Mirra Andreeva v Aryna Sabalenka
Long-term readers will know I love an aces bet and the time has come to delve into that market at Roland Garros.
My theory with this market is that it rarely pays enough attention to the head-to-head record between the two players in question.
Serving aces is massively about the match-up – a tall player with a long reach, say Alex Zverev, is clearly going to be harder to hit aces past than the considerably smaller Alex de Minaur. More on those two later.
Then there are other factors such as one player needing to go for the lines more given the quality of the returner.
That could well be the case with Andreeva in this contest and she looks good value to serve the most aces.
Sabalenka is the firm favourite to win the match – she’s yet to lose a set in Paris – and while Andreeva has also impressed in reaching her maiden Grand Slam quarter-final, she’s not faced anyone of this quality.
She’ll also be well aware of having struggled in her previous meetings with the world number two. Sabalenka leads 2-0 with both matches having come on the clay of Madrid. Andreeva won just four games in 2023 and five in 2024.
That suggests the Russian will indeed need to go for broke in a bid to trouble Sabalenka – that could lead to aces (and double faults) from her racquet.
Interestingly, the aces tally across those two previous matches was 5-5, Andreeva winning the most recent count 3-2.
She’s also served more so far at this tournament – 13-10.
Those numbers suggest odds of 9/4 about the underdog serving the most aces are too big.
Alex Zverev v Alex de Minaur
With Novak Djokovic having been forced to withdraw due to a knee injury, giving our headline outright tip Casper Ruud a walkover into the semi-finals, this is the only men’s singles match of the day.
It’s certainly an interesting clash of styles with the aggression of Zverev against the counter-punching, retrieving skills of De Minaur.
The Australian delivered us a tasty winner by defeating Daniil Medvedev in the last round but I think he may have met his match in Zverev.
Zverev holds a significant lead across their previous meetings, winning seven of nine. Only one of those was on clay, the German winning in straight sets at the 2022 Rome Masters.
The data helps show the gap between the pair – Zverev has held in 86% of his service games and broken in 24% of De Minaur’s for a hold/break total of 110. As you have probably already worked out, De Minaur’s is at 90. It’s a big difference.
Zverev did very well in terms of coming forward during Monday night’s cracking match with Holger Rune and I see that tactic as one which will work well against De Minaur. Rune came up with some good passing shots at times but I believe there will be less risk involved with coming to the net against the Aussie.
The big serve will help on that front too with De Minaur retreating back in the court. The numbers show how the 25-year-old has struggled against it in the past.
The concern with Zverev, at least for some, is the amount of tennis in his legs.
Monday’s match was his second five-setter in as many rounds, although I’m not convinced it will be an issue, with the German one of the fittest players on the ATP Tour.
He’ll certainly be keen to get on top early in a bid to avoid another long match and it’s notable that De Minaur lost the first set against both Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff in the previous round.
A repeat here would likely be more difficult to recover from.
I just like Zverev in this match-up and am happy to take him on the game handicap in which he gives up 4.5 games.
Posted at 2200 BST on 04/06/24
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