ICC T20 World Cup outright preview and best bets

Cricket is changing and no format highlights that more than T20, with the most recent edition of the Indian Premier League producing an endless stream of huge, record-breaking totals and an unprecedented number of boundaries. Even world-class bowlers have been reduced to bowling machines in the last six weeks. The bat is now boss and unlimited power hitting is no longer a luxury, but an absolute necessity.

There are many in the 20-team T20 World Cup who will believe they have enough of the above in their ranks to go all the way, but the original Master Blaster was an Antiguan by the name of Viv Richards and his team, the WEST INDIES, appear very well-equipped to follow in his footsteps and power their way to more ICC tournament glory.

Oh how Richards, Man of the Match in the 50-over World Cup final of 1979, would have loved this format and franchises worldwide would have loved him, too. A match made in heaven, of that there is no doubt. Since its inception, T20 cricket has certainly suited the West Indies and while the exploits of the Test and 50-over sides have gone downhill since the glory years of the 1980s, the West Indies and their players have been inspired by the shortest format, winning this tournament twice, in 2012 and 2016, and continually producing global T20 superstars.

The likes of Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo would be the first names that come to mind, and more recently Sunil Narine who really should be in the current squad. Nevertheless, despite Narine’s absence, the West Indies have assembled a strong unit for this event, one which appears to tick an awful lot of boxes when it comes to what is likely to be required to win a T20 World Cup in 2024.

West Indies power hard to ignore

In Nicholas Pooran and Andre Russell, it’s hard to think of many more destructive T20 hitters for those middle and late overs, while Shimron Hetmyer has developed into an expert finisher himself. It’s easy to cherry pick statistics, but Pooran is hot from scoring 499 runs at an average of 62.37 at the IPL, where Russell starred with bat and ball for Kolkata Knight Riders as they claimed their third title. When you add captain Rovman Powell to the mix, another battled hardened from the IPL, plus Shai Hope and Brandon King, the batting looks very good, and very powerful.

In terms of this World Cup, I do think strike-rates will be of the utmost importance. It sounds like an obvious thing to say, but some teams, both at domestic and international level, are only now fully accepting of this. With plenty of all-rounders and a deep batting line-up, I think this is where the West Indies could get their heads above the pack.

Their line-up is full of destructive hitters, with opener Johnson Charles another name to note having blasted 69 from only 26 balls in another warm-up victory over South Africa in the last few days. Even Romario Shephard, an unlikely starter, was used as a finisher for Mumbai Indians at the IPL this season where he blasted 39 not out from 10 balls on one occasion. Everywhere you look, this team has power, suggesting they will post plenty of big scores on grounds that aren’t the biggest you will find in world cricket.

The bowling might not take the eye quite as much, but I reckon it stacks up pretty well. Most bases are covered: there is variety, skill and plenty of experience. Alzarri Joseph is genuinely quick and capable of breaking games open with destructive spells, while Shamar Joseph makes the squad as the potential x-factor bowler having burst onto the scene with his now famous match-winning spell against Australia in a Test match at the Gabba back in January. In Obed McCoy and Andre Russell, the West Indies can call upon a couple of shrewd operators who bowl very well at the death.

Lean, mean Russell holds the key

The current form and fitness of Russell is the arguably the biggest positive when assessing the chances of this West Indies team. Russell is a T20 superstar who has made good money all around the world, but he hasn’t always been the easiest to weigh up.

A big, strong man, Russell has suffered with injuries in the past and I’ve occasionally wondered about him and his aptitude for the fight when things get tough. That hasn’t been the case more recently, with a leaner, meaner Russell stating some time ago that this World Cup was a significant target for him, and he was outstanding at the recent IPL, not just with the bat, but also with the ball as he got through plenty of overs and claimed 19 wickets in KKR’s title-winning campaign.

He was excellent in the field, too, throwing himself about with little care for risk of injuring himself. I sense a more mature, determined, fitter Russell as he enters the latter stages of his career and that spells danger for the rest of the competition. When at his best, Russell has few equals in this format.

As for spin, Gudakesh Motie has made a terrific start to his international career across formats, chalking up two five-wickets hauls in his five Tests to date. His partnership with Akeal Hosein could be key and the West Indies do have Roston Chase in their squad if they think match-ups don’t suit bowling two left-arm finger spinners in tandem. At the latest Pakistan Super League, Akeal claimed 15 wickets in 10 matches, with an economy of only 7.70. He is a superb operator who bowls particularly well in the powerplay.

Even in the field, this appears a much more mobile West Indian outfit than we have seen in recent years. Russell is a good example of that and in Powell and Hetmyer, they have two gun outfielders who will ensure the West Indies can rely on terrific boundary riders.

We shouldn’t forget home advantage, either. It hasn’t been that strong a pointer to the winner of this tournament more recently, but in the 50-over World Cup, three of the last four winners have been the host nation. I think it will remain a big factor, particularly in the latter stages – should West Indies get that far – when the event switches back from the United States to the Caribbean.

Above all, I strongly believe this tournament will be won by the boldest and bravest batting team, the one able to hit the most fours and sixes from 1-11. Of course, there are strong batting teams throughout, but regardless of conditions, this West Indies outfit is one that won’t be concerned with dot balls or rotating the strike, more hitting boundaries.

Ultimately, whatever types of pitches are served up in the United States, or in the Caribbean on grounds the West Indian players know so well, this format is leaning ever more towards a battle of power and muscle – and the hosts look to have all the answers in that respect. Of the Test playing nations, it’s somewhat surprising, then, that the West Indies are relative outsiders, and they make plenty of appeal at odds of 10/1 in places and 8/1 generally.

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Kohli still King following IPL run-fest

At the top of the market, it’s no surprise to find 2007 champions India, who also reached the final in 2016, the last four in 2022, and of course, the final of the 50-over World Cup at home last year. There is little doubting their pedigree, the depth of talent in Indian cricket, nor the fact their squad boasts some of the best T20 performers in the world game – chiefly Virat Kohli, Jasprit Bumrah and Suryakumar Yadav.

Kohli is fresh from finishing the IPL as the tournament’s leading runscorer, with 741 runs at 61.75, while a fit-again Bumrah was outstanding for an otherwise poor Mumbai franchise. As ever, there was a scramble for the final few spots in the squad, though I do think not finding room for brilliant finisher Rinku Singh will prove to be a mistake.

Rohit Sharma captains very well in all formats, though it’s fair to say his record in 50-over cricket is better than in 20 overs, and Kohli’s form in the IPL came batting at the top of the order. One of he or Yadav will have to bat at number four in the coming weeks, with Yashasvi Jaiswal expected to open with Rohit. I’m not sure that’s ideal, though Yadav is certainly good enough to excel at it.

A bigger concern would be the bowling – Bumrah apart. Spin, as ever, is well covered, but Royal Challengers Bengaluru dropped Mohammed Siraj midway through the IPL because of poor form and Arshdeep Singh no longer has the luxury of being the unknown quantity.

Sure, there is plenty of quality, but for my money India are a better 50-over team than they are a 20-over one, and yet they still couldn’t win a World Cup on home soil only last autumn. India had everything in their favour in that tournament and once again, came up short. Knockout cricket, and a lack of success in those matches, has come to define this white-ball team and I wouldn’t want to back them to win the tournament as favourites.

Australia are generally a point or so bigger at around 4/1 and I’d make them a better bet from the market principals.

This group has enjoyed remarkable success in the last few years. Few gave them a chance in the UAE when they were crowned T20 world champions in 2021 and they fought back from adversity on a number of occasions before winning the 50-over equivalent last year. Add those to victory over India in the World Test Championship final, also last year, along with retaining the Ashes a couple of months later, and we are looking at a mightily impressive résumé for this team.

Much of the success has centred around the excellent bowling attack. In Test cricket, Nathan Lyon has done a terrific job as the frontline spinner, Adam Zampa in the shorter formats. But Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood have somehow been fit and strong enough to stay together across formats and this world-class trio have enjoyed an enormous amount of success together.

Cummins and Starc both featured in the IPL final on Sunday – the latter claiming Man of the Match honours – so their heavy workloads could count against them, but this is very much the norm nowadays and as we have seen so often with Australian cricket teams, they generally find a way. Cummins doesn’t captain in this format, with Mitch Marsh instead doing the steering, so that ought to ease the burden on the former a little.

For once, I’d have more reservations about the batting. David Warner is fortunate to have been selected in my view, with Jake Fraser-McGurk desperately unlucky to have missed out, while a dreadful IPL season for Glenn Maxwell means Australia might have a tricky selection dilemma to address there. One suspects he’ll be given the chance to work his way back to his best and with plenty of power elsewhere in the line-up, namely Marsh and Marcus Stoinis, this still looks a very good side. They certainly deserve to be as short as they are in the betting.

Dangerous England hard to discount

Around the same price, England are interesting, for all they are a little harder to make firm conclusions about. That might sound ridiculous, but the 2022 champions are a much different side to the one Eoin Morgan led to greatness a few years ago. Some of the pillars of that team remain – Jos Buttler, Jonny Bairstow and Jofra Archer back from injury – but plenty has changed.

Ben Stokes was the hero of that successful 2022 campaign in Australia but has opted to prioritise Test cricket this summer and is currently honing his red-ball skills in the County Championship, while Alex Hales has finally gone and Chris Woakes and Dawid Malan have also been moved on.

But change isn’t necessarily a bad thing and in Phil Salt, Will Jacks and Harry Brook, England have three of the brightest young batting talents in the world. In Brook’s case, that extends across all three formats. Salt was outstanding when England toured the Caribbean late last year and again in the IPL, where Jacks made a hundred which apparently left RCB teammate Kohli in awe.

Those three players have everything needed to succeed at the highest level in this format. They have just proved that in the best franchise competition in the world and the way they play the game and the skills they possess, they are very much the template for the modern day, white-ball batsman. They have seen what it takes to survive and thrive in competitions such as the IPL, Pakistan Super League and SA20 and that should set them up well for a tournament like this.

When you add Buttler to the mix, who I remain convinced is a very fine captain, this batting line-up in particular has lots going for it. On the flip side, there are potential weak spots, with all-rounders Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali not really convincing with the bat for some time now.

The bowling has been patched up a little. I like the move to bring back Chris Jordan who is very experienced and bowls well at the death, to add to his outstanding fielding and improved batting. Adil Rashid remains world class, but much will depend on how quickly Archer can hit the ground running after such a lengthy injury layoff.

Archer is a once in a generation cricketer, potentially one of the most exciting English cricket has seen in many a year, and is the type of superstar needed to win ICC events. Don’t forget, he was the man who delivered that nerveless Super Over in the 2019 World Cup final having only been selected for the squad at the last minute. England knew it then and they know it now: Archer has star quality that very few possess. If he stays fit and fires, anything is possible.

Nevertheless, that is a big if and just as with the young batting group mentioned earlier, you are guessing a little bit with this England team. They are all about potential, but do they have the same depth and overall quality in their squad as Australia, who are similarly priced? I’m not sure they do, for all they are clearly hard to discount.

Pakistan and New Zealand up against it

Further down the list, neither New Zealand nor Pakistan strike me as having enough power or adventure to lift the trophy were this to turn out to be a high-scoring World Cup like we saw in the 50-over equivalent in India, or indeed the recent IPL.

Pakistan were left behind in that World Cup and while the likes of Babar Azam continue to put up big numbers, his strike-rate and overall approach to batting is still some way behind where this format has gone. Pakistan do bat deep, but not well enough for my money, while a pace attack that looked world-beating just a few years ago has lost a little bit of its shine more recently.

I can’t see Pakistan going all the way and I suspect New Zealand would need the pitches to be tough and the scores generally lower than the new normal for them to win this event. In Kane Williamson and Devon Conway, they have wonderful touch players in their ranks, but in terms of big-boy power, they have few options. Glenn Phillips is an outstanding cricketer, but he has spent the last few months warming the bench at the IPL.

Ish Sodhi and Tim Southee represent what appears to be an ageing bowling attack that might well have had their chance to be world champions. Trent Boult remains top class, though perhaps not at the death, and though New Zealand generally find a way to defy the odds and the doubters, I suspect they will be outmuscled in the coming weeks.

South Africa are better stocked in that respect. They’ve been building a strong white-ball team for a couple of years now and were close to beating eventual champions Australia in the semi-finals in India last year. They are certainly made for this test, with Heinrich Klaasen, Quinton de Kock, David Miller and Aiden Markram promising a destructive batting line-up.

I like Markram as captain, replacing Temba Bavuma, but it wasn’t that long ago they lost to the Netherlands in the 2022 renewal having started that tournament playing a level of cricket that apparently set them apart from the rest. For a short time, it was the same in India until they again came unstuck in a knockout match. Though fit again, Anrich Nortje struggled badly at the recent IPL and as good as he is, I don’t think this is Kagiso Rabada’s best format.

When you consider all those factors, and the fact they are now shorter at 7/1 than they were in 2022, or in India, it’s hard to conclude they are knocking value. I wouldn’t be at all surprised were they to start well and trade shorter for a time, but I think their current price represents their chance and nothing more. They certainly don’t scream value.

For my money, the West Indies at 8-10/1 do, if things click and this dynamic, powerful outfit can hit the ground running in front of home support that will try their best to carry them all the way. Those home fans might not have Richards to cheer on anymore, or Brian Lara, but in this format at least, they have some of the very best.

Russell and co could be very hard to stop in a tournament which promises to favour bravery and brawn. The West Indies have that in abundance and can once again rule the world in a format made for them.

Preview published at 2125 BST on 27/05/24

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