Our tennis man Andy Schooler heads to the game handicap markets for Friday’s bets at the French Open.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Denis Shapovalov (+4.5) to beat Hubert Hurkacz on the game handicap at 8/11 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Pavel Kotov (+8.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at 11/10 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Hubert Hurkacz v Denis Shapovalov
Hurkacz got us a nice 23/10 winner yesterday with the first set of his match with Brandon Nakashima ended in a tie-break.
The Pole went on to win that one in four sets, holding his delivery throughout the contest and this is another match where serve could hold sway for long periods.
Shapovalov has played some decent stuff in Paris so far, easing past Luca van Assche in round one before seeing off Frances Tiafoe in four sets on Thursday.
He’s lost only one service game across those two matches and has enjoyed success against Hrukacz with his serve in the past, out-acing him in four of their previous five meetings.
He’s also been beaten in four of the five but they’ve all been played on a hardcourt and the most recent – at last season’s Australian Open – went the full five sets.
While my worry is that he’ll produce too many of his double faults at crucial times, I still believe Shapovalov can keep this closer than the odds suggest and is certainly capable of grabbing a set.
Hurkacz wins plenty of sets via the tie-break, something which could occur again here given how Shapovalov has held so far.
For me, the game handicap line of 4.5 looks a good way of siding with the outsider. Winning a set would put him in a good position to cover.
Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner
Sometimes in betting you need to trust your eyes above all else.
I’ve seen part of both Kotov matches so far and was impressed by his efforts against Cameron Norrie and Stan Wawrinka.
He got an awful lot of balls back in both contests and if he’s able to do that in this one, then he’s capable of keeping it competitive.
Of course, the level is considerably higher – Sinner is the world number two and one of the title favourites – but he’s yet to be tested at Roland Garros having met clay-phobe Christopher Eubanks and French veteran Richard Gasquet.
He’s not shown signs of the hip injury which has disrupted his clay season but he remains short on matches on the surface – certainly fewer are under his belt than he’d have liked – and questions still remain about whether he’s ready to challenge for the trophy.
We should learn more here.
While Sinner won their previous meeting 6-2 7-5 in Madrid a few weeks ago, the slower conditions of Paris should work in the underdog’s favour and I feel the game-handicap line of 8.5 is too high.
Sinner failed to cover this in either of his first two matches and I believe the quality of opponent rises here. Getting odds-against about Kotov looks good business.
Posted at 2130 BST on 30/05/24
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