Jazz Face No-Win Situation with Lauri Markkanen amid Contract, NBA Trade Rumors

Despite missing the playoffs in each of the last two seasons and winning a combined 68 games during that span, the Utah Jazz have been unexpectedly quiet during the 2024 NBA offseason.

Aside from using the 10th overall pick on Colorado’s Cody Williams, Utah has done virtually nothing to improve its roster this offseason. It hasn’t been the plan that CEO Danny Ainge promised during the spring.

“We’re ready to go big game hunting,” Ainge said in April, per Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune.

It feels very much like the Jazz are still in the early stages of a rebuild that began with the 2022 trades of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. At this point, Utah may be better off continuing to tear down its roster. It hasn’t been good enough to sniff the postseason but not quite bad enough to make a real run at a franchise-altering lottery pick.

Yet, Ainge has been hesitant to cash in his trade chips too.
According to SNY’s Ian Begley, Utah recently turned down an offer of two first-round picks for 2022 first-round pick Walker Kessler. Star forward Lauri Markkanen—arguably the biggest trade chip left in the league—is still on the team as well.

Unfortunately, the time to maximize a return on Markkanen has likely passed. According to The Athletic’s Anthony Slater, Utah had its shot at flipping Markkanen for a bevy of draft picks but hesitated:

“The Sacramento Kings
put a substantial picks-based package on the table for Markkanen last
week, but they had a time crunch, so it was an exploding offer, league
sources said.”

With the Jazz failing to flip the switch on a deal quickly enough, Sacramento pivoted to DeMar DeRozan. That left the Golden State Warriors as Markkanen’s top suitor, but the Warriors reportedly won’t push for an immediate trade.

“The Warriors are not operating with that type of urgency,” Slater wrote. “They’re willing to wait for an answer on Markkanen, believing a level of clarity will arrive on Aug. 6, at the latest, considering the contractual dynamics.”

Golden State would be wise to remain patient with any potential Markkanen deal because Utah is likely to lose leverage by the day. As Slater pointed out, the 27-year-old will be eligible to renegotiate his contract on August 6, which becomes a very tangible deadline for the Jazz.

Markkanen is set to earn $18 million next season, the final year of his contract. Under new extension guidelines, Markkanen cannot earn more than 140 percent of that salary—or $25.2 million—on the first year of his extension if he were to sign before renegotiating. That’s far less than he’d earn on the 2025 market or by renegotiating and then extending.

The problem for Utah is that the 2024-25 trade deadline is scheduled for February 6. This means that, due to league rules, any sizeable extension after August 6 would remove Markkanen as a trade asset until next offseason.

This puts most of the leverage in Markkanen’s hands, which creates a two-fold problem for Utah. He could either push for a contract with which the Jazz are uncomfortable or refuse to sign on the day he’s eligible. The latter choice could leave Utah scrambling to make a trade far less lucrative than the one it might have made at the onset of the offseason.

Now, keeping Markkanen would be far from a complete disaster. He’s flashed potential as a pro, was an All-Star two seasons ago and was also the league’s Most Improved Player that season.

At 27, Markkanen is still young enough to be a long-term building block for the franchise too. Keeping him at the right price would make plenty of sense.

At the same time, though, Markkanen has yet to establish himself as a true centerpiece player, and he was limited to 55 games by hamstring and shoulder injuries last season. Utah will likely have to overpay on an extension, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be more valuable long-term than multiple incoming first-round selections and a season of true rebuilding.

Keeping Markkanen likely leaves the Jazz right where they are, an NBA non-factor without a shot at a franchise-altering prospect like presumptive 2025 first overall pick Cooper Flagg. If could also leave Utah using a bigger chunk of their cap space than anticipated—a potential problem if Ainge ever decides to follow through with his plan of “big game hunting.”

Simply put, Utah’s best chance of truly winning Markkanen’s situation has come and gone.