Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1pt Matteo Berrettini to win the first set v Jannik Sinner at 12/5 (bet365, BoyleSports)
1pt Both players 10+ aces in Jannik Sinner v Matteo Berrettini at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Jordan Thompson to beat Brandon Nakashima at 13/10 (General)
1pt Jasmine Paolini to beat Greet Minnen & Daria Kasatkina to beat Lily Miyazaki 2-0 at 17/20 (William Hill, 888sport)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Jannik Sinner v Matteo Berrettini
I’ve written a lot about Berrettini in the lead-up to this event, mainly due to his excellent grasscourt record, and I’m keen to get with him in some way here.
Of the two, he’s the player most happy to have the grass under his feet and this looks an awful match for top-seeded Sinner to be facing so early in the tournament.
He was clearly still getting used to the fresh courts on Monday when he dropped a set against Yannick Hanfmann in his opener and I’m sure Berrettini will try to manoeuvre him around the court and see how he copes with changes of direction on the surface.
The Berrettini serve is a major weapon and should earn him plenty of cheap points.
Admittedly, Sinner did win their only previous meeting – in Toronto last summer – but it was only decided by a single break in each set with Berrettini creating seven break points but being unable to convert any of them.
The move onto the grass has to help Berrettini, though.
He’s 4/1 to land the upset which I wouldn’t rule out but my concern with him is that he’s short on matches due to his injury issues and playing best-of-five now isn’t ideal.
He needed treatment during his first-round win over Marton Fucsovics which gives me the sense that Sinner may well take control as the contest wears on.
The title favourite is 11/10 for victory with both players winning a set, a bet I certainly considered, but I’ve instead settled on backing Berrrettini to win the first set at 12/5.
That sledgehammer serve should prove tough to return from the outset and if Sinner takes a little while to bed into the match, that could leave him in a bit of early trouble.
With those fitness concerns, I’m sure Berrettini will know he needs a strong start to this match and it’s notable that he’s won the opening set in 18 of his last 20 grasscourt matches.
They include his meeting in SW19 last year with eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz (when he was similarly short on matchplay), while Berrettini also managed to claim the first set of the 2021 final against Novak Djokovic.
There’s also a bet in the sub-markets I like, namely both players to serve 10+ aces.
They managed to land this in their Toronto meeting, despite playing only two sets.
Here, they will contest at least three and I’d suggest the skiddy, low-bouncing grass offers greater ace chances.
Sinner served 16 in his first-round victory, Berrettini 11, so they’ve already got their eye in on this front.
Brandon Nakashima v Jordan Thompson
I like Thompson at odds-against here.
The pair have similar grasscourt data this season – both hold well but break pretty rarely.
Nakashima has an 86% hold rate with 18% breaks, while Thompson’s equivalent figures are 88-15.
Both have strong tie-break records over the past 12 months – 61% and 64% win rates respectively – so this looks a match which could well boil down to a few key points here and there.
A look at the head-to-head also produces a tight picture with Nakashima 3-2 up but Thompson did win their only previous grasscourt meeting, here at Wimbledon last year.
The Australian needed five sets to win his first-round match, although he was playing a decent sort in Pavel Kotov, while Nakahsima brushed aside Sebastian Baez, a player who looked like he wanted to be back on the clay (and probably already is).
Perhaps that extra tennis in the legs is the reason for Thompson’s price but he’s a fit guy and this doesn’t look the sort of match which is going to involve a lot of lengthy rallies.
Thompson made the semi-finals at Queen’s Club last month, beating Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune along the way. Between them, those two top-15 stars created just one break point against the Thompson serve and I don’t see Nakashima’s returns being good enough to create a lot of chances either.
For me, there’s value in the underdog’s price here.
Jasime Paolini v Greet Minnen
I caught some of Minnen’s match against Briton Heather Watson the other day and it was one the Briton really threw away.
Minnen should at least have been taken to a final set but, not fore the first time, we saw Watson wobble and blow her chance.
Paolini seems unlikely to be offering up any such gifts and the French Open runner-up started well enough with a straight-sets victory over Sara Sorribes Tormo.
Having also made the semis in Eastbourne last week, notching a good win over Katie Boulter and fully testing eventual champion Daria Kasatkina, Paolini looks settled in on the new surface and is continuing her improvement which has lifted her into the world’s top 10.
I don’t see Minnen causing her too many problems in what will be the pair’s first meeting and the Italian is the first leg of a double…
Daria Kasatkina v Lily Miyazaki
Having won the Eastbourne final on Saturday, Kasatkina has to make the quick switch to Wimbledon for her first-round match on Monday.
That can often prove awkward but she passed the test with flying colours, losing just three games to Shuai Zhang.
Her court craft should prove too much for the limited Miyazaki, who enjoyed one of her best wins when she crushed Tamara Korpatsch in her opener.
However, the German has been struggling for some time and came into the match having already lost six sets on grass by a 6-0 or 6-1 scoreline this season. In short, it looked an ideal draw for the Briton.
This should be a huge step up and not one I see Miyazaki making.
A straight-sets win for the in-form Kasatkina, doubled up with the Paolini win, pays 17/20 which looks nice.
Posted at 1945 BST on 02/07/24
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