NBA Finals 2024 preview: Celtics-Mavericks X-factors, matchups and predictions

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) shoots against Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Monday, Jan. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

It’s almost time to crown an NBA champion.

Will it the Celtics win it all? Or will Luka Doncic and the Mavericks upset yet another march to Banner 18?

Here’s everything you need to know about the upcoming NBA Finals, from matchups to X-factors and series predictions:

Best matchup

Kyrie Irving vs. Derrick White/Jrue Holiday

Luka Doncic is going to get his, even against a defense as talented as Boston’s. He had 33- and 37-point triple-doubles in the teams’ two regular-season matchups. The key for the Celtics is ensuring Doncic and Irving don’t both erupt the way they did in the Western Conference finals, when they shredded Minnesota’s top-ranked D in a five-game gentlemen’s sweep. The Mavs are 5-0 this postseason when both of their stars top 30 points. Fortunately for Boston, Irving now will be going against the NBA’s best defensive backcourt in White and Holiday, who both made second-team All-Defense this season. Irving totaled 42 points, was 4-for-14 from three and got to the free-throw line just twice against the Celtics during the regular season, and Boston won both meetings. — Zack Cox

Luka Doncic vs. Joe Mazzulla

The Celtics’ plan to defend arguably the best player in the world should start with Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum guarding him 1-on-1. But it won’t stop there. Doncic will hunt and force mismatches, meaning Boston must be prepared with various counters to protect itself and keep one of the NBA’s half-court chess masters off-balance. That puts a lot of pressure on Joe Mazzulla’s game plan, which should involve attacking Doncic on defense.

Even if Doncic has been stout enough for most of the playoffs, look for Tatum and Brown to repeatedly test him 1-on-1, or for Boston to run his man through several screens. The idea being if Doncic tires on defense, he’ll be less capable offensively. But if the Celtics’ isolations or Doncic-focused actions prove inefficient over an extended stretch, they cannot sacrifice their own offense for the sake of hoping they’ve curbed Dallas’. It’s a delicate balance with little room for error; a high-stakes, tight-rope walk on basketball’s biggest stage. — Andrew Callahan

Biggest question

How effective will Kristaps Porzingis be?

By the time Game 1 tips off, Porzingis will have been out 38 straight days with the calf strain he suffered in the first round versus Miami. He was a full participant in practice last week, according to Mazzulla, but the Celtics have otherwise been tight-lipped about their star center.

If he’s healthy, the 7-foot-2 sharpshooter will present significant matchup problems for his former team. Porzingis can post up Dallas’ smaller, springy centers — Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II — or shoot over them. He’s a one-man antidote to switching defenses, a tactic most Celtics opponents resort to in crunch time. But even if Porzingis is cleared, he could be on a minutes restriction, and the Mavericks are guaranteed to test him defensively. Will he be ready? — Callahan

Can the Celtics pass their toughest playoff test yet?

It’s not Boston’s fault that a tsunami of injuries to Eastern Conference stars gifted them a rather leisurely path to the NBA Finals. The Celtics proved during their 64-win regular season that they were by far the league’s best team, and they likely wouldn’t have had much trouble with Miami, Cleveland or Indiana even if Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton all had been available. All of that said, the Mavs are both the best and the healthiest team they’ve faced in these playoffs, boasting two superstars and a cast of impact role players. Don’t let the No. 5 seed fool you. Dallas won 16 of its final 20 games and then slugged its way to the Finals in the loaded West, knocking off the fourth, first and third seeds all in six games or fewer. — Cox

Callahan: The Celtics-Mavericks question that should decide the NBA Finals

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X-factor

Porzingis’ health

The Celtics may not need their unicorn big man to win this series. They’re 30-5 without him this season — including 9-1 in the playoffs since he went down with a calf strain on April 29 — and didn’t have him when they beat the Mavs in Dallas back in January. But Boston is a far more dangerous and complete team with Porzingis, who gives them a rare combination of rim protection and 3-point shooting prowess. Porzingis seems to be trending toward a Game 1 return, which would push 38-year-old replacement Al Horford back into a preferred sixth-man role. — Cox

The corners

It’s all about the corner 3. The Celtics made 43.6% of their corner 3s during the regular season, best in the NBA, and Dallas allows a ton of those shots on defense. In contrast, the Mavericks — who took the second-most 3-pointers in the league behind only Boston — generate a ton of corner 3s offensively, thanks to Doncic’s drive-and-kick games. That will test a Celtics defense that’s allowed opponents to take just 6.9% of their shots from the corner and make a measly 25% of them, both leading marks in these playoffs, per Cleaning The Glass. — Callahan

The Celtics will win if …

Boston has two of the three best players in this series

Jaylen Brown is the odds-on favorite here, assuming Doncic and Tatum shine as expected. But if Porzingis shows no rust and dominates his matchup — the same Boston picked at in the teams’ latest regular-season meeting — the Celtics will roll all the same. Dallas can only win if Doncic and Irving are among the top-3 players in this series, creating shots for themselves and unlocking open looks for the Mavericks’ role players.

But if Brown or Porzingis elevate above Irving, Dallas doesn’t have the supporting cast to match the Celtics’ depth around their stars. — Callahan

The Celtics are so deep, and can threaten opponents in so many ways, that there isn’t one single path to victory for them in these Finals. But it’s on Tatum and Brown — who both are seeking to vanquish demons from prior postseason failures — to lead the way. If they play to their potential, meaning both outplay everybody but Doncic, Boston will hoist Banner 18. — Cox

The Celtics will lose if …

Tatum and Brown settle with their shot selection