Dublin has been waiting for Taylor. But does the ‘Swift lift’ really add up to €150m?

So long London, welcome to Dublin. Recent headlines have claimed that consumer spending prompted by Taylor Swift’s three-night stint at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin this weekend could result in a nine-digit economic “Swift lift”. But is the American superstar really poised to give a €150 million boost to the Irish economy?

The short answer is that, while such events are surely worth more than Sweet Nothing and may leave a lingering Afterglow, only in the Wildest Dreams of Swiftonomics enthusiasts are they likely to have this kind of impact.

The widely quoted €150 million figure appears to be based on a UK study by the British bank Barclays that has attracted criticism for both oversimplifying and overstating the influence of Swift’s Eras tour.

The Barclays press release, when it was published in May, was originally titled “It’s a Love Story: Taylor Swift’s Eras tour to provide nearly £1 billion boost to UK economy”.

Crucially, however, not all of the estimated spending itemised by the bank benefits the economy of the host country. A large chunk of it, notably Swift’s cut of ticket revenues and any spending on official merchandise, will flow back to the US. Even if this wasn’t the case, consumer spending estimates for specific events should not be directly translated into a national economic “boost”, as much of the total will be disposable income that Swift’s fans would have spent on other things if she had stayed at home.

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This may explain why the Barclays release is now headlined “It’s a Love Story: Consumers to spend nearly £1 billion attending Taylor Swift’s Eras tour”. But even this is worth deeper examination. Barclays, basing its estimates on a survey of 200 people who either had Swift tickets or said they hoped to pick one up somehow, came up with an average outlay of £848 (€1,002). As about 165,000 people will attend the Dublin gigs, this would point to Swift-related Irish consumer spending of €165 million. The reality is likely to be far more modest.

The bank’s estimates included average spends per person of £206 on tickets, £121 on accommodation, £111 on transport, £79 on official merchandise, £59 on a meal beforehand, £56 on a new outfit and £216 on miscellaneous expenses, including drinks and album purchases.

But several of these estimates seem on the high side. Even the £121 figure for accommodation, though considerably lower than the price of a typical hotel room in Dublin this weekend, seems a generous average in an Irish context, given a substantial proportion of attendees will not be availing of any hotels at all.

These are the unknowns that really determine the worth of major events to an economy. How many Swifties are travelling to Dublin and staying overnight, in effect redistributing their income to the capital? How many are big-spending gig tourists flying in to see their idol perform, then hanging about afterwards, triggering multiplier effects?

“The Taylor Swift concerts are a massive boost for the city,” says Gerry Farrell, director of operations for business group Dublin Town. “City centre trade and footfall will benefit significantly. Also, an artist with Taylor’s international profile means the appeal moves beyond a purely local audience and brings fans from all over Ireland and beyond.”

Swift is not the only party in town. This weekend is a bumper one for music fans, with events in Malahide Castle, Fairview Park, Marlay Park and Trinity College. Together with the Dublin Pride Parade and the GAA senior football championship games, an estimated 600,000 people will be out and about spending money – more than enough to elicit a warning of “severe taxi shortages” from the Taxis for Ireland Coalition.

Dublin Chamber, which anticipates “a great buzz” in the city, says the events being held this weekend will allow Dublin to showcase itself to a wide audience. Its head of public affairs, Stephen Browne, mentions that the Aer Lingus College Football Classic, an American college football game held in August 2023, was subsequently calculated by Grant Thornton to have brought in €180 million to the Irish economy.

But this event is something of an outlier. More than 80 per cent of its attendees were visitors to Ireland, with almost 38,000 people lured to Dublin from the US and more than 1,000 arriving from other parts of the world. Although some US-based Swifties – perhaps foiled in their attempt to obtain a ticket for her massively oversubscribed US dates – will have successfully tried their luck when the Dublin concerts went on sale in July 2023, they are unlikely to represent the majority of fans who will Shake It Off in the Aviva.

A closer precedent may be offered by the reported €35 million “boost” to the Dublin economy that Garth Brooks apparently delivered when he did five Croke Park dates in September 2022. Out of a total of 400,000 attendees, the five nights were said by Dublin Chamber at the time to have pulled in 120,000 fans from outside the Republic, all of them spending money on travel and hospitality.

Speaking of Croke Park, the biggest influx of concertgoers to Dublin this year is still two months from now, which is when British band Coldplay will play four sold-out nights at the 80,000-plus capacity venue as part of their Music of the Spheres tour. Their gigs, and Swift’s, bookend a packed season of concerts in Dublin, guaranteeing that it will not be a Cruel Summer for the city. But when it comes to putting a precise number on it, the sensible thing to do is leave a Blank Space.