Andy Schooler has won eight of his last nine bets at the French Open – here’s his take on Friday’s men’s semi-finals.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jannik Sinner and both players to win a set at 13/8 (BoyleSports)
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Alcaraz v Sinner at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt under 6.5 double faults in Casper Ruud v Alex Zverev at evens (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner (1330 BST)
It will be unusual not to see either Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of the French Open.
It’s 15 years since that was the case, 2009 being the year Roger Federer completed the career Grand Slam.
We’ve become accustomed to the pair displaying their claycourt greatness on ‘second Friday’ but, it has to be said, it has sometimes produced uncompetitive matches.
While watching a great put on a masterclass can be most entertaining – think Nadal against Andy Murray in 2014 – many fans crave two closely-matched players going head-to-head with no firm idea about who will emerge victorious.
This year both semi-finals fit the bill and we could be in for two cracking matches.
Obviously, it’s my job to come with those ‘firm ideas’, so let’s start with the first of the day’s semi-finals – the one the bookies expect the champion to emerge from.
Frankly, it’s quite easy to make a case for either man.
It’s a rivalry that is building nicely with the pair’s eight meetings split equally.
Only one of those has actually been played on clay and that came in Umag in 2022 when Sinner triumphed by the bizarre scoreline of 6-7 6-1 6-1.
Alcaraz was in something of a post-Roland Garros funk at the time – he’d produced a poor performance against Alex Zverev in the quarter-finals to crash out – and I’m not going to pay too much attention to that one contest.
Both men will crush the ball here – Sinner has one of the fastest forehands in the game with Alcaraz not far behind – but they also have that creativity and can muster some incredible angles.
I’ve written in the past about Alcaraz’s ability to turn defence into attack with seemingly minimal effort but Sinner has raised his game to similar levels.
I’d expect the Italian to be the slightly more aggressive – he’ll look to take time away from the Spaniard – but the clay will work in Alcaraz’s favour, slowing things down just that little bit. Arguably, just enough.
I think it’s notable that two of Alcaraz’s victories over Sinner have come on the sluggish courts of Indian Wells and there’s no doubt he’s the player more naturally suited to the conditions on offer in Paris. Remember it’s not too long since Sinner was describing Monte Carlo as a “practice week”, clearly feeling a little uncertain about the transition to clay.
Yes, he’s barely put a foot wrong in Paris but he’s also played no-one of real note. The only seed he’s faced so far is Grigor Dimitrov and the Bulgarian produced a pretty disappointing performance in their quarter-final. This will be a big step up.
Where Sinner can potentially win this is with his stronger serve. It’s interesting to see he’s broken 31 times to 23 across their series and while that Umag contest certainly helped build that wide margin, he still leads even taking that match out of the equation.
Yet Alcaraz’s return numbers have been the better during this tournament and I do see him enjoying success on Sinner’s second delivery.
For me, Alcaraz takes this but it can’t see it being easy so I feel the value lies with backing Alcaraz to win and both players winning a set – that’s on offer at a best price of 13/8.
But there’s also a bet in the sub-markets I like.
Seven of the pair’s eight previous meetings have seen a tie-break, while the first set has gone the distance on no fewer than five occasions.
That’s quite a number and even taking into account the slower surface, 4/1 seems a bit big about another occurring in this match.
That Umag clash failed to produce a break of serve in the opening set. Let’s hope for a repeat here.
Sky Bet’s 4/5 about a tie-break at any stage is a strong alternative.
Casper Ruud v Alex Zverev (not before 1630 BST)
I saw quite a bit of criticism of Zverev’s quarter-final with Alex de Minaur the other night, the suggestion being the quality of the match was poor.
Sure, there were many more points which ended in errors rather than winners but that’s hardly unusual in claycourt tennis.
There were some lengthy rallies with each player often happy to wait for mistakes from the other. They often arrived, eventually.
While Zverev won in straight sets (and covered the handicap for this column), there were plenty of errors from his side of the court and I feel he’ll certainly need to raise his level here.
I’d expect Ruud to be more consistent than De Minaur was and he’ll also bring a greater attacking threat with his forehand a real weapon, especially on the clay when he gets the time to unload on it.
He’ll need to fend off the big Zverev serve but that is something he dealt with superbly in last year’s semi-final when he lost only seven games to the German.
The overall head-to-head stands at 2-2 following that most-recent clash but Ruud has won the last two with Zverev’s last victory coming back in 2021, since when the Norwegian has hit another gear.
Ruud – our outright pick for the title – may have something of an advantage in the sense that he’s won his two previous Roland Garros semi-finals, whereas Zverev has lost all three of his.
With Ruud having drifted from an early favourite in the win market to an 11/10 outsider, I feel the value is probably with him, although with an outright interest already, I’m loath to get involved with a bet I’m not that convinced about.
Instead, I’m going to head to those serve markets again.
Very few double faults have occurred in previous meetings (3-1-0-1) between these two and with neither man posing the biggest threat on the return – getting balls back into play is again likely to be the primary goal – that can be the case again.
The total double-faults line is set at 6.5 which looks rather on the high side.
The tournament data doesn’t agree with my theory – the averages of both men would suggest going over – but long-term readers will know I place great weight on the head-to-head record in these serve markets.
I’ll take the unders at evens for another interest in this one, albeit to small stakes.
Posted at 2055 BST on 06/06/24
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