Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes sees a rematch between the first two colts in the 2000 Guineas, Notable Speech and Rosallion. While many were expecting City of Troy to keep his unbeaten record beforehand, instead it was Charlie Appleby’s 16/1 shot Notable Speech who took his record to four wins from four starts with a performance at Newmarket that marked him out as a potentially top-class miler.
Having made his debut only in January, Notable Speech was making his turf debut in the Guineas after three wins at Kempton and made a big impression, travelling powerfully and impressing with a sharp turn of foot that took him clear over a furlong out before beating Rosallion by a length and a half.
The free-going Rosallion improved on his already smart form at two for Richard Hannon when runner-up at Newmarket. He won three of his four starts last year, notably the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, but also a listed race at Ascot which gives him course experience and proves his effectiveness on good to soft ground should that prove relevant at the Royal meeting.
Since Newmarket, Rosallion has gained a second Group 1 success in the Irish 2000 Guineas when conceding first run to his stablemate Haatem (third at Newmarket) but staying on to catch him on the line. That didn’t require any improvement on Rosallion’s part but it will be a different story if he’s to turn the tables on Notable Speech.
Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes looks like being another round in an ongoing rivalry between distant relatives White Birch and Auguste Rodin. Their first two meetings last year were one-sided affairs, firstly when Auguste Rodin had White Birch more than five lengths back in third in the Derby and more especially when Auguste Rodin followed up in the Irish Derby in which White Birch finished last when sent off second favourite.
White Birch ended his three-year-old campaign with a better effort when fourth in a Group 3 contest at Leopardstown but Auguste Rodin won the Irish Champion Stakes on the same card before going on to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
But events the season have not just brought the pair closer together but have even given John Murphy’s grey the upper hand on Timeform ratings, with White Birch now rated 128, a pound in front of Auguste Rodin.
Not for the first time, the latter ran no sort of race when making his return in the Dubai Sheema Classic, whereas White Birch has gone from strength to strength at the Curragh this spring, progressing from wins in the Alleged Stakes and Mooresbridge Stakes to give a three-length beating to Auguste Rodin in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time where the dual Derby winner put his dismal effort at Meydan behind him but was still very much second best.
White Birch is almost certainly better at around a mile and a quarter than the Derby trip but the outcome of this head-to-head could prove dependent on the ground at Ascot. White Birch has done all his winning this season on ground softer good, whereas the pick of Auguste Rodin’s form is on firmer going.
Thursday’s Gold Cup should have been a head-to-head between the last two winners but while Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios is back in an attempt to regain the top staying prize he won in 2022 having missed last year’s race through injury, this time it’s last year’s winner Courage Mon Ami who is absent following a setback. However, the latter’s connections, John and Thady Gosden and owners Wathnan Racing, could still provide the main threat to Kyprios with very smart four-year-old Gregory.
Kyprios had triple Gold Cup winner Stradivarius back in third when successful at Royal Ascot two years ago during an unbeaten season of dominance as Europe’s top stayer. While he was beaten in the Irish St Leger and Ascot’s Long Distance Cup when returning to action last autumn, two straightforward wins in lesser company in Ireland this spring suggest Kyprios is ready for his bid to be the first since Kayf Tara in 2000 to regain the Gold Cup.
Like Kyprios, Gregory is also a Royal Ascot winner already, having won last year’s Queen’s Vase, while his fifth place in the St Leger on the softest ground he’s yet encountered did little to dent hopes that he’d make into a Cup horse as a four-year-old.
A rangy colt, Gregory made an encouraging reappearance when third to Giavellotto in the Yorkshire Cup, shaping as though he’ll do better still when faced with a thorough test of stamina. He’s open to more improvement therefore, but that will be very much needed if Kyprios is anywhere near his high-class best.
Friday’s chosen head-to-head is a bit different from the rest in that we’re dealing with a couple of largely unknown quantities but it’s no less intriguing for that. Fairy Godmother, for Aidan O’Brien, and Mountain Breeze, for Charlie Appleby, look two of the most exciting two-year-old fillies seen out so far and some bookmakers are finding them impossible to split in the Albany Stakes betting.
There’s little between the pair on Timeform ratings too, the Ballydoyle filly on 98p and Godolphin’s on 96p, so it will largely come down to which of them can find the more improvement at Ascot. O’Brien has won the Albany twice, including with Meditate two years ago, and like that filly (and last year’s Albany winner Porta Fortuna), Fairy Godmother goes to Ascot after winning the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas.
Fairy Godmother was all the rage in the betting and did well to get up for a neck win in the final strides, still looking green when first asked for her effort and then having to switch round the two leaders. She improved sufficiently to turn the tables on runner-up Sparkling Sea who’d beaten her under softer conditions when they’d made their debuts at the same track.
Mountain Breeze hasn’t been tried so highly but won both her novices at Newmarket in May in really good style and landed the odds under a penalty with plenty in hand when stepped up to six furlongs last time. The placed horses haven’t done much for that form since, admittedly, though runner-up New Charter had excuses when sent off favourite for the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom. By Lope de Vega, Mountain Breeze is closely related to Godolphin’s top-class two-year-old Pinatubo who was a Royal Ascot winner himself in the Chesham Stakes.
Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes is another race where some of the bookmakers are struggling to find a clear favourite. The clash here is between Ralph Beckett’s established Group 1 sprinter Kinross and Jane Chapple-Hyam’s thriving younger rival Mill Stream. Seven years old now, Kinross is a tough and consistent gelding, just as good over seven furlongs as he is at six, and has a good record at Ascot, at least in the autumn, when he has finished first and second in the last two editions of the Champions Sprint Stakes.
However, he hasn’t made the same impact in Royal’s Ascot’s Group 1 six-furlong contest, finishing eighth in 2022 and only one place better last year when quite weak in the market and shaping as if he’d come on for his first run of the season. While his stable is currently firing on all cylinders, Kinross himself hasn’t hit winning form until later in the year in the last couple of seasons.
Mill Stream, on the other hand, has two runs under his belt already this year and, after a creditable second in the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket on his reappearance, he went one better in the 1895 Duke of York Stakes when coming off a strong gallop to edge out Shouldvebeenaring by a nose.
Mill Stream graduated from handicaps to win in listed and Group 3 company at Deauville last summer, and while he found Group 1 sprints a bit too hot last autumn (including when behind Kinross at Ascot), he’s potentially more of a force to reckon with now as a four-year-old, having had a breathing operation since last year, while a well-run race over a stiffer six should suit him too.
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