Graeme North tips for the Grand Prix de Paris

It might be ‘Super Saturday’ domestically – if that’s your generous take on a breathless day that crams in cards from Newmarket, Ascot, York and Chester – but it’s also a better-than-usual Samedi too across in France where ParisLongchamp hosts three Group races headed by the Group One Grand Prix de Paris. With 14.5mm of reported rain in the last seven days, most of it in overnight Thursday into Friday, the ground looks set to ride good with the rail set to its inside position.

Hurricane Lane, Onesto and Feed The Flame are the last three winners of the showpiece but this year’s renewal is lacking a bit of quality with none of the eight runners boasting a Timeform rating exceeding 114 though official ratings paint a slightly brighter picture with the highest up at 116.

That honour belongs to Sosie who is trained by Andre Fabre and last time finished third in the French Derby just over two lengths behind the impressive winner Look De Vega and over a length and a half ahead of the re-opposing Mondo Man who has since finished fourth to Calandagan in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Longines tracking data available on the France Galop website for the French Derby showed that Sosie, who had the benefit of the inside draw, ran a slower last 600m than the supplemented Mondo Man so whether he can confirm that form, not least with William Buick being replaced on Mondo Man by Mikael Barzalona, remain to be seen.

All the same, you get the feeling that unless the tactics change on Mondo Man the result will still be the same, a fast finish from well back into a place, and given the French Derby looked something of an ordinary affair behind the winner, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the prize went elsewhere.

So, where exactly? A decent starting point is Illinois who is representing the Aidan O’Brien stable who won this race between 2018 and 2020 with Kew Gardens, Japan and Mogul. A comparison with Mogul isn’t exactly fair given he won the race in Covid-affected 2020 when the race was run in September, but both Kew Gardens and Japan took in the race after winning at Royal Ascot with Kew Gardens winning the same race as Illinois won, the Queen’s Vase.

Much like Illinois, who helped cut out the running at an unsustainable pace in the Lingfield Derby Trial before giving best to Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly, Kew Gardens was asked to do too much too soon in his Ascot ‘prep’ before winning the Queen’s Vase emphatically. The drop back in trip didn’t trouble that horse – indeed, he improved for it judged by Timeform ratings – and the same might easily turn out to be true about Illinois who is partnered by Christophe Soumillon (record when called upon by Aidan O’Brien is just so-so) for the first time.

The Aga Khan who has such a good year is represented by the Prix du Lys third Saganti and the Derby du Midi winner Sibayan, but the former is held readily by reopposing Delius while the latter finished further behind the Aga’s own Calandagan in the Prix Noailles than Mondo Man did at Ascot.

Delius is a very progressive sort in the typical Jean-Claude Rouget mould, winning the Prix de Lys comfortably, and the strong market support that saw him sent off favourite that day upped in grade is expected again. He looked much more professional then than he had done in his previous two wins and looked to have plenty left in the locker passing the line.

All the same, he needs to improve to see off another supplementary entry TAMFANA who tops Timeform’s adjusted ratings by 4lb and is ridden by Oisin Murphy who has been in great form at the Newmarket July Festival and could have had a great book of rides had he stayed at home. A very fast-finishing fourth in the 1000 Guineas before coming a close third in a French Oaks that developed into a test of speed, Tamfana hasn’t yet run at a mile and a half but promises to stay and might well have too much speed for her rivals should the race not turn into an out-and-out stamina test.

The supporting Group Two Prix de Malleret for three-year-old fillies over the same trip as the Grand Prix has attracted just six runners with the standout name being Survie who ran the fastest final 200m when second in the French Oaks last time after none too clear a run, no mean feat in a steadily-run race given the winner Sparkling Plenty had done the same in the French 1000 and Third-placed Tamfana also achieved the feat at Newmarket. By Churchill out of a Le Havre mare, the extra 150m here shouldn’t be an issue.

Candala was well behind her in the French Oaks last time, but something tells me that wasn’t her running and she comes right into the equation on her reappearance Prix de la Grotte win. Musidora sixth Sinology, Prix de Royaumont third Mosaique and Class 2 Saint-Cloud winner Tzarovskha all have plenty to find but one who doesn’t quite so much yet is still hard to weigh up is Italian Oaks winner Tomiko.

On the face of it that run gives her plenty to find but the Italian Oaks was a steadily-run affair and she was settled right out the back by Silvestre de Sousa to such an extent that she briefly looked like losing touch leaving the back straight. That she managed to get up at all is testament to her ability and with de Sousa unavailable, connections have turned to Christophe Soumillon.

The other Group race, the Prix Maurice de Nieuil over 3200m, looks a motley affair. Leading 2023 stayer Double Major has struggled badly on his last two starts and whether he’s quite as good as his heavy-ground Prix Royal-Oak win suggests is a moot point.

Sober, who was third in this race last year, is another who has been well below his best this year while Ottery hasn’t come up to scratch in her last two races either. 2022 German Derby winner Alessio has been running consistently, but this may be an opportunity for SHEMBALA who has been placed both starts in Group company this year and finished ahead of Double Major and Sober last time.

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