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Euro 2024: Chris Sutton’s semi-final predictions – BBC Sport

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Euro 2024: Chris Sutton’s semi-final predictions – BBC Sport

The finishing line is in sight, but which of the four teams left in Euro 2024 will make it to the final in Berlin on 14 July?

Like England’s penalty takers against Switzerland, BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton did not put a foot wrong with his predictions for the quarter-finals, getting all four results correct.

The majority of you were spot on each time too – although, out of more than 160,000 votes, only 57% of you thought England would beat the Swiss, the lowest proportion of the teams you correctly backed.

Still, that means like Sutton you have a success rate of 54% overall, after getting a total of 26 predictions right from the 48 games played in Germany so far.

  • Author, Chris Bevan
  • Role, BBC Sport Journalist in Berlin

Can you get the better of him in the semi-finals? You can make your predictions below for France – Sutton’s pre-tournament pick to win the European Championship – versus Spain and England against the Netherlands.

SEMI-FINALS

TUESDAY, 9 JULY

Spain v France

I’m in a bit of a pickle here, because before a ball was kicked I went for France to win Euro 2024.

Didier is an old friend of mine because we joined Chelsea at the same time in 1999 and stayed in the same hotel. We used to play cards together, as a pair, and he was always quite cautious then… but nothing compared to how he has got his team playing now.

When I think of the France football team, I think of flair and flamboyance, starting with Michel Platini’s side that won the 1984 European Championship. Their sides that have won major honours in the years since then have been the same.

This version of Les Bleus, though, has been utter dross to watch.

Defensively, they have been excellent. As a centre-half pairing, William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano have been absolutely outstanding and Mike Maignan has been superb in goal too.

Attack-wise though, I was just shocked by their level of performance against Portugal. Ousmane Dembele came on and made a difference, but Kylian Mbappe has not got going at all.

Video caption, Highlights: Spain 2-1 Germany

In contrast, Spain have been the team of the tournament. Their quarter-final win over Germany took a little while to get going, but it was brilliant once it did.

Spain are doing it a very different way to France, and England too, and they have been very impressive in everything they have done – other than maybe not being ruthless enough at times.

Their manager Luis de la Fuente will have to make changes for this game, because Robin le Normand and Dani Carvajal are both suspended, while Pedri will miss the rest of the tournament with a knee injury.

If I was being logical about this, I would still say Spain will win – Lamine Yamal is so exciting, Nico Williams has arguably been the player of the tournament, and Rodri and Fabian Ruiz run things in the middle of the pitch – but I just have a feeling that France will get through.

Of course Mbappe could play like the superstar he is, or Dembele could cause Marc Cucurella problems if he starts… but it is more likely that France will just smother Spain and, even if they do not play well, get the job done.

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WEDNESDAY, 10 JULY

Netherlands v England

Wout Weghorst’s physicality made the difference for the Dutch against Turkey after he came on at half-time when they were 1-0 down.

England manager Gareth Southgate has been accused of not being decisive enough with his substitutions, but Ronald Koeman got it right for the Netherlands there.

Rather than trying to be intricate and playing through Turkey, they got the ball wide, crossed it in and Weghorst was a massive threat.

I do not necessarily think he will start against England, but they will have him as an option on the bench if they need him.

It is not just Weghorst that England have to watch out for though, because Cody Gakpo will be dangerous too.

Gakpo probably has not delivered the form we expected from him for Liverpool, but he has had his moments. For the Netherlands, though, he has been their best player at this tournament.

Video caption, Highlights: Netherlands 2-1 Turkey

There is the possibility that, like England against Switzerland, the Netherlands will move to playing with three at the back for this game. Koeman often does that when he faces stronger teams.

If the teams do match up with the same formation, I think England have a better midfield than the Dutch duo of Jerdy Schouten and Tijjani Reijnders.

The problem is that, in an attacking capacity, England just have not turned up yet.

They have relied on some big moments so far, but the equalisers Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka scored against Slovakia and Switzerland were both with their team’s first shot on target of the game.

So, how do you call this? I don’t think anything is going to drastically change in the way England play – they are not going to suddenly find some amazing patterns of play that break the Netherlands down.

Instead, if England are going to reach their second successive Euros final, they are going to have to rely on individual brilliance again.

I have not just been blindly backing them to get through each knockout round in Germany but they are definitely on the more gentle side of the draw.

This is their toughest game yet, and it is going to be very close, but I do think England will edge it… somehow.

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