How Australia can still qualify for T20 World Cup semi-finals despite crushing loss to India

After suffering consecutive defeats to Afghanistan and India during the Super Eights, Australia’s T20 World Cup dream is hanging by a thread — but the 2021 champions could still qualify for the semi-finals.

On Tuesday morning AEST, Rohit Sharma led India towards a clinical 24-run victory over Australia in Gros Islet, booking their spot in the T20 World Cup knockouts.

The Indian captain blasted 92 from 41 deliveries, including eight sixes, before Australia stumbled during the run chase, crawling towards 7-181 despite a dazzling half-century from opener Travis Head.

India joins England and South Africa in the semi-finals, while Tuesday’s match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh in St Vincent will determine which other nation features in the knockouts.

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Australia and Afghanistan both currently have two points in the Super Eight standings, while Bangladesh has zero.

If Rashid Khan’s team defeats the Tigers at Arnos Vale Stadium, Afghanistan will qualify for the semi-finals, the first time they’ve achieved the feat in a major ICC event.

However, if Afghanistan loses to Bangladesh, three nations will be tied on two points and the semi-finalists will be determined by net run rate.

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It’s time to whip out the calculators.

Courtesy of their superior net run rate, Australia will qualify for the knockouts if Bangladesh, whose net run rate is currently languishing at -2.489, defeats Afghanistan by a narrow margin.

“Come on, Bangladesh,” Australian captain Mitchell Marsh laughed during Tuesday’s post-match press conference.

However, the Tigers could storm into the semi-finals themselves if they bat first against Afghanistan and win by more than 62 runs.

The situation becomes more complicated if Bangladesh is chasing, because the required margin of victory would depend on Afghanistan’s first-innings score. For example, the Tigers would need to reach a 200-run target in 13.3 overs, but for a 120-run target would have 12.1 overs at their disposal.

WHAT HAPPENS IF IT RAINS?

Australia will also be keeping an eye on the radar — if the Kingstown match is washed out or abandoned due to weather, Afghanistan qualifies for the semi-finals.

Afghanistan completed its first innings and struggled on its way to 5-115.

Nonetheless, the heavens opened at the end of the innings with heavy rain now threatening to eliminate Australia.

Current T20 World Cup Group 1 standings

1. India — 6 points (+2.017 NRR)

2. Australia — 2 points (-0.331 NRR)

3. Afghanistan — 2 points (-0.650 NRR)

4. Bangladesh — 0 points (-2.489 NRR)

Remaining Fixtures

Tuesday, 25 June at 10.30am — Afghanistan vs Bangladesh, Arnos Vale, St Vincent