava at the back end of 2022, and still lost.
The grass will work in her favour and she’s only lost one set so far in the tournament.
Yet, Krejcikova, who has also dropped just a single set, has dealt with the power of Danielle Collins and Ostapenko in the past two rounds, matches which should have prepared her well for what’s to come here.
She’ll look to disrupt the rhythm, as she did in her quarter-finals, with a series of slices and pace variation and that will provide a different puzzle for Rybakina to solve.
I’m not hugely confident but siding with Krejcikova on the game handicap, where she gets a 4.5 start, looks worth a try.
Posted at 1700 BST on 10/07/24
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