Shooting four-under on day three when tied for the halfway lead was surely job done for AKSHAY BHATIA and Aaron Rai. But in a birdie-fest like the Rocket Mortgage Classic, those 68s which took them to 17-under weren’t quite strong enough. Two clear after 36, the joint-pacesetters saw that lead cut in half to just one after more wild scoring at Detroit Golf Club.
A pair of Cams – former Rocket Mortgage champ Davis (66) and ‘when’s he going to win?’ Young (67) – are right on their heels while Sam Stevens (66) and Erik van Rooyen (68) sit two off the pace and are very much in the hunt.
Despite the imagined variance of a tournament where birdies and eagles fly, the five editions of this newish PGA Tour stop suggest otherwise. Every winner was in the top three after 54 holes and three of those had a piece of top spot. That suggests one of the two leaders will be hoisting the trophy.
Seven players are quoted at under 20/1 which is fairly unusual for this stage. Bhatia leads the way at 11/4, with Rai 10/3 and Young 4/1. Davis is 15/2 to repeat his 2021 victory when he closed with a 67 to win a playoff against Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann and the Rocket Mortgage going to extra holes for the third time in four years is definitely a runner.
Stevens trades at 16/1 while Min Woo Lee, three back in tied seventh, is 18s. Perhaps the best storyline revolves around Luke Clanton, who sounds like he’s the son of a paper merchant. The amateur shot a brilliant 65 on Saturday to move up 19 places to tied seventh and is now 40/1 to triumph. Clanton is also three off the pace as he aims to become the second amateur winner of the season following the victory for Nick Dunlap (in 10th place here incidentally and 66/1) at The American Express.
The putter has been a decisive weapon in this event so, on the evidence so far, I’d shy away from Young (35th for SG: putting) and Dunlap (43rd). Four of the five winners were also in the top 10 for SG: approach for the week and that also helps us whittle the shortlist down. Stevens (54th), van Rooyen (47th), Clanton (30th) and MW Lee (50th) are all a little too far down that list for comfort.
That leaves us with the top three. Bhatia is 3rd for approach and 14th for putting, with Rai 5th and 2nd in those same two categories. Davis has good numbers too: 9th for putting and 12th for approach. Before making a decision, note that England’s David Skinns is 1st for approach. If you want a wild final-round bet, he’s 300/1 with three places from five back (T14). Also 25th for putting, Skinns is 225s with four places.
A few quotes from that top three may help us. Bhatia said: “I wouldn’t say everything felt super sharp today, but I’m right there. I know I can win, I know I have the game and if there’s anything I can lean on is being uncomfortable’s okay. I love it, I enjoy it so I’m just going to keep using that in my favour. Last week I was right there for a long time and obviously didn’t get it done, but I’m excited for this.”
Rai, who is seeking a first PGA Tour win to go with his two on the DP World Tour (Hong Kong 2018 and Scottish Open 2020), gave this summary: “Really pleased with how I played tee to green. Made some good putts within kind of 10, 12 feet to keep the round going as well. Another good solid day overall. It’s always fun playing with Akshay. We know each other pretty well and it was nice today that we both played well and kind of kept the rounds going and kind of fed off each other at certain times.”
As for Davis, the 2021 winner said: “Letting a couple of par-fives go on the back nine was kind of frustrating, but it was nice to back both of those up with a birdie on the hole after. I turned in a really good scorecard. I’m very happy with my work today and looking forward to tomorrow.”
It’s all positive stuff but Bhatia seems particularly enthused. And I always like the angle of someone being in contention very recently (last week in his case), not winning, and then getting a chance to put that right. Often at this stage of an event we’re asked to take a short price on a leader but the 11/4 about Bhatia looks fine to me despite the bunched leaderboard.
For a top 10 bet, I’ll return to DAVID SKINNS. I like the 42-year-old Englishman’s numbers and he’s already posted a fourth (Cognizant) and a seventh (Houston Open) this season. Two top-25s (Canadian Open and Myrtle Beach) in his last three starts add to a solid body of work.
Skinns is a three-time Korn Ferry winner too (2018, 2021 and 2023) while he’s a pretty healthy 58th in final-round scoring (69.57) on the PGA Tour this season. Still a fairly anonymous character to most audiences, he ended round three just one shot out of the top 10. Fresh after resting up following the Canadian Open, he’s 100/30 to make it in there and that includes ties with Betfair.
Posted at 0950 BST on 30/06/24
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