Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff (1400 BST)
Last week, Swiatek stood a point away from exiting the French Open but toughed it out to see off Naomi Osaka and keep her hopes alive.
If cracks in the armour were apparent that day, they are no longer visible.
The Pole has barely put a foot wrong since, winning three of six sets to love and dismantling Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova in the last round.
She looks back in the form I expected from her at the start of the fortnight and a fourth Roland Garros title beckons – especially after what unfolded on Wednesday.
The second and third favourites in the outright betting – Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina – both fell by the wayside, leaving Swiatek a red-hot jolly.
Yes, Gauff is the world number three but the fact is she’s out at 11/2 to win this match.
Not only is that due to Swiatek’s claycourt prowess but also her tremendous record in this match-up.
The world number one leads Gauff 10-1, with all four meetings on clay going her way. Notably, all 10 wins for Swiatek have come in straight sets.
Gauff’s counter-punching hasn’t been able to withstand the Swiatek barrage, with the Pole’s ability to manoeuvre her opponent around the court reaping big dividends.
Given the way she’s played since that second-round wobble, I just can’t see this one being any different to virtually all those previous encounters; the only question is how do we try to profit?
Sadly, even a straight-sets win is just 4/9 – too short for me to be putting up here. Instead, I want to ride with some data.
bet365 have set their total service breaks line at 7.5 which looks high given what’s occurred between these two in the past.
Ten of those previous 11 meetings have landed the ‘unders’ side of this bet and that looks the play here.
Swiatek did admittedly lose her serve five times in that Osaka match but across the other four rounds in Paris, she’s dropped it only twice, while the defending champ has only ever been broken three times in a match by Gauff on one occasion.
OK, the line has to take in the potential for the match to go three sets but, as already pointed out, that’s considered pretty unlikely.
I concede that the market is bookmaker specific and may not be available elsewhere but one bet which will be is my 12/1 long shot.
In her H2H with Gauff, Swiatek has won three of the last 17 sets 6-0. For the first set of a match, it’s two of the last eight.
It’s not hard to see Gauff bringing a somewhat negative mindset onto court given her awful record in the previous meetings and so 12/1 about the opening set being 6-0 to Swiatek here looks worth a small bet.
I pointed out Swiatek’s penchant for a fast start the other day – and it earned us a profit.
She started like a train in that Vondrousova match, winning the opener to love, something she also managed against Anastasia Potapova in the last 16.
Of course, a repeat against a player of Gauff’s quality is unlikely but is it unlikely as odds of 12/1 suggest? In my opinion, the answer is no, and, after a decent tournament so far in this column, we can afford to throw a dart at this.
Jasmine Paolini v Mirra Andreeva (after 1st SF)
Paolini is a player who I’ve previously highlighted for her improvement so I’m a little disappointed I’m not on her at a big price in Paris.
Maybe that’s why my instinct is saying she’s a decent bet in this second semi-final as the underdog.
She was strong against Elena Rybakina on Wednesday, although it was hard to get away from the fact that the Kazakh’s performance was error-strewn.
It was also difficult to gauge exactly how well Andreeva played in landing the upset against Aryna Sabalenka.
The second seed was clearly troubled by illness early in the match and the problem continued throughout it (as well as after it by the sounds of things).
Frankly, she did well to make it so close, Andreeva prevailing 6-4 in the decider.
While it feels wrong to take away from the 17-year-old’s achievement, you couldn’t help but feel that anything close to a fully-fit Sabalenka would have won.
Andreeva now faces the challenge of backing up a career-best win, dealing with the emotions of it, as well as the added media attention – her post-match routine would have been rather different on Wednesday, one suspects.
With both players having won 53% of points on return, how well the pair serve – and are able to fend off those returns – could well be key.
Paolini stood up well to this challenge against Rybakina with 64% of second-serve points won being excellent. She also won 62% of the points on the Kazakh’s second delivery.
Andreeva won 49% of points behind her second deal and won 52% of points on Sabalenka’s second serve.
If Paolini can enjoy similar success against, on paper, a weaker player, she could well edge this one.
Posted at 2150 BST on 05/06/24
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