How many wins for South Carolina football in 2024? This ESPN predictor isn’t optimistic

It’s a spring tradition in Columbia. Each year, those who follow the South Carolina football program look at upcoming game schedule and remark in different tones a similar sentiment: “That’s gotta be one of the toughest schedules out there.”

And even by the standards of this rite of spring, the Gamecocks’ 2024 slate is in many ways an absolute doozy. Florida, Tennessee and Georgia aren’t there, but Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are.

Shane Beamer’s fourth team at South Carolina is looking to at least get back to a bowl following a 5-7 campaign in 2023. To do that, his squad will have to beat at least one team that projects as a double-digit favorite, as the bulk of the 2024 schedule looks to be even tougher than usual.

Based on projected ratings from ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, the Gamecocks will be at least a 9.5-point underdog in eight of 12 games next season. The SP+ ratings are a predictive measure and can mimic betting lines and factor in returning production, recent success and recruiting quality, among other factors. Connelly’s system has South Carolina ranked 43rd nationally.

This means a projection for four wins for the Gamecocks this season.

One silver lining: Every game the Gamecocks are favored to win has a projected spread of 12 points or more.

vs. Old Dominion, Aug. 31

Projected line: South Carolina by 20

The Monarchs are coming off a perfectly fine 6-7 season in the Sun Belt, heading into Ricky Rahne’s fourth season. That said, they’re rated outside the top 110 teams in the country, lost some key defensive transfers and shouldn’t push the Gamecocks all that much.

at Kentucky, Sept. 7

Projected line: Kentucky by 9.5

Swing games have often come early for the Gamecocks in Beamer’s tenure, and this is no different. The trip to Kroger Field features the smallest projected line among games where USC is an underdog, making it line up as the eighth-easiest game of the year. That’s visiting a team rated right at the edge of the SP+ top 25.

vs. LSU, Sept. 14

Projected line: LSU by 17.5

The Tigers lost some big pieces from last season, but they’re always talented and have a pretty strong quarterback stepping in. LSU projects as a top 10 team and will be a tall task any way you cut it.

vs. Akron, Sept. 21

Projected line: South Carolina by 30

The Zips are perennially not a very good team. They’ve got a good coach in Joe Moorhead, but that didn’t prevent them from struggling last year, and portal losses haven’t helped matters in northeastern Ohio.

vs. Ole Miss, Oct. 5

Projected line: Ole Miss by 19

This one is in Williams-Brice, but the Rebels look formidable coming off an 11-2 season. They added a slew of strong transfers, including former Gamecock receiver Juice Wells, so this is another tough one.

at Alabama, Oct. 12

Projected line: Bama by 26

Sure, the SP+ numbers may still be counting some of Nick Saban’s success in the mix, but the Tide is still plenty talented and Kalen DeBoer can coach. Plus, a trip to Tuscaloosa is never for the faint of heart.

at Oklahoma, Oct. 19

Projected line: Oklahoma by 16.5

It’s a brand-new SEC opponent and a blue blood coming off a pretty good season. The Sooners will likely be going through some transition pains, but they get this one at home and are probably a top-20 quality team.

vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 2

Projected line: A&M by 12

Getting the Aggies at home is a help to Beamer’s squad, as is the program being in transition. That said, they’re always loading up on talent and have some nice pieces. This is one of the more winnable games on the SEC slate, and it’s still a tough one.

at Vanderbilt, Nov. 9

Projected line: South Carolina by 12.5

The Commodores might have a little spark to them, but they’re installing a new offense and this series has generally been pretty one-sided. To get where they want, the Gamecocks will need to win this one, especially at this late juncture.

vs. Missouri, Nov. 16

Projected line: Mizzou by 15

The Tigers’ SP+ metrics were pushed up by a flat-out excellent offense. Much of the group is back, while the defense wasn’t bad. It remains to be seen if Mizzou can stay at top 10-15 quality, but it’s suddenly a tough one in a series where the games were at least a bit more winnable for a while (though South Carolina hasn’t been able to take advantage).

vs. Wofford, Nov. 23

Projected line: N/A

At the moment, SP+ doesn’t list FCS ratings. That said, South Carolina will almost assuredly be in position to win this one, especially as the Terriers have fallen off terribly in recent years.

at Clemson, Nov. 30

Projected line: Clemson by 17

The Tigers scuffled last season and are very resistant to adding transfers. That said, they’re still heavy on blue-chip talent and have a pretty good offensive mind trying to jump-start an inconsistent attack. This being in Death Valley is tough, and they still project in the top 15.

Season outlook

The best way for the Gamecocks to overcome this will be playing well above their projected quality level. And even then, eight top-25 quality teams, seven in the top 15, make a hellacious road for most any squad.