Graeme North is back with a look ahead to a cracking card at Deauville on Sunday and his analysis of the recent big-race action in France.
Romantic to turn on the style
In contrast to the ordinary domestic action on offer this Sunday at Ayr and Chelmsford, France’s strong set of Sunday cards continues this week with Deauville playing host to the Prix Jean Prat, a Group One contest for colts and fillies over the straight 1400m in which 12 have been declared on ground that was officially called good on Friday lunchtime and to which 5mm of watering was set to be applied overnight into Saturday.
The early betting has Kikkuli and Romantic Style heading the market at 4/1 and that’s an indication of just how tight a race it is. The one horse who looks well out of her depth is Zandy but she’s clearly in there as a pacemaker for the fast improving Jersey runner-up Kikkuli, though given the dismal form she’s shown this season (got dropped 3 kilograms by the French official handicapper after her last run) whether she’ll be able to perform that task adequately for one who clearly wants a good test at a stiff seven furlongs let alone this sharper 1400m must be open to serious question.
Another for whom the trip might be an absolute minimum on the day is a colt who shares the same official rating as Kikkuli, Devil’s Point, currently a 5/1-shot, who was well held in the Prix Djebel over course and distance on his reappearance but has won twice since including in the German 2000 Guineas last time.
There is plenty of other Classic form represented, notably from the French 1000 Guineas in which Kathmandu, Vespertilio and Romantic Style finished second, third and fifth respectively.
Nell Gwyn third Kathmandu had the run of the race that day and though she might well be a bit better suited by this shorter trip, she might struggle to confirm form with either Vespertilio, who was drawn wide and might have found the race coming too soon next time out when bombing in the Irish 1000, or Romantic Style who beat Ramatuelle and Tamfana earlier this year in style in the Prix Imprudence over course and distance but didn’t quite get home from the second-widest stall at ParisLongchamp.
Another with good form with Tamfana and can’t be ruled out in a filly-heavy renewal is Monteille whose official rating looks too low and she won’t lack for speed having won the Prix Texanita over 1200m last time.
Sagir has also won over a sprint trip this season, in his case the 1100m Prix Sigy, but he finished two lengths behind Havana Cigar in the Prix Paul de Moussac last time with no obvious excuse even before the trouble Havana Cigar encountered that day is factored in.
That rival might not have won since July last year, but he’s barely stopped improving and this straight 1400m might be a better fit for the son of Havana Grey (particularly with stable-companion Puchkine in there as a potential pacemaker) who is partnered by Christophe Soumillon for the first time, not that it’s the advantage these days that it once was.
The field is completed by two who have questions to answer, Iberian and Beauvatier. The former was tailed off in the 2000 Guineas when last seen and hadn’t run much better when sixth in the Dewhurst before that, unlike Beauvatier, who ended his juvenile campaign with a very good third behind Rosallion in the Jean-Luc Lagardere.
He’d take some beating here on that form, and there’s no horse I’d like to see win this more given the admiration I had for him last season, but he looked to finish sore to me on ground faster than it was officially given in the French 2000 last time and whether he’s over that remains to be seen. The drop to seven won’t worry him if he turns up in top form, but if pressed for a selection I’d plump for Romantic Style who showed an impressive burst of mid-race speed in the Imprudence and will relish the return to 1400m.
Shartash one to watch
Eleven go to post an hour later in the Prix de Ris-Orangis, a Group Three contest for three-year-olds and above over 1200m. Perhaps the most fascinating runner is the one at the top of the racecard, Tribalist, a horse who has compiled a very good winning record and has only ever been beaten by bona fide Group One horses when he hasn’t won himself but he hasn’t run over a trip as short as 1400m since September 2022, and has never run over 1200m. He has to concede two kilograms and upwards all round too.
The horse below him on the racecard, Breizh Sky, is another who hasn’t run at the trip since his debut which opens the door for a proper sprinter and any of Spycatcher, Shartash and Shouldvebeenaring all fit the bill.
The former was the form pick when beating the reopposing Batwan (good keeping-on second in the 1000m Prix Hampton last time) by three lengths in this race last year but he’s not really kicked on form an encouraging reappearance this season. That remark also applies to several of his other rivals (Saint Lawrence, Tudo Bem, Game Run, Knock On) but not Shartash who is two for three this year and wasn’t beaten far in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee at Royal Ascot last time.
He finished one place ahead of Shouldvebeenaring that day and marginally makes most appeal for all the three-year-old filly Electric Storm is on the upgrade yet represents form that hasn’t worked out particularly well.
Rest of the card
Three listed races complete the better half of the card. The Prix Roland de Chambure looks a poor renewal with a couple of ordinary British raiders chancing their arm but they’ll have to improve some and then some more to get the better of Madero who had the measure of the reopposing Griselda easing down on his debut and will be suited by the extra 200m
See You Around ran finishing fractions very similar to Vespertilio, the winner Rouhiya and subsequent French Oaks heroine Sparkling Plenty in the French 1000 and ought to have too many guns for her rivals in the Prix Amandine, while the Pix Goldikova looks an unfathomable contest with very little winning form on show. Perhaps Left Sea, who has run solely in Group races since her last winning effort in listed company, can make the drop in grade pay.
One of the more reliable data subsets that until recently could be relied upon to function efficiently in France, the McLloyd tracking data that records individual sectional times and ground lost or covered in French Flat races, has been misfiring this season in the top events even more than the French national football team have been in front of goal in the Euros.
Haggas has the Honour
Last Sunday’s Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud was the latest instance where the timing data was absent. In some respects that’s never quite the issue at Saint-Cloud than it is at other courses, given extraordinarily large rail movements throughout the season make establishing timing standards, whether those are overall or sectional, very hard to be confident about anyway with exact race distances sometimes no more than an educated guess, but all the same it would have been nice to have known exactly how much fourth-placed Iresine and fifth-placed Zarir were disadvantaged by being held up off what clearly wasn’t a strong gallop.
I suspect the answer is a bit but not much. Iresine had made the most of a straightforward winning opportunity at Lyon-Parilly on his comeback, a track where he’s unbeaten, and perhaps the fact he wasn’t able to run down the leaders in the short straight was an indication of why he’d never run at Saint-Cloud before.
Zarir, too, was another who took much longer to pick up than his fast-finishing effort at ParisLongchamp the time before had suggested he might, and given both stay much further – Iresine is a Group One winner at 3100m while Zarir is undefeated in two runs beyond 2400m – then it’s perhaps it a little surprising they weren’t ridden with a bit more enterprise.
The horse that did make the running, Outbox, dropped away quickly entering the straight leaving Dubai Honour, who’d raced in third place on the rail before being driven up to dispute the lead in the penultimate 200m to stay on strongest and beat Feed The Flame (ridden closer to the pace than usual and best effort this year) by a length and three quarters with Point Lonsdale, who led 500m out and battled on stoutly, close up in third.
A return to form then from Dubai Honour, whose exploits in Australia in early months of 2023 was the best form on offer if he could return to those heights, and in doing so he paid a healthy compliment too to a horse I gave a write-up too last week with the Arc in mind, Aventure, who’d run the last 200m at Chantilly on French Derby day at the end of a much more strongly-run race just 0.13 seconds slower than he had in a sprint finish to his. Feed The Flame probably still has the Arc on his radar but none of Dubai Honour, Iresine and Zarir will have as all are geldings.
In the other Group race on the card, the Group Two Prix Eugene Adam, the only horse to have beaten impressive King Edward VII winner Calandagan this year, Bright Picture, though she was subsequently beaten by him in the Group Three Prix Noailles, a race that has thrown up five next-time-out winners, made short work of six rivals.
In another steadily-run race, Bright Picture (led 300m out, readily) was better placed than the eventual second Wootton Verni who more than confirmed the improvement he’d shown last time when overcoming a pace bias in the Prix Greffulhe while third-placed Wahdan kept on better than fourth-home Hamavi who may have been in there as a pacemaker for the winner but still showed a bit of improvement nonetheless.
The previous day there has been three listed contests at Chantilly though whether we say anything really significant with the future in mind I’m not sure. British raider Bright Thunder was much better placed than eventual runner-up and 2023 Marcel Boussac runner-up Rose Bloom when winning the Prix de Bagatelle, and the result may very well have been different on another day (no tracking data again to be certain).
In the Prix Hampton, the improving Mgheera, second behind Ponntos in the Prix du Gros Chene on her previous outing, again had the better of things tactically than the runner-up, the long-striding grey Batwan, but a couple finished a bit too close for comfort for the form to be counted on heavily.
Shadizi, who’d run out a five-and-a-half length winner of a handicap off an equivalent BHA rating of 94 when last seen in April, took the other listed contest, the Prix de Saint-Patrick, coming with a strong run to lead in the closing stages. French 2000 sixth Supercooled took the runner-up spot, but the third-placed No Lunch (won a maiden at Saint-Cloud earlier in June looked by three lengths) showed more than enough to think he’s got a similar event in him given the ground he made from the back. Saidi El Fal was keen as usual in front and was only headed inside the last 200m for a game effort.
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