Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Mariano Navone to beat Tomas Machac at 11/8 (General)
0.5pt Alexander Bublik to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at 11/4 (General)
*1pt Fabian Marozsan to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 5/2 (General)
*Marozsan/Dimitrov match carried over to Thursday
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Fabian Marozsan v Grigor Dimitrov (match carried over to Thursday)
Plenty of rain got onto the courts on Tuesday and heavy conditions won’t suit Dimitrov, but Marozsan’s power, especially on the forehand side, should cause plenty of problems.
He’s capable of hitting through the court and if he keeps the error count low, I feel this could be a tough day for the hit-and-miss Dimitrov, who has gone just 5-3 on the clay so far.
The Hungarian is also capable of using the drop shot well so should be able to get Dimitrov out of his rhythm.
This is one of those matches where the price gap looks too wide and I’m happy to take a chance on the underdog at 5/2.
Mariano Navone v Tomas Machac
Navone is the natural claycourter in this match-up and I like his chances as the underdog.
Machac is enjoying a strong season, as highlighted by last week’s win over Novak Djokovic and subsequent final appearance in Geneva.
But the altitude there produces quicker conditions than these two will find at soggy Roland Garros on Thursday and those should play into Navone’s hands.
Like Machac, he’s been one of the breakout stars of 2024, his run to the Rio Open final in February announcing his name to the wider tennis world. He’s since been to another final in Bucharest and the semis in Marrakech.
Conditions don’t come a great deal slower than Rio and Navone is a player that chases down a lot of balls at the best of times. He certainly ground down a rusty Pablo Carreno Busta in round one.
Also capable of countering well when the opportunity arises, I’d expect him to trouble Machac, whose serve is attackable.
Machac’s experience in these conditions – indeed on clay as a whole – is limited.
He’s only played 15 tour-level matches on the surface in his career; Navone is 12-7 on clay this season alone (25-10 when you add Challenger Tour matches).
The pair haven’t met before but a price of 11/8 about Navone winning their first meeting looks decent.
Jan-Lennard Struff v Alexander Bublik
Siding with Bublik is always risky business – this is a man who has played shots with his racquet handle in the past and regularly serves underarm – but he looks worth a small punt at the prices on Thursday.
Bublik famously said he “hated” clay back in 2022 but he’s gradually got to grips with it more and across the last two seasons he’s now gone 10-7 on the surface. That’s hardly brilliant but not awful either.
Like Struff, he hits pretty flat groundstrokes, and it will be interesting who manages to come out on top in that power battle given the damp conditions. I expect this to become a real slugfest as both men look to hit through the court.
I think that’s a challenge Bublik will relish and if he enjoys some success there, confidence – already up after he made his first ATP semi-final on clay last week in Lyon – should rise.
Admittedly, Munich champion Struff has only lost to top-10 players during the current clay campaign but he’s not enjoyed Roland Garros a great deal over the years – he holds a losing 9-10 career record in Paris.
In short, I feel Bublik is overpriced here at 11/4.
Normally, I’d consider the handicap market with a market priced up like that but this is Bublik – he’s feast or famine and it’s not hard to see him winning a set but then losing one 6-0 to more than counter-act that and ruin a game-handicap (or total-games) bet.
Small stakes on the upset is instead the chance I’ll take.
Posted at 2125 BST on 29/05/24
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