NBA free agency: Isaiah Hartenstein tops a not-so-strong group of centers

NBA free-agency breakdown: Overall Top 25 | Point Guards | Shooting Guards |  Small Forwards | Power Forwards

We’ve saved the worst for last. As the final positional stop on our free-agency tour, the center position unquestionably offers the least. Only two starting-caliber players show up on the radar, and after that, we quickly move to the horde of minimum-contract third centers.

I’ve analyzed every plausible free-agent center here. Note the word plausible — I excluded Richaun Holmes, who isn’t declining his $12.9 million player option after barely playing last year, and the Warriors aren’t going to waive Kevon Looney’s team-friendly partially guaranteed deal. Ditto for Jaylin Williams in Oklahoma City.

Here’s how my BORD$ formula rates the value of all the options at center this offseason.

Tier I: Max and near-max guys

None.

Tier II: More than midlevel exception, less than max

1. Isaiah Hartenstein, New York: $28,256,814

The Knicks are being punished for signing too good a contract. Hartenstein is on the second year of a deal that paid him just $9.2 million last season and isn’t extension-eligible. As an early Bird free agent, the Knicks can’t sign him for more than $16.2 million for next season, but his market is considerably more than that. If another team swoops in with a $100 million bag, what is New York to do?

One possibility is a one-plus-one deal that signs Hartenstein for $16.2 million for 2024-25 and has a player option for the next season; if he were to opt out next summer, he would have full Bird rights with New York and be eligible for a contract of any size up to the max and for up to five years. I’m not saying there would be a wink-wink arrangement that New York would take care of him if he agreed to the one-year deal now, as that would be illegal and therefore we shouldn’t consider the possibility. But maybe things could just happen to turn out that way.

2. Nic Claxton, Brooklyn: $22,514,770

The level of agreement on Claxton was strange — nearly everyone seem to expect him to return to Brooklyn on a deal worth roughly $90 million over four years. Apparently BORD$ was in on it, too, as this dollar figure is right in that range. Shams Charania reported Wednesday that Claxton and Brooklyn are nearing a deal for just over that amount. The Nets weren’t set up to replace him, cap-wise, so they had a lot of incentive to get him re-signed with Bird rights.

Tier III: Midlevel exception guys

None

Tier IV: More than minimum

3. Paul Reed, Philadelphia (non-guaranteed): $9,922,173

Reed has a non-guaranteed deal for $8.1 million for 2024-25, which, by the logic of BORD$, the Sixers should pick up. The problem is that the Sixers’ projected $61 million in cap room is dependent in part on wiping away the $8.1 million owed to Reed.

Philly could always re-sign him later if he clears waivers (not a sure thing; teams could claim him with a trade exception or their midlevel exception, and his extra non-guaranteed year in 2025-26 makes his a favorable contract to snag), but the Sixers have an advantage in that his contract has no guarantee date. Philly can wait until it has an alternate use for the cap room before pulling the trigger or hang on to Reed if it doesn’t need the room.

4. Christian Wood, L.A. Lakers (player option): $9,166,256

BORD$ continues to have a Christian Wood attraction that has not spread to the rest of the league. Last season it valued him even higher than this, and he ended up getting a one-plus-one minimum from the Lakers and falling out of their rotation as the year went on.

While I’d argue Wood’s offensive tools are still undervalued, coaches have been consistently leery of relying on him because of his soft defense. The takeaway, if you haven’t caught on, is that he should probably pick up his $3 million player option rather than chance the market this summer.

5. Jonas Valančiunas, New Orleans: $7,074,134

Valančiunas’ days as a starter might be numbered after he became a “first-and-third” guy in New Orleans last season, beginning games but rarely finishing them. While he can mash on the block with anyone, opponents continue to test his mobility on the defensive end, and at 32, it’s getting harder for him to keep up. The Pelicans have Bird rights on Valančiunas, but he also might be a target for teams with the room exception or the nontaxpayer MLE on a two-year deal.

6. Moritz Wagner, Orlando (team option): $6,413,988

Wagner has a team option for $8 million that the Magic could choose to decline if they need the cap space, allowing them to circle back and re-sign Wagner with the room exception. However, things don’t seem headed in that direction.

The other possibility, of course, is Orlando declining the option and re-signing Wagner to a longer deal out of its cap room. Finally, the Magic could just lock in the $8 million and write an extension off that. Either way, the possibility of Orlando extending two Wagners in one summer is titillating stuff for cap nerds.

7. Jalen Smith, Indiana (player option): $6,069,481

Smith fell out of favor with the Pacers this past season, as Isaiah Jackson moved ahead of him in the backup five queue and Obi Toppin stole any minutes he would have received at the four. As a result, opting out of his $5.4 million for the coming season to find a better situation feels like a plausible option.

Smith is a bit caught between positions because of his 215-pound frame, but a 20.7 PER on 68.2 percent true shooting is going to get people’s attention, and for a skinny guy, he’s very effective on the glass (18.2 percent rebound rate).

8. Andre Drummond, Chicago: $5,434,721

Drummond quietly had a very productive year for the Bulls; the 30-year-old had a monstrous 29.3 percent rebound rate and continues to flash the fastest hands you’ll see on a 280-pounder, picking 73 steals in 79 games.

Drummond played on a minimum deal a year ago, but the Bulls have Early Bird rights and could bring him back at a higher number this time around. Managing the luxury tax is the other issue for Chicago, but Drummond’s number should be manageable enough that it isn’t a huge concern.

9. Xavier Tillman Sr., Boston: $5,092,010

Tillman is a limited offensive player, but his ability to defend should make him an attractive backup center candidate. Boston has full Bird rights on him, but Tillman becomes an expensive luxury at prices much above the minimum given the Celtics’ current tax situation.

Tier V: Minimums

10. Luke Kornet, Boston

Boston has full Bird rights on Kornet if it needs to give him a slight raise on the $2.4 million he made a year ago as a sometimes-rotation center. He may have fans in other front offices willing to pay more, however, and as with Tillman above, the Celtics’ luxury tax situation likely limits how high they can go.

11. Mason Plumlee, LA Clippers

I’m slightly surprised to see BORD$ didn’t value him more. Given the Clippers’ limited ability to sign players from other teams while navigating the tax apron, LA seems incentivized to bring Plumlee back as long as the dollars are reasonable.

12. Goga Bitadze, Orlando

A stealth target for teams looking for a shot blocker, Bitadze turns 25 this summer and had a productive stint starting 33 games for the Magic in 2023-24. However, Orlando’s other depth at the position pushes him out of the full-strength rotation, and Bitadze is likely to find more opportunity elsewhere.

13. Sandro Mamukelashvili, San Antonio (restricted)

This guy is … not bad? “Mamu” needs to shoot better to max out his perimeter skill set, but he can handle the ball and pass, and in three pro seasons, he has a career PER of 14.5. I’m not expecting a crazy bidding war, but the Spurs can match any offers on him.

14. Dario Šarić, Golden State

Saric offers zero rim protection but was a nice scheme fit as a ballhandling, passing center who shot 37.6 percent from 3. The Warriors have no Bird rights but might be able to bring him back on another minimum deal.

15. Drew Eubanks, Phoenix (player option)

Eubanks already announced he’ll opt out of the $2.65 million on his player option, which means he’d make slightly less money if he came back on a veteran minimum. Eubanks also didn’t have a particularly good year in Phoenix and may just be looking for a different situation.

16. Chimezie Metu, Detroit

Metu has some athletic pop but is undersized at 6-9, 225, and has never quite shot well enough (29.8 percent career from 3) to offer a convincing stretch alternative. My numbers still see him as a fringe-rotation big, and he’s only 27.

17. Mo Bamba, Philadelphia

It’s fair to say Bamba hasn’t panned out as hoped, but he’s still a reasonable backup center option with his combination of rim protection (7.4 percent block rate) and 3-point shooting (39.1 percent last season).

18. Jaxson Hayes, L.A. Lakers (player option)

Hayes has a player option for $2.5 million after spending last season on the fringes of the Lakers’ rotation. He likely doesn’t have a stronger market than the minimum but might be able to squeeze out another “one-plus-one” deal like the one he got from L.A. last summer.

19. Thomas Bryant, Miami (player option)

Bryant’s lack of defensive mobility limits his potential role, but he put together a good offensive season (19.0 PER, 63.9 percent true shooting) in his 38 games for Miami. He has a player option for $2.8 million, and I’m not sure he can do any better than that on the market.

20. Dom Barlow, San Antonio (restricted)

Still only 21 but entering his third season, Barlow is a developmental possibility who also played 420 respectable NBA minutes last year. He may ultimately be trapped between the four and five positionally, but if he develops a stretch game, watch out. Note that Barlow is still two-way eligible if the market sours on him.

21. Mike Muscala, Oklahoma City

The Thunder love them some Mike Muscala, so one has to think there’s a good chance he’s back as a third center on a minimum deal.

22. Jericho Sims, New York (team option)

The Knicks’ limited but reliable third center is in there for dunks and defense and absolutely nothing else. The Knicks have a team option for $2.1 million; the contract is only partially guaranteed if they pick it up, but unless they need his contract for a trade, I suspect he’ll be back.

23. James Wiseman, Detroit

Wiseman is theoretically a restricted free agent, but there is zero chance Detroit makes a qualifying offer. I assume some team will be intrigued enough to pursue him as a reclamation project on a minimum deal.

James Wiseman looks unlikely to return to Detroit. (Rich Storry / USA Today)

24. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland

Thompson got into 10 playoff games and gave a relatively solid performance. He’s 33 and can’t score, but he knows exactly what he is as a player and doesn’t try to do anything else. That makes him a reliable third center, if nothing else.

25. Daniel Theis, LA Clippers

Theis is undersized and 32, but he got steady action last season with the Clippers after the Pacers had deemed him unplayable. He’s still mobile enough that he can make a positive impact if he knocks down his 3s.

26. Alex Len, Sacramento

The 31-year-old Len is situationally useful because he’s huge and rebounds, and that may keep him on a roster for another year as a third center. Sacramento has Bird rights on him, but I highly doubt that will become a factor in his next contract.

27. DeAndre Jordan, Denver

Denver’s veteran OG turns 36 in the offseason and has lost a lot of his mobility, but between his locker room role and his ability to protect the paint, he still likely can stick as a third center.

Tier VI: Signed but vulnerable

28. Jock Landale, Houston (non-guaranteed)

A minimum-caliber player due a non-guaranteed $8 million this coming season with no guarantee date, Landale’s situation will depend on whether the Rockets need to drop his salary to complete a signing or roster move. More likely, however, it seems they would pick it up to use him as a walking trade exception for a deal in-season.

29. Bruno Fernando, Atlanta (non-guaranteed)

Fernando has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.7 million and likely will be spent his week praying the Hawks didn’t select Donovan Clingan or Alex Sarr with the first pick in the draft. Atlanta is close enough to the tax line that the Hawks might also consider waiving him and either re-signing him for the veteran’s minimum or adding another center for the vet minimum — which would give them an extra $600,000 or so in breathing room.

30. Orlando Robinson, Miami (non-guaranteed)

Robinson looked like a possible breakout player after a strong 2023 summer league, but he was pretty ordinary in the regular season. He has $75,000 guaranteed on his $2.1 million deal, and Miami’s luxury tax situation could leave him vulnerable. Robinson is also two-way eligible if waived.

31. Ömer Yurtseven, Utah (non-guaranteed)

Yurtseven has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.7 million, but the Jazz may need the cap space to fill out the roster and ink a renegotiate-and-extend deal with Lauri Markkanen. It seems plausible they could waive him and still re-sign him later for the veteran’s minimum.

32. Kenny Lofton, Utah (non-guaranteed)

Lofton signed late last season on a deal that pays $2.1 million, but as with Yurtseven above, Utah may need the cap space for other purposes, so he could be a casualty of that. Lofton is also two-way eligible and would be an attractive target for one of those spots.

33. Kai Jones, LA Clippers (team option)

Jones signed late last season and has a non-guaranteed team option for $2.1 million. If his contract isn’t needed for a trade, the way this likely plays out is that the Clippers pick up the option and then decide on the guarantee in training camp.

Tier VII: Everyone else

34. Bismack Biyombo, Oklahoma City

Summoned from his couch to become the Grizzlies’ starting center, Biyombo was a total zero on offense but added some defensive heft. The Thunder added him late in the year, but he never gained any traction there.

Bismack Biyombo saw action in Memphis and Oklahoma City last season. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)

35. Neemias Queta, Boston (restricted)

Promoted from a two-way late in the year, Queta was pretty effective in his limited 28-game run in Boston. He would be two-way eligible again if he wants to return.

36. Luka Garza, Minnesota (restricted)

The second-best player named Luka to appear in a Western Conference finals game last season, Garza is a productive offensive center but needs to prove he won’t get cooked on the defensive end. He is two-way eligible and could very well end up back in Minnesota on such a deal.

37. Tristan Vukčević, Washington (team option)

The 42nd pick in the 2023 draft played 10 games for the Wizards last season and has a team option for $2.4 million. It’s theoretically possible they could decline it and either sign him to a longer deal or add him as a two-way, but Washington’s rebuilding situation means there isn’t likely big pressure on this roster spot.

38. Damian Jones, Cleveland

Jones gave the Cavs 39 meh games as an extra center, losing out on playoff minutes to Tristan Thompson. He keeps getting chances because of his size and mobility, but at some point, they will run out.

39. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, New Orleans

Robinson-Earl hasn’t been on a two-way in his first three NBA seasons, but that might be his best entry point to a fourth. He’s badly undersized for a five and has yet to show enough offsetting skill as a floor spacer to make up for it, but he’s still only 23.

40. JaVale McGee, Sacramento

McGee played bits and pieces of 46 games for the Kings last year but steadily fell out of the mix after opening the year as their backup center, an encore performance after the same thing happened in Dallas a year earlier. He’s 36, but 7-footers don’t grown on trees.

41. Charles Bassey, San Antonio (non-guaranteed)

Bassey tore his ACL last December and has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.5 million with an Aug. 1 trigger date. Given the crowd on the Spurs’ roster, he may have a tough time making the main roster, but he is still two-way eligible. 

42. Adama Sanogo, Chicago (restricted two-way)

Undrafted out of Connecticut, Sanogo hardly played for the Bulls but was awesome in the G League, posting a 29.1 PER in his 29 games for Windy City and earning third team All-League honors.

43. Oscar Tshiebwe, Indiana (restricted two-way)

A short but physical five who had a strong G League season, Tshiebwe doesn’t space the floor on offense and struggles navigating it on defense, meaning he might have come to the league about two decades too late. Nonetheless, bringing him back on a two-way would make sense.

44. Moussa Diabate, LA Clippers (restricted two-way)

The 43rd pick in the 2022 draft has played two seasons for the Clippers’ G League squad and been solid but not extraordinary. He was a developmental pick, but he’s 22 now — can he step up and become more? He likely has one last season on a two-way to prove himself.

45. Ibou Badji, Portland (restricted two-way)

The 21-year-old 7-footer somehow only got into three G League games but blocked a shot every 10 minutes in his 21 NBA games. I’d expect him to be back as a developmental player.

46. Cody Zeller, New Orleans

Zeller will still screen you into oblivion, but a 48.3 true shooting percentage from the center position isn’t gonna cut it. He’s been here before — Miami signed him off his couch late in the year in 2023 — and might have to wait his turn for a roster spot once again.

47. Thaddeus Young, Phoenix

Young landed in Phoenix after the Nets bought him out, and he played 10 games as a Sun. He’ll turn 37 this offseason and is badly undersized at 6-8, 225, but he might be able to hang on as a third center someplace.

48. Boban Marjanović, Houston

Marjanović is one of the league’s most beloved teammates, but he’s also about to turn 36 and only played in 14 games last season because of his lack of defensive mobility. It’s not clear if he can find a landing spot or if a return to Europe is in the cards.

49. Moses Brown, Portland

Brown is 7-2 and finished last season on an NBA roster, but he’s out of two-way eligibility and, at 24, is no longer young enough to be “intriguing.”

50. Taj Gibson, Detroit

Gibson is 39 and was signed and released three times by New York last year before finishing on a 10-day in Detroit. It seems like this is the end, but as long as Tom Thibodeau is coaching a team, we can’t be sure.

(Photo of Isaiah Hartenstein: Elsa / Getty Images)