NFL writer believes Chiefs will return to top of offensive rankings in 2024

On Thursday, NFL.com ‘s Gennaro Filice listed what he believes will be the NFL’s top 10 offenses in 2024, focusing on offensive points per game — that is, ignoring touchdowns scored by defenses or special teams units.

Last year, the San Francisco 49ers led the league in that statistic — and in the coming season, Filice expects them to do it again. But behind the 49ers, he lists a unit that didn’t even make 2023’s top 10: the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

SIGNATURE STRENGTH: The best player in football. Fortune favors the bold, and Kansas City hit the jackpot with an audacious trade for Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft. K.C. gave up a third-round pick and a future first-rounder to jump up from No. 27 to No. 10 and take the Texas Tech gunslinger. Obviously, that deal turned out to be highway robbery for the Chiefs. In hindsight, the monetary value of that move — for the Chiefs and the city of Kansas City — is something akin to the gross domestic product of a small nation. It was a legitimate league-changer. In the six seasons since Mahomes took the starting reins, the Chiefs have gone to six AFC Championship Games and four Super Bowls, winning three Lombardi Trophies in the process. Unsurprisingly, Kansas City has also led the NFL in offensive scoring by nearly two whole points during this span (27.1 ppg, with Dallas ranking second at 25.3). Following an uneven 2023 regular season that saw Mahomes finish outside the top five in passing yards and passing touchdowns — and inherently had the Chiefs rank 14th at 21.0 offensive ppg — I have a feeling Andy Reid will come out firing in 2024.

WORRYING WEAKNESS: Chemistry questions at wide receiver. Dealing with multiple injuries — and potentially just the effects of aging — Travis Kelce fell short of 1,000 yards receiving for the first time since 2015. Without the tight end playing at an All-Pro level, the burden fell on Kansas City’s receivers to produce. Most failed to answer the bell. The lone bright spot was rookie Rashee Rice, who really came on in the back half of the year, seemingly setting himself up for a full breakout in 2024. But now Rice’s status is up in the air following a car-racing crash in April that could result in a suspension under the NFL’s personal conduct policy. On the plus side, the Chiefs added a pair of explosive receivers this offseason: free-agent signee Marquise Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Though both are small, Brown and Worthy possess the kind of blazing speed that can stretch a defense beyond its limits, which is something the back-to-back Super Bowl champs have struggled to do since trading Tyreek Hill. How quickly can the two newbies gain a rapport with Mahomes? How much could a suspension impact Rice’s sophomore campaign?

Takeaway

Filice has one thing absolutely right: Mahomes is the key cog in the custom-built machine that head coach Andy Reid operates in Kansas City.

But as time passes, I am progressively less concerned about Mahomes’ wide receiver corps.

It’s fair to note that Hollywood Brown has never lived up to what everyone perceived his potential to be. But if he can’t reach that potential in Kansas City, he never will.

It’s reasonable to remind people that Worthy is a rookie — but also fair to note he’s a very fast one. That’s exactly what Mecole Hardman was in 2019, when he gained more than 500 yards through the air and was a second-team All-Pro returner.

With Brown and Worthy joining Hardman and Justin Watson, the Chiefs will be able to threaten with downfield speed on every snap — even if Rice is watching the game on TV. That’s good news not only for tight end Travis Kelce, but also for his backups Noah Gray, Irv Smith and rookie Jared Wylie.

I’m not positive the Chiefs will return to fielding a top-5 offense in 2024. But as long as Mahomes is the quarterback, that’s on the table — and it’s hard to imagine the unit won’t at least improve on its 2023 production.