Andy Schooler looks to sign off a highly profitable French Open with another winner in Sunday’s men’s singles final – check out what he’s backing.
Alex Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz (1400 BST)
“If not now, then when?”
That was the question Alex Zverev asked himself following Friday night’s semi-final win as he looked ahead to this match and, possibly, his maiden Grand Slam title.
Now 27, the German admitted in the same interview that he “wasn’t ready” to win when he lost the 2020 US Open final to Dominic Thiem from a seemingly unbeatable position of two sets and a break up.
There’s certainly a feeling this could be his time.
After a patchy start to 2024, he found his form at just the right time, winning the Rome Masters before heading here. He’s now on a 12-match winning run and confidence is certainly up.
For those who like the fate element, it’s also notable that his much-publicised court case over domestic abuse allegations has now gone away – a settlement was reached on Friday with no guilt attached to Zverev.
Frankly, it probably had to be sorted – there would have been a huge storm had Zverev won this match with the allegations still hanging over his head.
The fourth seed has seemingly managed to put those off-court problems firmly to one side – I considered it a concern coming into the event – and looks pretty well prepared for this contest.
It is one he will start a considerable outsider for, though.
Alcaraz is widely regarded as the best claycourter in the world these days and he’s also put pre-tournament problems aside – a forearm injury which saw him miss key warm-up events hasn’t been an issue in Paris.
He’s dropped fewer sets en route to the final (3 v 5) and has spent three hours less on court than Zverev, this despite having received a tougher draw.
Alcaraz has beaten Sebastian Korda, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner in the last four rounds with only Sinner able to lay a glove on him.
Alcaraz came from two sets to one down in that one on Friday and while energy was clearly expended in doing so, that should give him confidence about being able to come through the tough tests.
In terms of his game, I feel the Spaniard is best equipped to win this match.
I’ve already mentioned his ability to turn defence into attack this week, while he’s also adept at changing and creating incredible angles – one crosscourt backhand winner against Sinner when he looked out of the rally had to be seen to be believed.
Zverev does have the power to live with Alcaraz from the back of the court mind and if he can have consistent depth on his groundstrokes, there’s a decent chance he’ll be able to force Alcaraz to hit too many low-percentage shots.
Much is made of the Zverev serve – he won 86% of first-serve points during his semi-final win over an ill Casper Ruud – but I’m not convinced it will win him this match.
While he’s won more first-serve points this tournament than Alcaraz, his second serve is five percentage points worse than his opponent – it’s not hard to see Zverev throwing in some double faults if that shot comes under pressure.
The head-to-head stats suggest it will, too, with Zverev winning only 45% of second-serve points against Alcaraz in their nine previous meetings. Significantly, Alcaraz also holds a lead on first-serve points won in that H2H (74% v 71%).
While I do think those stats are relevant, I’m not sure huge weight can be put on their H2H – frankly, it’s wild.
Zverev actually leads 5-4 but, less surprisingly, he’s 2-1 down on clay. That said, the German won their only previous clash on this court – in the 2022 quarter-finals.
If you take a close look, the lack of consistency is stark.
In all four of his wins, Alcaraz has not has his serve broken, including the most recent in Indian Wells earlier this season when he lost only four games.
To me, that suggests if he serves well, Alcaraz will likely win.
Another key factor for me if the experience one.
Alcaraz has already won two Grand Slams. Indeed, he’s never lost in a major final.
Zverev’s experience is rather more downbeat. Is he still scarred by that incredible loss to Thiem? There has to be a chance it’s on his mind when he steps out on Sunday when he will be bidding to win at this level for the first time.
Finally, we get to the odds – Alcaraz is just 4/11 for victory.
I feel that’s a little short and can certainly see why people might want to back Zverev at 5/2.
The thing is, I do believe Alcaraz is the most likely winner and with that difficult to shift in my mind, I want to find a way of getting with him to win a fairly close match.
Zverev may well be able cover the 4.5-game handicap but my preference is to return to a bet that earned us profit in the semi-finals, namely Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set.
That’s on offer at 11/8.
In the serve markets that have again served us well at this tournament, it’s tempting to back Alcaraz to break serve under 4.5 times.
He’s never broken he Zverev serve five times in a match before and while clearly several of those matches have been played in the best-of-three-sets format, he’s also managed only eight breaks in the 11 sets they’ve played at the Slams.
What puts me off is that strange head-to-head which has seen their matches lack a real pattern.
On this occasion, I’ll sit it out, safe in the knowledge this has already been a highly profitable tournament for this column – I hope plenty of you made a few pennies along the way.
I’ll be back on Sunday with my outright preview of next week’s grasscourt tournaments in Stuttgart and Den Bosch, while the daily match-bets column will return at Wimbledon in a few weeks’ time.
Posted at 1615 BST on 08/06/24
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