Fresh headache for Coalition as European poll successes could lead to six by-elections

If Taoiseach Simon Harris is genuine in his insistence that the general election will not be until 2025, he will be forced to hold multiple by-elections before Christmas.

Traditionally government parties struggle in such contests – and in this scenario those elected would only get a matter of weeks in the Dáil before facing the electorate again.

European counts were continuing late last night and look certain to result in several TDs moving on to Brussels.

Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen is seen as a safe European seat in Midlands-North West, as well as Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion and Michael McNamara in Ireland South.

Meanwhile Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has a chance in Midlands-North West and Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin is in the hunt in Dublin.

Furthermore, the chances of Finance Minister Michael McGrath being selected as Ireland’s next EU Commissioner over the summer are seen as increasingly likely in government circles.

His brother, Seamus, who topped the poll in Cork with 36pc of the total vote, has said he was open to running in the next general election and is being viewed as the minister’s likely replacement in Cork South Central.

After the local and European election results, will we see a General Election in October 2024?

Last night Fianna Fáil’s poll topper Barry Andrews remained on track to be the first MEP elected in Dublin with more than 60,000 votes, but he may not reach the quota of over 75,000 until later this afternoon.

However Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty was neck-and-neck with Mr Andrews. Counts were coming thick and fast and they are set to continue into today and likely tomorrow.

A battle royale looms for the third and fourth seats in Dublin, with four candidates in the 30,000 vote mark.

Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan is being viewed as being the most secure of the four and she will also benefit from most of running mate Daithí Doolan’s votes, which now stand at 11,000.

Independent Ireland’s Niall Boylan, Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin and Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe are expected to scrap it out for the last seat.

Also not to be underestimated are sitting MEP Clare Daly and People Before Profit’s Bríd Smith. The two candidates are likely to transfer into one another and one of them still may get a seat.

In Ireland South, poll topper Seán Kelly of Fine Gael was elected on the first count just after 9.30pm last night, with 122,777 votes. The former GAA president has won his fourth term in the European Parliament, having been first elected in 2009.

Outgoing Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher will be returned to the European Parliament with a first preference vote of 91,074.

He is expected to be elected after several counts later today.

Clare-based Independent Michael McNamara is poised to clinch a Euro berth after a strong first count of 56,339 votes.

The final two seats are expected to be decided in a tight battle between five candidates.

Sitting TD Kathleen Funchion is among those in the mix to be elected in Ireland South.

The final two seats are now set to be decided on transfers in a tight battle ­between Independent Mick Wallace, Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, Fine Gael’s John Mullins, Sinn Féin’s Ms Funchion and the Green Party’s outgoing MEP Grace O’Sullivan.

Just 20,000 votes separate the five challengers.

The fact Fianna Fáil’s Ms Ní Mhurchú is in a very strong position to become an MEP is a major coup for Micheál Martin’s party. If it transpires, Fianna Fáil will be the biggest party in local government and have the most MEPs.

Fine Gael’s decision to run a Cork-based candidate alongside Kerry’s Sean Kelly rather than somebody from Leinster will be seen as a big mistake.

In the Midlands North West constituency, Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan and Barry Cowen are expected to lead the way, with Fine Gael’s Maria Walsh, Nina Carberry and Fianna Fáil’s Lisa Chambers also in the mix.

Early indications are suggesting Chris MacManus and Michelle Gildernew are not doing too well, although they are likely to transfer to one another.

I now have growing confidence that Fianna Fáil will remain as the largest party of local government when all the votes are counted

Elsewhere, former secretary general independent candidate John Moran topped the poll in the race to become Limerick’s first directly elected mayor with 18,308 first preference votes in the first count.

Mr Moran received a total of 18,308 first preference votes in the landmark election, and was followed in second place by another independent candidate Helen O’Donnell who received 12,903 votes.

As some of the final council seats continued to be decided last night, Fianna Fáil has declared itself as on track to be the largest party in local government.

Director of local elections for FF and minister of state Jack Chambers said it would remain the largest party in local government, having reviewed the latest numbers.

It comes as Fine Gael said earlier that it had the largest number of first preference votes in the local elections.

“As director of elections I have been reviewing the counts and seat numbers all day and I now have growing confidence that Fianna Fáil will remain as the largest party of local government when all the votes are counted and the full democratic process has concluded,” said Mr Chambers.

“We are in a really strong position as the final seats are declared.”

The Taoiseach could be accused of many things – doing favours for me is not one of those

Separately Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has challenged the Taoiseach to “bring it on” and call an early general election in Ireland.

She struck a defiant note following her party’s disappointing showing in the country’s local election and rejected any suggestion Simon Harris would be doing her a favour if he stuck to his original plan to go to the polls in early 2025.

Mr Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin have both moved to dampen speculation of an earlier-than-expected general election after their respective parties performed better than many pollsters had predicted in last Friday’s local and European elections.

While it could still take days to finish counting every vote across the country, the political implications of the results are already reverberating.

Sinn Féin has already announced an internal review after its poor performance while Ms McDonald has apologised for the results.

Some opinion polls last year saw Sinn Féin riding high on 30pc-plus support among the electorate, but the party attracted only 12pc of first preference votes in Friday’s local government elections.

While that was still up on its showing in the last local council poll in 2019, the result is well short of what the party had hoped for.

Asked if Ms Harris would be doing her a favour if he decided against an early election, Ms McDonald replied: “The Taoiseach could be accused of many things – doing favours for me is not one of those.

“I want us to contest the general election and I want us to have that at the earliest possible date because I firmly believe that we need a change of government.

“When the Taoiseach calls the election is anybody’s guess. He seems to be indicating that it might go to next spring. I rather suspect that it will happen in the autumn, that’s my speculation.”

She added: “We’ll be ready whenever it happens. Bring it on.”