Ed Watson is back on home turf for round three of the Sky Bet Sunday Series. The Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst nailed winners Pepsi Cat (100/30) and Ice Max (15/8) at the first two fixtures and has three fancies on Hamilton’s card.
THE BEST BET – WARDA JAMILA (5.40)
Hampshire to Hamilton is not a journey Andrew Balding’s horseboxes make very often. Only twice in the post-Covid era, in fact. Yet the Kingsclere cracker has clearly made a point of targeting the richest raceday in Hamilton’s history, dispatching four on the long haul north to South Lanarkshire.
It may well be Balding and jockey David Probert are saving the best to last, as their main hope for returning with a decent chunk of the £225,000 prize-money pool looks to rest with WARDA JAMILA in the 1m1f fillies-only handicap.
This Calyx half-sister to the stable’s top stayer Coltrane ran well when conceding a penalty to some promising three-year-colts on her seasonal return in a Newbury novice won by Vanish (ran in Saturday’s Epsom Derby). She then posted a 10lb higher Timeform figure when making a successful first foray into handicap company off a mark of 80 at Ascot three weeks ago, when she took care of a bunch of older fillies and mares with minimal fuss.
The handicapper has meted out an 8lb rise in an attempt to catch up. She’s also up slightly in grade and down a tad in trip. On the flip side, though, she’s an uncomplicated type, lightly raced with just four starts so far, and strikes me as being progressive enough to remain a step ahead of the handicapper on a track which should also play to her strengths.
The Inside Track: “I’ve not ridden her in a race since her debut, but she’s done well this year and seems to have taken a good step forward in her work at home. I’d like to think she’s a 90-plus filly in the making. She must have a great chance.” – David Probert, jockey
THE NEXT BEST – AMERICAN AFFAIR (5.10)
Jordan Electrics still holds the 6f track record at Hamilton from his days with Ewan Whillans. Now with Jim Goldie, he cashed in on a handy mark at Ayr two runs ago, then followed up cosily under a penalty when dropping back to 5f at Carlisle. Amie Waugh’s 5lb claim sees this four-time course scorer shoot for the hat-trick off effectively a 2lb lower mark.
He’s respected given his record here, yet may still find himself playing for minor honours behind his four-year younger stable companion AMERICAN AFFAIR, who returned to action with a striking victory at Musselburgh’s Sunday Series fixture six weeks ago.
My selection won readily there, showing bags of tow through the first two-thirds of the race that Paul Mulrennan could afford to take a pull a furlong out and still win by two-and-a-half lengths eased down.
He’s up 10b for that. And regular rider Mulrennan also misses out this weekend through suspension. However, Goldie appears to have left nothing to chance, moving quickly at the start of the week to secure new Amo Racing No1 David Egan for the ride. With the guts of £40,000 up for grabs to the winner, that eye-catching booking struck me as a statement of intent for a late-developing type who remains seriously unexposed as a 5f sprinter.
The Inside Track: “Have I kept American Affair fresh for this race? That’s a possibility! At Musselburgh I thought he was still to come to himself coat-wise, but he’s there now. Ten pounds looks quite harsh, but then you’d expect me to say that.” – Jim Goldie, trainer
THE TREBLE BET – GEREMIA (4.40)
At first glance, the handicapper seems to have a good handle on what figure GEREMIA can run to. In his last 29 starts – for Marco Botti, Goldie and now Iain Jardine – his mark hasn’t wavered above 86 or below 80. That’s a remarkably consistent sequence of efforts for a horse so versatile in trip he ran creditably over 1m1f in the Cambridgeshire and then over double that distance in the Cesarewitch only a fortnight later.
Yet I’m not entirely sure 86 is the ceiling of Geremia’s ability. While he’s been assigned the Timeform squiggle on account of his habitual slow starts, the six-year-old looked like he’d found a new mojo when winning over 1m4f here on just his second start for Jardine 16 days ago.
It wasn’t just that he ran out a decisive victor, either. More the way he did it, coming from last place in a steadily-run race to win going away from Capital Theory. For my money, the official margin of victory of a length-and-three-quarters underplayed his superiority.
If in the same mood here (and his profile for his previous yards suggests that is an ‘if’), a 4lb rise to a mark of 84 shouldn’t prevent him from going close to a third win in just five starts at Hamilton. He will appreciate the extra furlong of this test and, crucially, should get an end-to-end gallop to chase courtesy of the progressive Fairbanks and fellow forward-goer Hope You Can Run.
The Inside Track: “Geremia takes a wee while to warm up, but the more you can sit on him and let him find his rhythm, the more you can feel his confidence grow. I’ll ride him the same way as I did when we won over a mile-and-a-half last time. The extra distance will suit and the harder they go, the better. I won’t be worried about anyone else. I’ll take my time, try to get him nice and settled, then ride him to come past horses, which he loves doing.” – Andrew Mullen, jockey
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