Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty is back with his guide to the grounds for the T20 World Cup, providing in-depth analysis, statistics and vital betting pointers.
The first port of call for bettors trying to predict the T20 World Cup will naturally be the teams and personnel. However on a game by game, innings by innings basis, I would argue there is no greater angle than knowing the characteristics of each ground. These can differ widely. It is essential information when betting on innings runs or total sixes, for weighing up how realistic a chase is, or the importance of the toss.
Nine different grounds will be used in this World Cup but there isn’t enough relevant or recent firm to analyse three of them. The Nassau Stadium in New York was custom built for this tournament. Form at the ground at Antigua, and St Vincent & the Grenadines is very old or in womens’ cricket, where totals are lower. For this trio, I recommend employing a wary, watching brief early on whilst trying to gauge conditions.
Before getting to the other six, we must discuss the trend towards ever more aggressive batting and higher runs totals. This has been evident in every franchise tournament over the last couple of years, and reached new extremes at the just completed IPL. My broad thesis is that lines have risen 20-30 runs over the past few years.
Whereas a par score was once around 160-165, now it seems around 185-190. Low scores around 130 have become much rarer, with 160 feeling equivalent. In the IPL, the availability of a batting substitute drove it higher, allowing teams to remain aggressive for longer, before exposing the tail. That won’t be the case here.
KENSINGTON OVAL (BARBADOS)
First a ground which has definitely become more battling-friendly. In the past two editions of the Caribbean Premier League, Barbados has been one of the best to back high first innings runs totals. 75% of them were 170 or higher and while 200 was only reached twice (17%), both were beyond 220. 20 or more sixes landed in a third of matches.
I expect higher scores in a World Cup compared to CPL. The very best in the world, as opposed to merely some of them, are here and many matches will be one-sided. For example, Australia will play Oman at this ground, and England play Scotland. Two of, if not the, most aggressive batting sides versus associate sides. Enormous totals are in play, perhaps even beyond 250. And in the close match-up between Australia and England, 200 looks perfectly realistic.
Two-year form also implies a big advantage here to the team batting first, winning 75% of matches.
DARREN SAMMY STADIUM (GROS ISLET)
Somewhat similar comments apply to this St Lucia ground. Defending teams have a 60/40 advantage and it looks to be one of the higher scoring venues.
Returns have been less consistent with 170 reached in only 40% of first innings dating back through 2021. However the first innings totals in the two 2023 matches were 201 and 187, and the sixes tallies were 16 and 18. Australia play Scotland here and, as the most powerful batting unit in the competition, a very high total is on the cards if they bat first.
CENTRAL BROWARD REGIONAL PARK STADIUM (LAUDERHILL)
We could also see record-breaking scores in Florida. India play Canada at Lauderhill, while Sri Lanka play Nepal.
Our study sample is small, amounting to only four games, but that evidence points towards runs. First innings totals ranged from 165-191, with the two lowest scores not proving enough. At least 15 sixes were hit in three of the games.
GRAND PRAIRIE STADIUM (DALLAS)
The US ground where we have a more solid sample is, however, tricky to read. Texas hosted 12 matches at last year’s Major League Cricket, producing a mixed bag of results.
Early on, it looked full of runs, with first innings totals of 181 and 215 posted in the first two games. However over the course of 12 matches, half came in below 160 and a third produced ten or fewer sixes. Those numbers are very much against the recent trend.
One game where going unders on sixes looks a solid play is Sri Lanka vs Bangladesh on 7th June. Neither have powerful batting line-ups and neither is likely to dominate.
PROVIDENCE (GUYANA)
Unders on sixes very much looks the way to go at Providence too. All ten CPL matches here last term failed to produce 15 sixes. This despite half of those first innings passing 175. Over the past two years, more than a third were below 160, which is again very low by recent standards.
If they qualify, India will play their semi-final here. In the group stage, four of the five matches are one-sided, so unders lines will differ widely depending who bats first. The one tight match here is between New Zealand and Afghanistan. That already looked an unders game due to the lack of power in both batting line-ups and strong bowlers.
BRIAN LARA STADIUM (TAROUBA)
This has consistently been a low-scoring ground in the CPL. Over half of first innings during the past two seasons came in under 160. 15 sixes were hit in only two out of 11 matches.
Aforementioned low-scorers Afghanistan and New Zealand will play multiple matches here, although three are one-sided affairs. That will nevertheless be reflected in run lines, so stick with the unders plan.
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