Football permutations – Final round of group phase

The final round of the All-Ireland group phase, the one in which the GAA assure us that drama will show its face.

“Are they out yet, so?” has been the query of the casual fan at regular intervals over the course of this summer. Finally, after this weekend, the answer, at least in the case of four counties, will be “yes”.

Minimal mathematical complications in a couple of the groups, though Group 3 requires some working out. Permutations for each of the four groups are below.

GROUP 1

Were the majority of respondents to have their way and the preliminary quarter-finals be done away with, then Groups 1 and 2 would be facing into a dead rubber weekend.

It was out of fear of that outcome that the GAA originally opted to allow three teams progress from the group phase. Critics nonetheless still argue that this sacrifices too much in the way of jeopardy in the opening two rounds and lowers the stakes from the get-go.

Simultaneous throw-ins aren’t necessary in either Group 1 of Group 2. The Galway-Armagh and Derry-Westmeath games have no direct impact on one another this weekend and the permutations are straightforward.

Galway and Armagh are vying for top spot in the group, while Derry and Westmeath are duking it out for third and retaining their interest in the 2024 championship.

An added wrinkle is that a draw in Markievicz Park would be sufficient for Armagh to top the group. Kieran McGeeney’s side have a score difference of +16 compared to Galway’s +9.

In that sense, it is more straightforward than the 2023 meeting between the pair. Last year, Armagh pipped Galway by a point in a dramatic finale in Carrick-on-Shannon to finish top on a head-to-head basis. It would have been all in vain had Tyrone not failed to beat Westmeath in the simultaneous game at Kingspan Breffni – a Tyrone victory, which was expected, would have resulted in a three-way tie with Galway comfortably ahead on score difference.

No such complications in 2024.

In the game in Newry, meanwhile, a draw would be sufficient to allow Westmeath to advance on one point, with the league champions exiting the championship after a shockingly abject summer campaign.

If Derry dig it out a win, they will progress but an away qualifier a week later would be their reward. Possibly – who knows – against Louth, a match which would come freighted with enough sub-plots, thank you very much.

WHAT’S NEEDED THIS WEEKEND?

Armagh – win or draw to top the group; will finish 2nd if beaten
Galway – win to top group; any other result will see them finish 2nd
Westmeath – win or draw to advance in 3rd; defeat will eliminate them
Derry – win to advance in 3rd; any other result will eliminate them.

Fixtures

Derry v Westmeath, Páirc Esler, Sat 7pm
Galway v Armagh, Markievicz Park, Sun 1.45pm

GROUP 2

More or less the same scenario as Group 1. Mayo and Dublin battle it out for top spot, while Roscommon and Cavan fight to stay alive.

There wasn’t a whole pile of fight in Cavan in the opening two rounds and their score difference stands at -28 after a nine-point loss in Castlebar and a 19-point reversal at home to Dublin, where they shipped five goals.

In the absence of Paddy Lynch, who accounted for a huge proportion of their scores in both the league and the Ulster championship, they’ve scored just 1-21 and conceded 5-37.

Roscommon, who have an excellent modern head-to-head record against Cavan, require only a draw in Glennon Brothers Pearse Park to progress.

In Hyde Park, Mayo meet Dublin for the 12th time in championship since 2012 – a game previewed by one of this fixture’s most notable protagonists, Lee Keegan, in his column this morning.

Two double digit victories over Roscommon and Cavan have given the All-Ireland champions a massive +31 score difference. Only a draw will be required to see them nail down top spot, though they’ll likely want to make a statement by managing more than that.

Mayo’s sloppiness around permutations saw them fall into third spot rather than second in their final group game last summer.

Aidan O’Shea chose to drop his injury-time free into the square against Cork when only a point was needed to nudge Mayo above the Rebels on score difference. Given their patchy championship record at MacHale Park, perhaps it was all for the best. They wound up beating Galway by a point in the Salthill preliminary quarter-final but crashed into a blue wall the following week.

WHAT’S NEEDED THIS WEEKEND?

Dublin – win or draw to top group; defeat for 2nd
Mayo – win to top group; any other result for 2nd
Roscommon – win or draw to advance in 3rd; defeat eliminates them
Cavan – win to advance in 3rd; any other result will eliminate them

Fixtures

Roscommon v Cavan, Glennon Brothers Pearse Park, Sat 5pm
Mayo v Dublin, Dr Hyde Park, Sun 3.45pm

GROUP 3

A rather more complicated group to tease out with three teams in the hunt for top spot and the direct route to the quarter-finals.

Cork’s surprise win over Ulster champions Donegal has parachuted them into the reckoning here and guaranteed their progression from the group, at least.

They face Tyrone in a Tullamore double-header, with their similarly buoyant hurlers playing Joe McDonagh champions Offaly straight afterwards.

A result of any sort for John Cleary’s side – win or draw – will see them take top spot and likely send the two Ulster sides into a preliminary quarter-final.

A defeat to Tyrone, combined with an expected Donegal victory over Clare in Castlebar, would leave a three-way tie on four points and a score difference foot-race.

Tyrone (+7) are currently edging it in that battle after their second half demolition of Clare in Omagh.

Though in this scenario, Donegal (+5) would perhaps be fancied to beat Clare by a bigger margin than we see in Tullamore and overhaul their provincial rivals.

In such a scenario, Cork (+4) would be destined to finish in third given their inferior score difference.

Clare, highly competitive against Cork but overwhelmed after half-time in Tyrone, could still survive with a final day win over Donegal – though it would likely be in vain if Tyrone lose in Tullamore. If that came to pass, there would be a three-way tie on two points, with Clare (-16) needing to overhaul a massive score difference disparity to remain alive.

A Clare win combined with a Tyrone result (win or draw) in Tullamore would sensationally eliminate Donegal from the championship.

Tyrone have been stirring up apathy within their own borders this year – a couple of thousand tickets were handed back for the Ballybofey game, which they lost by seven in the end.

Yet, they will top the group here if they can somehow beat Cork by a the same or a bigger margin – or indeed, one less – that Donegal muster against Clare.

Alternatively, it would simplify things if they beat Cork and Donegal fail to win. In that case, they would top the group from Cork on the head-to-head basis.

WHAT’S NEEDED THIS WEEKEND?

Cork – win or draw to finish top; defeat will likely see them finish 3rd unless Donegal fail to beat Clare – in which case, they’ll place 2nd.
Tyrone – a victory combined with a Clare win or draw in Castlebar will deliver top spot. They could still come top if their winning margin over Cork is the same (or more or even one less) as Donegal’s over Clare. If their score difference is identical to Donegal’s after they both win this weekend, it will come down to total scored – currently Tyrone (38), Donegal (37).
Donegal – a win or draw against Clare to ensure progression. Can top group if Tyrone win in Tullamore by a margin three points narrower than their win over Clare. A defeat against Clare combined with Tyrone avoiding defeat against Cork will eliminate Donegal.
Clare – Win over Donegal combined with Tyrone result against Cork to advance. Should Tyrone lose to Cork, Clare will likely need to overhaul a large score difference to survive, which will depend on margin of Tyrone’s loss. To overtake Donegal on score difference would require an 11-point victory.

Fixtures

Cork v Tyrone, Glenisk O’Connor Park, Sat 3pm
Donegal v Clare, Hastings Insurance MacHale Park, Sat 3pm

GROUP 4

In the same round and at the same venue last year, Kerry gave Louth a ferocious 28-point pounding in what transpired to be the last game of Mickey Harte’s reign.

Jack O’Connor’s side are already guaranteed at worst a home preliminary quarter-final and a draw against Louth will assure them of the direct route to the last-eight.

Louth are already safely through to the knockout phase and will have a home preliminary quarter-final unless Monaghan beat Meath while overhauling a 20-point score differential in the process.

Ger Brennan’s side are at +10 thanks to their heavy win over Meath, while Monaghan are still -10 from the defeat in Killarney. Head-to-head irrelevant after the draw in Clones.

Entirely straightforward for reigning Tailteann Cup champions Meath, who’ve appeared out of their depth at this level so far. A win sees them advance at Monaghan’s expense. Anything else and they shall take their leave of the championship.

WHAT’S NEEDED THIS WEEKEND?

Kerry – Win or draw to top group; defeat will drop them to 2nd only.
Louth – Guaranteed knockout place, win to top group. Draw to finish 2nd. Loss will see them finish 2nd provided Monaghan don’t overhaul 20-point score differential.
Monaghan – Win or draw to advance to knockouts. Will finish 3rd unless see above. Loss will eliminate them.
Meath – Only a win will preserve their interest in 2024 championship.

Fixtures

Kerry v Louth, Laois Hire O’Moore Park, Sun 3pm
Monaghan v Meath, Kingspan Breffni, Sun 3pm