After a highly profitable tournament so far, Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s French Open women’s singles final between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1.5pts Iga Swiatek to win the first two games v Jasmine Paolini at 11/10 (BetVictor)
1pt Paolini to serve the most double faults at 4/5 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek v Jasmine Paolini (1400 BST)
I’m struggling to think of the last time we had a 10/1 underdog in a Grand Slam final but that says much about Iga Swiatek’s claycourt dominance in the 2020s.
Victory in this contest will bring her a fourth Roland Garros title and put her into an elite club – only Chris Evert, Steffi Graf and Justine Henin have won this event four times in the Open Era.
Swiatek would be fully deserving of having her name attached to those greats for she has consistently beaten all-comers on this surface and the Pole has now built a 34-2 win-loss record at the French Open, winning the last 20.
It’s hard to argue with the way this match has been priced up, especially when you consider Swiatek is facing a maiden Grand Slam finalist in Jasmine Paolini.
Playing in the biggest match of your life always throws up new challenges and many have suffered as a result in the past.
“It’s tough to stay relaxed at this stage,” commented the Italian after her semi-final, admitting she was “surprised” to have reached the title match.
The smile that was etched across her face as she spoke to the media after beating Mirra Andreeva on Thursday was, in its own way, delightful but I couldn’t help but get the impression that Paolini was already satisfied by her tournament, regardless of the final result.
Perhaps I’m being unkind but, sat in the same seat two hours earlier, Swiatek’s outlook could not have been more contrasting.
Never one to get too excited, the top seed looked steely-eyed and very much focused on the ultimate prize having brushed aside the challenge of Coco Gauff.
Only Naomi Osaka has in any way tested Swiatek this fortnight – remember the former world number one was a point away from victory in their second-round clash.
But Swiatek appears to have used that brush with defeat as a wake-up call. She’s since won four matches in straight sets, including against Gauff, the reigning US Open champion, and last year’s Wimbledon winner Marketa Vondrousova. Three of the sets have been won to love.
“After that (Osaka match), the weather changed also and it helps my game – I just gained confidence,” was Swiatek’s verdict when asked about what had changed.
Notably, Saturday is due to produce the hottest conditions of the tournament, albeit only around 22C, which won’t be welcomed by Paolini.
I just don’t see where Paolini will be able to hurt Swiatek, who has the power, the court coverage and the mentality to dominate once again.
That’s certainly been the case in their two previous meetings – Swiatek has won both by dropping only three games on each occasion.
Admittedly the most recent was at the 2022 US Open since when Paolini has improved markedly but it’s still more baggage for the Italian to be carrying onto Court Philippe Chatrier on Saturday afternoon.
The tournament stats also suggest an inevitable outcome.
Swiatek has won more points on first serve (73% v 61%), second serve (57% v 51%) and has been broken only eight times to Paolini’s 20.
The one area where Paolini has an edge is in return games won – 57% to 52% – but that’s offset by her service-hold stats – she’s won only 69% of service games, whereas Swiatek is up at a highly-impressive 85%.
Sadly, the markets are all over a comfortable Swiatek win.
Even a straight-sets success is just 3/10 and while under 17.5 games could well land, 10/11 seems to be giving little away given there is a very small margin for error.
Under 8.5 games in the first set makes some appeal, although the price is now into odds-on.
I do expect a fast start from Swiatek, who is notoriously good at hitting the ground running.
The undoubted nerves Paolini will bring into a match of this magnitude should also help for those prepared to back Swiatek to lead 2-0 after two games of the match.
This bet has landed in 14 of those 20 Swiatek wins in a row at this venue.
Throw in the circumstances of seasoned-champion versus first-time finalist and odds-against looks worth taking.
I also like Paolini for most double faults.
I’ve already spoken about the nerves she’ll have to deal with but a more important part of my thinking is that her second serve is going to come under major attack in this match.
She’ll therefore likely have to go for a bit more on it then she’s used to doing – be that extra power or aiming for the lines more – and that can easily lead to errors.
Paolini is also well ahead on the double-faults count across the tournament – she’s averaging 0.17 per game with Swiatek down on 0.07.
Paolini won the count 3-0 when the pair met at the US Open just under two years ago and something similar here would be no surprise.
Posted at 1625 BST on 07/06/24
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