Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX:FLT) sheds AU$132m, company earnings and investor returns have been trending downwards for past five years

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn’t blame long term Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX:FLT) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 56% over a half decade.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let’s investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

See our latest analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Flight Centre Travel Group moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it’s counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

The modest 1.1% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. It could be that the revenue decline of 13% per year is viewed as evidence that Flight Centre Travel Group is shrinking. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.

The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Flight Centre Travel Group

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Flight Centre Travel Group, it has a TSR of -50% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Flight Centre Travel Group shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 8% doled out over the last five years. We’d need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. Before spending more time on Flight Centre Travel Group it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.