How Pakistan can qualify for T20 World Cup Super Eight after loss against India, USA

Pakistan have at least made the semifinals in six of the eight T20 World Cup editions, which includes the championship title in 2009. It was followed by two consecutive semifinal exits in 2010 and 2012 and then again in 2021 before they made the finals for the third time in history in 2022 (the other being 2007). However, the Babar Azam-led side has their campaign hanging in the balance in the 2024 edition of the ICC tournament after consecutive losses at the start of the group stage.

In their opener on Friday in Dallas, Pakistan were stunned by World Cup debutants and co-hosts USA via Super Over. And despite the humiliating show, the side did bounce back strongly in New York as the bowlers folded India for just 119 runs, their lowest-ever T20 World Cup total, but the batter choked under pressure in the run chase. Pakistan eventually succumbed by six runs.

With India having won against Ireland in their opening game and the USA beating Canada, the two stand top of the points table, leaving Pakistan’s hopes of making the Super Eight in tatters. They are yet to open their account in the tournament, and stand third in the points table behind Canada, who beat Ireland last week.

Given the equation in Group A of the T20 World Cup, Pakistan can, at the most, amass four points from their remaining games, but it surely won’t be enough to secure their berth in Super Eight, leaving their fate firmly out of their hands.

How can Pakistan qualify for Super Eight stage of 2024 T20 World Cup?

Pakistan have two more matches left in the group stage – against Canada on Tuesday in New York and against Ireland on June 16 in Lauderhill. They have to win both games and expect one of India or USA to lose both their remaining matches. India and USA face each other in the next match, and as long as the match does not get washed out, Pakistan will rely on their neighbours to get them through. If that result goes Pakistan’s way, their next hope will be Ireland beating the USA. Paul Stirling’s men have not had a good start to the tournament yet, having lost to Canada and India, but they surely won’t head into the match as underdogs against the 12th-ranked USA.

Not to forget, Pakistan will still have to tackle the net run rate factor. Given that their match against the USA ended in a Super Over, NRR was not counted, their narrow loss to India by just six runs leave them with a net run rate of -0.150. This implies that if the aforementioned factors fall in place, Pakistan are the favourites to prevail in the NRR battle.