New Airbus Study Forecasts Surge In Air Travel And Pinpoints Unserved Flight Routes In Africa

Airbus has released an in-depth study showing the unserved routes to, from, and within Africa. This builds on some data from its Global Market Forecast published in late 2023.

A bit of context

Yesterday, during a presentation at the AviaDev conference in Windhoek, Namibia, Airbus revealed some information on its extensive study. First, the manufacturer defined several categories of unserved routes: routes with no previous nonstop service or routes that previously had nonstop service but were paused and never resumed. To find these routes, Airbus looked at origin and destination (O&D) traffic to see where people traveled to and from and which city pairs could be sustained with their own service. According to the report, Airbus used data from December 2022 to November 2023.

Interestingly, most of the routes on the list were concentrated in a few cities. Cape Town, Nairobi, Lagos, Dakar, and Douala each had several unserved routes at the top. Most unserved pairs are flights connecting Africa to other continents, as intra-African flights have fewer numbers. West Africa has the most unserved routes, with nine of 15 in the report involving the region. Of the top 15, 11 were previously served and cut years ago, and the remaining four were in operation in 2022.

“
With our capacity to make analyses about route and network development potential in-house, Airbus remains committed to partnering with airlines across Africa to identify optimised fleet solutions inline with network development requirements that further stimulate the continent’s air transport industry growth and improve connectivity for travellers.
” – Geert Lemaire, Market Intelligence and Consulting Director, Airbus

Breaking it down

The very first route involves London, which is not surprising, considering the city is one of the most connected in the world. According to Airbus’ study, the city on the other end is Harare, located in Zimbabwe. From December 2022 to November 2023, almost 5,000 passengers flew from Harare to London and nearly 4,000 in the opposite direction. The three carriers that transported the most passengers between the two cities were Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Ethiopian Airlines.

The second route involves a city in one of the fastest-growing markets in the world, India. According to the study, Johannesburg-Mumbai is next on the list. In 2019, the number of passengers flying between the two cities was higher, but in the period studied for the report, more than 3,000 passengers flew in each direction. A vast majority flew through Addis Ababa, 45% to be exact. Airbus determined that launching a nonstop service between Johannesburg and Mumbai would help to regain the remaining 25% of traffic that has not been met since the pandemic. South African Airways and Jet Airways have served this route in the past.

New York City appears on the list as the most underserved route from Africa to North America. Before the pandemic, around 5,000 passengers flew between the two cities monthly, with 25% connecting through Heathrow in London. However, numbers have still not reached their pre-pandemic levels, with around 3,000 passengers flying each way during the study period.

The nearly 3,000 passengers flew on a pretty even spread of airlines from December 2022 to November 2023. Ethiopian Airlines carried most passengers despite not flying to New York. ET had 20%, Delta Air Lines had 18%, and Virgin Atlantic had 16%. Twenty-five percent of passengers transited through LHR, while 16% went through Lome Tokoin Airport in Togo and 11% through Atlanta.

Below is the complete list of the routes in Airbus’ study:

• Harare-London
• Johannesburg-Mumbai
• Lagos-New York
• Lagos-Toronto
• Entebbe-London
• Lagos-Manchester
• Cape Town-Brussels
• Durban-London
• Nairobi-Washington
• Lagos-Houston

Intra-African city pairs

• Dakar-Libreville
• Abidjan-Douala
• Abuja-Nairobi
• Cape Town-Lagos
• Dakar-Douala

What do you make of the list? Please leave a comment below.