England vs Spain dissected: Will Watkins start? Is Foden back? Is football coming home?

And so it all comes down to this.

England’s route to the European Championship final may not have been overly scenic, but they are in a second major tournament final in three years, with Spain awaiting in Berlin on Sunday.

So what are the issues keeping Gareth Southgate awake at night — and what are the answers? Our experts assemble for one last time to help find some solutions…

Have England been lucky — or quietly brilliant — to reach this final?

Jack Pitt-Brooke: I don’t think they have been quietly brilliant. They have only played well in short spells: the first halves against Serbia, Switzerland and most notably the Netherlands. They have probably played badly for more time than they have played well. But as Gareth Southgate would always say, tournaments are more than just playing the best football.

They are about staying in the game and seizing the moment. Some of that is down to luck: Southgate would never have banked on Jude Bellingham scoring a 95th-minute overhead kick against Slovakia. But it’s not all luck: staying calm under pressure isn’t luck, neither is finding a way to win late on in a game, or having a strong bench, or winning a penalty shootout. England have called on some different qualities this time.

Oliver Kay: What a question! They’ve been lucky. It’s OK to say that while also acknowledging there’s a certain skill in riding your luck when it comes. They played well for half an hour against Serbia, 45 minutes against both Switzerland and the Netherlands. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for reaching a final, but they’re not the first team to scrape their way to a final. They performed at a higher level at the last World Cup and didn’t reach the final. They were unlucky in Qatar, they’ve been lucky here. Over the course of Gareth Southgate’s tenure, they’ve earned some luck.

Mark Carey: There is a specific remit to be followed in major international tournaments. Qualify from your group — preferably top — and ensure that you do not lose during the knockout phase. You might go to extra time, you might go to penalties, but you must be pragmatic and prepared for all eventualities. Sometimes we appraise international football through the same lens as a domestic club season where performances are a greater indicator of success. We shouldn’t.

England have had luck at times, but meticulous preparation during their penalty shootout against Switzerland was anything but lucky. Individual quality has surpassed wider team cohesion at times, but England are in the final because they followed the remit to get there.

Jacob Whitehead: There has been luck — if Denmark had managed to beat a poor Serbia side, for example, they would have topped Group C above England. It is difficult, though not impossible, to see England beating Germany in Dortmund in their subsequent knockout game — but subsequent opponents would have included Spain in the quarters and France in the semis. This was not a road that would have taken England to Berlin. But in England’s knockout matches themselves, luck is not the right word. Bellingham’s overhead kick was many things, but it would be right to talk about technical ability and pressure-handling before fortune. The same goes for the penalties against Switzerland.

Jack Pitt-Brooke: If Southgate thinks he is fit enough to start, then yes. Trippier has worked incredibly hard this tournament, but he is never going to be the outlet, providing width down that side that England need him to be. Shaw provided a better balance against the Netherlands and England will need to cause Spain problems on Sunday if they are not just going to get pinned into their own half. If they are ahead then maybe Trippier can come in, but it feels right for Shaw to come into the team.

Oliver Kay: I’m going to annoy everyone here and say no — unless Trippier is injured. He played well again on Thursday night. Did England’s performance go up a level when he went off? Wasn’t it the opposite, if anything? It’s no reflection on Shaw, but it underlines the difficulty of assuming he guarantees an instant upgrade after so long out.

If they were both 100 per cent fit, I’d say Shaw. But Trippier hasn’t been the weak link many suggest. And I don’t mind the idea of a right-footer at left-back against Lamine Yamal, who loves to cut inside.

Luke Shaw is back to fitness for England (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)

Mark Carey: One reason to keep Trippier in the side is that the prodigious Yamal would be coming inside onto Trippier’s stronger right foot, which would help England. Nevertheless, we were reminded of Shaw’s penetrative running on the overlap and underlap against the Netherlands, that not only offered an option in behind but dragged opposition players with him as a tangible threat to their goal. It is not his fault that he is a right-footed player on the left flank, but Trippier has not quite offered that across the tournament.

Jacob Whitehead: A potential injury to Trippier makes this an easier decision. If England were to play four at the back, I would give serious consideration to playing both Shaw and Trippier, with the latter playing right-back instead of Kyle Walker. But Southgate’s back five seems to be working — taking the risk of playing Shaw from the start is worth it.

GO DEEPER

England, a team of comebacks, late winners and finals. These are extraordinary times

Jack Pitt-Brooke: No. Watkins provided one of the greatest moments in English football history on Wednesday night, but Kane is still integral to how this team plays and I can’t see Southgate dropping him for the final.

He is still so valuable for his hold-up play, his linking with team-mates, penalties, and the fact that if the ball is in the box — as against Denmark or Slovakia — he is the one you want the ball to fall to. But what we have seen is that Southgate knows how to manage Kane, to take him off when they need some extra energy, in a way that Portugal refused to do with Cristiano Ronaldo. And England are all the better for it.

Oliver Kay: Kane hasn’t been at his best or at his sharpest, but I would start him without any hesitation. Southgate has shown throughout this tournament that he’s prepared to take Kane off when he’s tiring and to replace him with Watkins or Ivan Toney. That’s exactly the way to do it. It’s showing the kind of flexibility and pragmatism Portugal coach Roberto Martinez didn’t show with Ronaldo. Southgate talks about “starters” and “finishers”. Watkins was the perfect “finisher” on Wednesday night — in more ways than one.

Mark Carey: Kane is certainly not going to be dropped for the final, but England do need a player who can drop in to overload central areas and a player who can stretch the defence. At the risk of cherry-picking examples, it is Kane’s lack of inclination to run in behind that allows the opposition to squeeze the pitch at times. In the example below, Kane shimmies towards Jude Bellingham on the ball (white arrow) despite a gap opening up between Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Ake (black arrow/area).

The situation is different, but Watkins’ desire to run beyond the last line is not only crucial to his goal, it gives Palmer the option to make that pass — running into space to stretch the opposition defence. Kane does not make those kinds of runs.

Jacob Whitehead: Two things can be true at once — Watkins was a far better option than Kane late in the game on Wednesday, but Kane is still the superior option to start on Sunday. For all the criticism of Kane, he has still found the positions to score important goals — the benefit for England is that in Watkins and Toney, Southgate has replacements who can make a difference early. If Kane is looking laboured, let him go all out for 60 minutes, rather than labour through 80 — and then make the change that suits the game.

Ollie Watkins stepped up after replacing Harry Kane for England on Wednesday (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)

England have scored crucial goals in games after Phil Foden has come off — is that a coincidence or a sign he shouldn’t start?

Jack Pitt-Brooke: Coincidence! Foden was brilliant on Wednesday night, probably the best we have ever seen him in an England shirt. It was the first time we have seen the true Foden, the City Foden, on the international stage. For the start of this tournament, the new Southgate system with two No 10s looked a bit confused and muddled, but now it finally feels like it works.

Foden nearly scored two brilliant goals: first the shot that Denzel Dumfries cleared off the line, then the one that hit the woodwork. So for now it feels like the debate about his role in the team should be settled for a while. The challenge is to know when it is time to replace him with someone like Cole Palmer, a move that worked brilliantly for England on Wednesday night.

Oliver Kay: Not everything has to be a damning reflection of a player. Foden’s first-half performance against the Netherlands was superb. He’s a wonderful player who has produced moments of high quality at this tournament without quite getting the luck. As with Kane, pick him and be prepared to replace him (in Foden’s case with Cole Palmer) if and when the need arises. It’s the same thing: starters and finishers.

Jacob Whitehead: Going back through my notes, there is one insignificant passage of play from the 43rd minute which stands out. The Dutch midblock is frustrating England’s build-up and Declan Rice goes right back between the centre-backs to receive the ball. It opens up a fraction of vertical space between the lines — and by the time Rice looks up, England’s left winger is already in it, receiving the ball, linking to Jude Bellingham, and sparking the chance. This repeated itself over and over in the first half — and between his opportunities, Foden was unfortunate not to score or assist. Achieving this number of involvements again is England’s key to beating Spain.

Phil Foden was bright in the first half against the Netherlands (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

Mark Carey: Foden has looked particularly strong since he drifted over to his familiar right-sided role that saw him have such an incredible season at Manchester City. There has rarely been an issue in Foden’s positioning or output on the ball, the issue has often been that the positions he picks up between opposition lines are not always found or punished by his team-mates.

In a final that will be of high technical quality, Foden is comfortably England’s most proficient talent on the ball. The idea that he is anything but a net positive when he is on the field would be a misunderstanding of his attributes.

GO DEEPER

Watkins, Palmer and an England goal that was worth the wait

How do England beat Spain?

Jack Pitt-Brooke: They will have to be very patient and resilient when they do not have the ball. They will have to defend brilliantly to stop Lamal and Williams, the two best players in the tournament so far. They will have to impose their physicality on Spain from the start. And they will have to be utterly ruthless when they go on the attack. They can do it, but they will have to be perfect.

Oliver Kay: Spain have been the most impressive team at this tournament — far more convincing than England — but we’re not talking about a team reaching the heights of the 2008-12 of Xavi, Iniesta et al, which is just as well.

Germany caused them problems in the quarter-final, as did France in the semi-final. They are not unbeatable. Their main threat comes from their wingers, Nico Williams and Yamal. I would prefer to see Southgate switch to a back four. I don’t want Bukayo Saka to spend the whole game looking over his shoulder at Williams.

Mark Carey: Germany provided a decent blueprint of stopping Spain in the first half of their quarter-final clash, with midfielders Ilkay Gundogan and Emre Can going man-for-man on Rodri and Fabian Ruiz during Spain’s build-up — preventing the pair from dictating the play.

There were countless examples where Germany pressed aggressively to ensure that neither received the ball in their own third. This forced Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon to frequently launch the ball long, often conceding possession in the process.

If England can maintain similar discipline across the full game — potentially dropping Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden on the Spanish midfielders — it could prevent Spain’s engine from purring.

Jacob Whitehead: They need to retain an attacking outlet, rather than solely sitting deep to soak up pressure — one of the few weaknesses which Spain may have is aerially, so facilitating service to Saka and the wing-backs is important, which should open up space for Foden inside. Bellingham and Kane are excellent box-crashers. Then, it’s the fundamentals — don’t overcommit, but remain brave, and be better in the big moments.

Is football coming home?

Jack Pitt-Brooke: Spain are the better team but I just feel England have an ominous aura now, an ability to win from any position. England to win after extra time.

Oliver Kay: I feel as I did going into the Euro 2020 final against Italy. It feels like a coin-toss, or something close to it. If you’re going to insist I climb down from the fence, I’ll say Spain to win 2-1, possibly after extra time. But it really could happen for England, you know. It really could.

Mark Carey: Unfortunately not. Spain have been a class above every team at the tournament, so it is no criticism of England to say that this might just be a step too far for them on Sunday evening.

Jacob Whitehead: No. Spain has both the tournament’s outstanding individual players and the tournament’s outstanding system. Spain to go ahead in the first half and hold on, like last summer’s Women’s World Cup final.

Our experts’ starting XIs for Sunday

(Top photo: Inaki Esnaola/Getty Images)