Timeform’s Tony McFadden reflects on the success of City of Troy and Ezeliya in the Epsom classics.
Style of success suggests there could be more to come from City of Troy
Heading into the Derby the big question, following an abject display in the 2000 Guineas and discussions about his physical stature, was whether City of Troy had trained on well enough to get close to the level he achieved as a juvenile when he had brushed his rivals aside in an unbeaten three-race campaign.
However, City of Troy proved every bit as good, and arguably better, than he had looked in the Dewhurst Stakes last season, showing himself to be a colt of rare ability with the rapid move he made early in the straight to propel himself from his position in the pack to the front of the field in little more than a furlong.
So powerful was that surge that, even with stamina to prove, it looked like a matter of how far after City of Troy struck the front, with the winning margin of two and three-quarter lengths probably towards the lower end of expectations given how well he quickened.
There looked to be plenty left in the tank, though, and when his updated Timeform rating is confirmed on Monday morning it is very likely to have the ‘p’ for likely improvement reattached, raising the prospect that he could well go on and prove himself to be Aidan O’Brien’s best ever.
The best performance produced by a horse trained by O’Brien was Hawk Wing whose ten-length demolition in the Lockinge Stakes earned him a Timeform rating of 136, while Galileo has the highest rating from O’Brien’s ten Derby winners, earning a figure of 134 for his epic victory over Fantastic Light in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes.
There’s still a fair chunk of improvement for City of Troy to find given his updated Timeform rating is likely to be in the mid-to-high 120s, but the style of success means talk of potential greatness is back on the agenda.
City of Troy’s rare blend of class and stamina
With so much focus on City of Troy‘s dramatic flop in the 2000 Guineas and what that meant for his prospects as a three-year-old, one aspect that didn’t get the usual focus it would for a horse stepping up half a mile in trip was whether he would actually stay.
City of Troy, whose pedigree offered hope he could perform over middle-distances given his dam is a sister to an Oaks winner, emphatically saw out the trip at Epsom, proving really strong in the finish after initially seeming to idle slightly in front.
That mix of class and stamina is a rare combination and City of Troy is the first horse since New Approach in 2008 to win the Derby after being Timeform’s highest-rated two-year-old. Admittedly, the only colt to have attempted it in that timeframe was Dawn Approach, while injury prevented St Nicholas Abbey from competing at Epsom, but that in itself shows how rare it is for Derby contenders to be precocious enough to be juvenile champions.
Ezeliya a strong winner of a weak-looking Oaks
The latest edition of the Oaks was missing an impressive trial winner in Diamond Rain, the big Guineas eye-catcher in Tamfana was also absent and on pre-race Timeform ratings it did not seem like a strong edition.
And when the filly clear at the head of those ratings fails to fire and labours into sixth like Ylang Ylang, you might assume you’re left with a piece of form that, by classic standards, isn’t worth dwelling on.
However, the longer trip helped a few fillies to markedly raise their game, with War Chimes and Dance Sequence both showing smart form whilst being no match for the impressive winner Ezeliya who now looks set to make her mark against the boys later in the campaign.
Ezeliya really impressed with how she travelled, taking the eye with the headway she made entering the straight, and she always looked like getting on top when produced to lead over two furlongs out. Her Timeform rating of 118p is slightly higher than the average clocked by an Oaks winner in the last decade, with the ‘p’ denoting further improvement is likely after only four starts in a career characterised by marked run-by-run progress.
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