Fantasy Stats: Quarterback Target Tendencies to Running Backs

Running backs have lost some appeal in the world of fantasy football, as the emergence of the passing game has made wide receiver the position of choice in drafts. With that said, runners who can catch the ball out of the backfield or play in offenses that target backs as receivers have added appeal, especially in leagues that reward points for catches.

To find which runners can help fantasy managers most as receivers, here are the quarterbacks and offenses that targeted the position the most … and the least … in 2024.

Note: Quarterbacks in this research started a minimum of 10 games last season.

Most Targets

1. Russell Wilson, Broncos (29.5%): Wilson is no longer in Denver, so this could indicate either Bo Nix or Zach Wilson will throw to his runners in 2024. What’s interesting about the stat though, is that Wilson’s new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, liked to throw to his backs last season. In fact, Desmond Ridder was second among quarterbacks in terms of targeting the position (he’s not on this list because he’s now a backup). Still, that stat is good news for the value of Jaylen Warren as a pass catcher.

2. Brock Purdy, 49ers (23.4%): When your starting running back is Christian McCaffrey, it’s no surprise the offense targets backs as receivers at a high rate. This trend will remain in 2024, so look for Purdy to look to CMC often again.

3. Derek Carr, Saints (22.3%): Much like Purdy and McCaffrey, it’s no surprise to see Carr ranked highly on this list because of Alvin Kamara. Even the great Drew Brees had a high percentage of his passes go to runners once the Saints added Kamara. Obviously, I’d look for this tendency to continue in 2024.

4. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (21.8%): The Dolphins fielded two good pass-catching backs last season, Raheem Mostert and De’Vone Achane, but they combined for just 69 targets and 52 catches. Still, Tagovailoa was one of just eight quarterbacks who fit our parameters and finished with a percentage of passes thrown to backs at over 20%. With a backfield committee projected again, neither back will see his reception totals pop.

T-5. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (16.9%): Mahomes has been consistent in percentage of passes to runners, finishing between 16%-18% the last four years. That’s good news for Isiah Pacheco, who had 44 catches last season and could see more with Jerick McKinnon no longer on the roster. I wouldn’t expect a huge jump, however, as the Chiefs added two new wideouts in the offseason, Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.

T-5. Jared Goff, Lions (16.9%): This was the first season Goff’s percentage of passes to running backs was under 20 in his three seasons in Detroit. That’s due to the emergence of both Amon-Ra St. Brown and, more notably, Sam LaPorta as prominent offensive parts. Still, Jahmyr Gibbs hauled in 52 passes as a rookie. I’d project him to be somewhere in that ballpark again.

Notes: Six of the quarterbacks who finished in the top 10 in percentage of passes that went to running backs last season are no longer projected starters. That includes Ridder, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields and Sam Howell. I don’t know if that’s a coincidence, but it sure is an interesting little statistical nugget. Checking down doesn’t seem to equal job security!

Fewest Targets

1. Matthew Stafford, Rams (12.3%): Simply stated, running backs haven’t been targeted much in the last few seasons under coach Sean McVay. Even dating back to Goff’s time in his offense, the Rams have always been near the bottom in this department. So, while we did see Kyren Williams catch 32 passes in 12 games last year, it’s difficult to project a Rams running back to catch more than 40 passes based on the system.

2. C.J. Stroud, Texans (12.8%): This should be a surprise to no one, as almost 64% of Stroud’s pass attempts last season went to wide receivers. When you consider the Texans added Stefon Diggs to a group that already includes Nico Collins and Tank Dell, well, this low percentage isn’t likely to increase this season. That could make it tough for Joe Mixon, who caught 52 passes in his final season in Cincinnati, to hit that mark again in 2024.

3. Joe Burrow, Bengals (12.9%): Burrow missed seven games last season due to injuries, but he still met our parameters with his 10 starts. In those games, he was third to last targeting running backs. He had been between 17%-21% in his previous three years, so last season appeared to be an outlier. Of course, that could change with a new offensive lead man in Dan Pitcher. Regardless, I wouldn’t expect either Zack Moss or Chase Brown to catch more than a combined 60-70 passes (At the highe end) in their new backfield.

4. Justin Herbert, Chargers (14.3%): Herbert went from first in targeting running backs in 2022 (Austin Ekeler effect) to fourth to last in 2023. To project what his stats might look like under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, I looked at what his quarterbacks did in his previous 10 years in that role. Just once did his quarterback throw to his backs more than 20% of the time, and Lamar Jackson was constantly near the bottom of the league in this department when Roman was the OC in Baltimore. That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers re-vamped backfield, though Gus Edwards isn’t much of a pass catcher. Still, don’t expect big catch totals from J.K. Dobbins or Kimani Vidal.

5. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (14.7%): No matter who has been his offensive coordinator, Lawrence hasn’t thrown the ball to his backs. In fact, he’s never had a higher percentage than 15.4 in his three pro seasons. The good news, however, is that it hasn’t hurt Travis Etienne’s PPR value. Because he’s a featured back, Etienne still saw 73 targets and had a solid 58 catches a season ago and remains an RB1 fantasy option.

Notes: A total of 11 of the 27 quarterbacks who started at least 10 games last season had a pass percentage of under 16 when it came to targeting running backs. It includes big names like Stafford, Stroud, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Out of this group, only Burrow (who was injured in some of his starts and had a subpar season) had a points-per-game average of fewer than 16.2 in standard leagues.