Timeform’s Graeme North continues with his new French racing column, including a Saint-Cloud preview and 33/1 fancy for the Arc.
There is Group One action again in France this Sunday after a fortnight’s break but oddly for such an important event, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, France’s mid-season equivalent of the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, the supporting card is very low-key with only the Group Two Prix Eugene Adam the other race of real interest.
The Grand Prix has gone to a raiding party in four of the last five years but the four-pronged home challenge looks stronger on this occasion than the three that are challenging from afar. The mercurial Iresine is the highest rated of the septet, both on official ratings and Timeform ratings, and he will be ridden as usual by Marie Velon who is an overdue addition to the female riders lined up to ride at this year’s Shergar Cup card in August.
Velon and Iresine have teamed up to win numerous Group races in recent seasons and he carried my money in last year’s Japan Cup only to find the ground too fast, though finishing a respectable ninth. He’s a very versatile character for those who don’t know him, owning a very tidy turn of foot for one stayed well enough to win the 3100m Prix Royal-Oak yet is speedy enough to hold his own at shorter distances as his win last season in the Group One Prix Ganay over 2100m showed.
Oddly enough, Iresine has never run at left-handed Saint-Cloud, which is surprising given he’s now seven, the same age as France’s last winner of the Grand Prix, Way To Paris, but he’s unbeaten in seven races around Lyon Parilly which is also left handed and course configuration is not going to catch him out. He looked a bit rusty when scoring there on his only run this season, but was as good as ever last season so what’s going to beat him?
Sevenna’s Knight has been improving his profile over 3000m or thereabouts this season but got outpointed on sectionals by the runner-up Shembla last time and Zarir and Feed The Flame look bigger dangers.
Zarir came home fastest of all in La Coupe last time, a race that developed into a sprint, emerging with a 7lb better uplift than the cutely-ridden winner Calif as I interpreted it and as I’ve written before he’s developed into a very powerful-looking horse who, though clearly good enough to win something at a good level at around 2000m – after all, he was just touched off in the 2100m Prix Ganay on his previous start – he looks to be crying out for a return to at least 2400m on the back of a good gallop.
The Grand Prix might just be that race but it’s worth remembering Feed The Flame finished much faster than Zarir did in another tactical contest earlier this season, the Prix Ganay, from further back before receiving an injudicious ride in the Coronation Cup last time. Ormonde Stakes winner Point Lonsdale is one possible pace angle, having made the running in two of his last four races, while Outbox sprang a surprise when allowed his own way in front in the Jockey Club Stakes but wouldn’t be good enough on most pieces of form.
Dubai Honour would be very tough to beat if he recaptured the form he was showing in Australia last year and his recent third in the Grand Prix de Chantilly didn’t really get to the bottom of him. It’s a fascinating race, very open, and no surprise they are betting 11/4 the field.
Bright Picture looks the one to beat in the Eugene Adam over 2000m. He’s won three of his four races, suffering his only defeat at the hands of Calandagan in the Prix Noailles last time out when he made good ground from the rear to look dangerous only to find the winner far too strong in the final 200m.
Given what Calandagan did subsequently at Ascot, I doubt few French middle-distance three-year-olds could have lived with him that day and Bright Picture’s rivals looks a slightly inferior bunch. Hamavi is a colt I’ve developed an admiration for but Maxime Guyon who has ridden him in all his races stays loyal to Bright Picture.
Wootton Verni did well to come form last to first in the Group Three Prix Greffulhe last time but that looks a very muddling piece of form and perhaps a bigger danger is the improving filly Rose Jaipur who took a listed race at ParisLongchamp last time. William Haggas has supplemented Grey Charger who suffered his only defeat so far at the hands of German 2000 Guineas winner Devil’s Point but faces a much sterner test here.
No-one could have failed to notice the large numbers of French-trained runners at Royal Ascot last week – indeed, the 22 they ran is easily the largest batch this century and four more than the biggest in recent years which was 18 in 2016.
Bigger numbers don’t necessarily translate to a greater number of winners, of course, and the French have fared better on five occasions than the sole success they went home with this year having won three races in 2017 (from 17 runners) and two in 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2016. Six top-three finishes is their biggest haul since 2015 and in Calandagan they had a horse who, along with Queen Anne winner Charyn, posted the joint highest timefigure of the week (122) as he pulled six lengths clear of Space Legend to record the biggest winning margin in the race since subsequent King George winner Nathaniel went clear by five in 2011.
The other top-three finishes came courtesy of Zarakem (set plenty to do and ran a career best) and Horizon Dore (a stiff ten furlongs probably just stretches him) in the Princes Of Wales’s Stakes, a race in which they ran four, Ramatuelle (slightly disappointing given the more modest pace should have suited her better than the flat-out gallop in the 1000 Guineas) in the Coronation, Metropolitan (excellent run with no excuses) in the St James’s Palace and Goliath (yet another career best, his sixth in a row) in the Hardwicke.
French Derby second First Look was beaten twice as far when fourth in the Hampton Court as he had been when second at Chantilly, pretty much confirmation that while the winner looked good, that Classic form is ordinary, while Mondo Man ran well when fourth to Calandagan but continues to have his chances compromised by being ridden too far off the pace.
There were plenty of disappointments too, however, notably in the Queen Anne where neither Big Rock (ground possibly too fast) nor Facteur Cheval turned up, while Blue Rose Cen’s trainer move looks an increasingly bad call after her disappointing show in the Prince Of Wales’s. French 1000 Guineas winner Rouhiya checked out very tamely in the Coronation (no reason found for her poor run) while Darlinghurst looked to find the ground too fast in the St James’s Palace.
With there being no column last week I’ve held over the review of French Oaks day at Chantilly until now. The first race of any consequence on a good card was the Group Three Prix du Bois, the first pattern race in the French calendar for juveniles.
There was plenty of support for the Andre Fabre-trained Daylight but after putting it up to the eventual winner Arabie, trained by Karl Burke who went on to have a great week at Ascot with his youngsters, he couldn’t maintain his effort and not only dropped off Arabie but let Secret Wood in for second. The sectionals indicate that Daylight really ought to have finished second but the form, for all Arabie had had subsequent Albany runner-up Simmering back in third when winning his novice at York, doesn’t look much better than useful at this stage.
The next Group race on the card, the Prix du Lys, went to an improving sort in Delius. A Grand Prix du Paris and Arc entry, he’d taken a while to pick up when winning his previous start but was much more professional on this occasion despite the steady pace, emerging a much better horse on sectional upgrades than the runner-up Saganti, who looks more of a stayer if not over the third Internaute.
A much stronger pace and slower ground would have seen sixth-placed Coetzee (by Frankel, also entered in the Grand Prix de Paris) going very close, he got caught on the rail and ended up enduring a nightmare passage under Tom Marquand.
A steady pace was also a feature of the Prix de Diane, run in a rainstorm, and though neither Candala nor Gala Real had the clearest of runs there were no hard-luck stories on the Coetzee scale. What looked a humdinger beforehand tuned out exactly that with the lead changing three times in the last 300m with the only one of the first four who didn’t lead during that time, Survie, running the fastest last 200m and still closing at the line.
Indeed, sectional upgrades suggest she was the moral winner, albeit narrowly but no mean feat given the actual winner Sparkling Plenty had run the fastest final furlong when sixth in the French 1000 Guineas. While sectionals are good at informing which horses are better than the result (and by how much) what they can’t always pinpoint is how horses have fared against their pre-race profile and with that in mind I’d argue the horse who emerges with the most credit, and is the best horse in the race probably by a clear margin, is not third-placed Tamfana who had every chance stepping up in trip but fourth-placed AVENTURE.
I gave her a glowing write up in my second North On Sunday column after her win in the 2400m Prix de Royaumont on French Derby day where she ran late sectionals very similar to the 123-rated and proven Group One performer Junko despite a much stronger earlier gallop. I put forward a theory then that she’s Arc class and nothing she did here dropping back in trip just two weeks later in a very different type of race that favoured milers altered that opinion; she’s a best-priced 33/1 for the Arc and on the back of this I’ve helped myself to a bit more of that.
The other two races of note on the card, the Prix Bertrand du Breuil and the Prix Pawneese, went to Marhaba Ya Sanafi and Quisisana, respectively. The former wasn’t as inconvenienced by the slow gallop in his race as I’d expected with form rival Fast Raaj running well below form, though runner-up Andromede who had only one behind him 400m out emerged the clear winner on sectional upgrades after flying home with easily the fastest last 200m of the day. Unfortunately, the tracking data failed in the Prix Pawneese, but the race was strongly run and Quisisana, another filly I’ve written about before, finally showed her full ability ridden far closer to the pace than usual which might have coincided with being ridden by champion jockey Maxime Guyon for the first time.
Flat racing in France has embraced many of the newer racing technologies with timing data now extended and available from many of the smaller tracks (or at least those that get shown on Sky Sports Racing).
One frustrating hurdle still to be addressed, however, is exact race distances. Rail movements can be found online on France Galop’s twitter feed but that doesn’t make calculating exact race distances any easier. A rudimentary sectional breakdown of the Group Three Prix de la Porte Maillot at ParisLongchamp on June 20th would suggest the race wasn’t obviously steadily run with the finishing speeds coming in at around 102.5% from 600m out but visual evidence suggested otherwise with the field ambling along taking a pull in the early stages and it later turned out the rail was out by a staggering 25m putting a whole different complexion on things.
King Gold might have retained his crown but the fast-finishing Exxtra who’d won the Group Two Prix du Palais-Royal on his previous outing, is still the best 1400m performer in France for me, and by several lengths, too.
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