NFL Teams Set Up for a Disastrous Start to the 2024 Season

Rookies are starting to report at some training camps around the NFL and the season of optimism is in full swing. After going through free agency and the draft every team has some reason to believe they’ll be better in 2024.

It doesn’t take long for that to belief to go away for some teams.

Getting off to a good start is everyone’s goal, but the reality is that half the league will be 0-1 by the second week of the season. It doesn’t take long for things to start going sideways as the pressure can mount from every loss after that.

Not everyone is set up to have a good start to the season. Whether it be injury situations, a brutal schedule or coaching turnover at key positions, there are a few teams around the league that are going to find it hard to build early momentum.

From there, it becomes a lot more difficult to salvage the season.

Considering schedule, roster and coaching situations, these six teams could face an uphill battle from the outset of the season.

The buzz is palpable in Atlanta after a very aggressive offseason. The Falcons hired Raheem Morris to replace Arthur Smith as the head coach, signed Kirk Cousins and drafted Michael Penix Jr.

There are legitimate reasons to be excited about the offense. They probably have the most improved quarterback situation in the league. Zac Robinson is coming over from the Los Angeles Rams to be the offensive coordinator.

But there might be reason to temper expectations at the beginning of the season.

Cousins and Robinson should both have a lot of say in the offense. While they are both familiar with the off-shoots of the Sean McVay offensive tree, it’s always a process to blend two different perspectives.

Add in the fact that Cousins is recovering from the torn Achilles that ended his season in Week 8 last season and there are bound to be kinks to work out.

The defenses they’ll see in the first three weeks will shrink the margin for error early in the season, though. They kick off the season with the Pittsburgh Steelers at home before traveling to Philadelphia to see the Eagles in Week 2 and going back to Atlanta to see the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.

The Steelers have their own offensive woes to work out of their own, but Pittsburgh, Kansas City and New Orleans were all top eight in defensive EPA allowed per play last season. The Eagles treacherous finish to the season kept them off that list, but they have made a lot of changes to their secondary and brought in Vic Fangio to fix the defense.

If the Falcons don’t hit the ground running offensively, they could be in for a disappointing start.

The Baltimore Ravens will enter the 2024 season with massive expectations. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken helped Lamar Jackson regain MVP form and a trip to the AFC Championship Game will stoke hopes of another season of being a contender.

But there are two glaring concerns that could take a quick start off of the table for the Rams.

The first is the offensive line. The Ravens will be breaking in three new starters this season. Right tackle Morgan Moses was traded to the Jets and will be joined by left guard John Simpson in New York. Kevin Zeitler started at right guard and left to go to the Detroit Lions.

The Ravens aren’t going with proven vets to take over those spots right now. Monken acknowledged that getting the pads on and finding out what the young group can do will be crucial.

“We’re in the development business right now,” Monken said, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. “All those guys are getting invaluable reps now, and obviously, once we put the pads on, for them, [that’s] where it will really be critical. We get a chance to play in the preseason, and then you can assess, ‘Hey, as they keep developing, what are their strengths? [What] do we need to continue to work on?'”

Figuring out who will take over those three starting spots and then figuring out how to maximize their talents within the scheme could take some time.

Throw in a defense that will have to navigate the switch from Mike Macdonald to Zach Orr at defensive coordinator and the Ravens could have some growing pains early on in the season.

The Indianapolis Colts ceiling is going to be determined by how well Anthony Richardson plays this season. How well he plays is likely to depend on just how healthy he is.

Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after playing four games last season, but he was dinged up early and often. Backup Gardner Minshew played at least a few snaps in every game except for Week 3.

The concerning part is that Richardson’s surgically repaired shoulder still caused him to impacted his reps during OTAs earlier in the summer. While he certainly benefitted mentally from getting a year to go to meetings and learn the offense, nothing replaces actual reps.

Richardson was viewed as more of a collection of tools and traits than a finished product coming out of Florida. Missing most of his rookie season could reset the timeline for him to come into his own.

The Colts early schedule doesn’t do them any favors. They’ll open the season with the Houston Texans at home before heading to Lambeau to see the Green Bay Packers in Week 2. Both are emergent playoff teams whose young quarterbacks are ahead of where Richardson is right now.

They’ll follow that up with a much-improved Bears team, a good defensive team in the Steelers and the Jacksonville Jaguars who swept them last season.

There are probably some wins in there, but they will have to keep Richardson healthy and they don’t have Gardner Minshew II this season.

The Colts have some difficult games to start the season, but they don’t have it as bad as their fellow AFC South rival in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will hope to take the next step after giving Trevor Lawrence a new contract and retaining offensive coordinator Press Taylor in 2024.

They’ll have to be ready to go from Week 1 to avoid a terrible start.

According to Mike Clay’s projections for ESPN, the Jaguars won’t have higher than a 44 percent chance to win a game until they play the Colts in Week 5. Their opening quartet of games includes three road trips and four opponents with winning records from last season.

It starts with a trip to Miami where new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will immediately be tasked with slowing down the fastest offense in the league. Then it will be the offenses turn to be tested in a Week 2 game against Myles Garrett and the Browns defense.

Back-to-back road trips against the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans means seeing Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud in yet another tough test for a defense that ranked close to the middle of the pack in most categories last season.

The Jaguars don’t necessarily have as much turnover and uncertainty as some of the other teams set up for a disastrous start, but they might have the toughest schedule.

The Rams defied everyone’s expectations last season with a 10-7 season and another trips to the playoffs under Sean McVay. It’s easy to forget that most of their success came after a 3-6 start to the season.

Last year they had a hard time navigating a brutal schedule at the beginning of the season while also integrating a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball.

It could be deja vu all over again in Los Angeles. The Rams first few weeks are among the most difficult in the league. There’s a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 where they should be the favorites, but it’s sandwiched between a road trip to the Detroit Lions to kick off the season and a Week 3 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

That’s both of the teams who played for the NFC championship in the first three weeks of the season.

Unless they pull off an upset in either of those games, they could be looking at a 1-2 record going into a Week 4 road trip against the Chicago Bears. While that game might have looked like a gimme last season, the Bears should be much improved and the Green Bay Packers await in Week 5.

The good news is that the schedule makers gave Sean McVay and the Rams a breather. They’ll have an early bye in Week 6 with the Raiders and Vikings on the docket for Weeks 7 and 8.

Only winning 1-2 games in the early stretch of the season could start the “Rams are dead” narratives, but they might get saved by the bye week again this year.

The Vikings front office has thrown out the term “competitive rebuild” several times while building the current roster in Minnesota.

We’ll find out just how competitive the rebuild is going to look now that Kirk Cousins is out of the picture pretty quickly. The Vikings allowed Cousins to walk in free agency, signed Sam Darnold as a bridge starter and drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round of this year’s draft.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has already confirmed that Darnold will be the starting quarterback going into training camp. McCarthy is only 21 years old and was drafted based on his long-term projection. It would make sense that he isn’t going to start right away.

Darnold will have a strong suppporting cast, but he’s going to have to play the best football we’ve seen him play for the Vikings to have a strong start. They start the season off with a very winnable game against the New York Giants, but the schedule quickly ramps up from there.

Mike Clay’s projections gives the Vikings a 60 percent chance of beating the Giants in Week 1, but doesn’t see them as the favorite in a game again until Week 11 against the Tennessee Titans. They don’t have a game close to 50 percent until Week 9 against the Colts.

Perhaps that’s underestimating what the Vikings will be able to do with their supporting cast and an aggressive defense. But they get three playoff teams in Week 2-4 followed by the New York Jets who could be a playoff team if Aaron Rodgers is healthy and playing well.