Our NBA experts debate: Can Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving hold off Celtics in finals?

The Athletic is launching a new series of sports debates in which two writers break down a specific topic. In this NBA edition, David Aldridge and Marcus Thompson II discuss the NBA Finals and whether the Dallas Mavericks star duo can pull off the upset that many have started to expect. 

Aldridge: So, we’re here to discuss whether these finals will provide a referendum on whether Luka Dončić will be crowned the best player in the world if the Dallas Mavericks beat the Boston Celtics. And, sure, I get the supposed value in this kind of “debate,” even if I protest my participation in it. These finals will be intriguing.

Thompson: Fine, I’ll say it. If Luka wins the championship this year HE IS THE GREATEST PLAYER OF ALL TIME. Yes, I am yelling.

How is that? How am I doing at this debate thing?

Aldridge: Not enough exclamation points!!! I have to read you shouting!!!

Forget legacies. Dallas-Boston is full of storylines. Any of Luka, Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown could be the finals MVP. Conceivably, so could Jrue Holiday or Derrick White or, if he dominates the paint, Dereck Lively II. This is one of the most fascinating championship series in recent memory. I can’t wait to see what the adjustments are to whatever happens Thursday in Game 1.

Do we see Kyrie guarding Kristaps Porziņģis at some point? Or Jrue on Lively? How does Boston get Luka in screen-and-roll actions defensively, and how does Dallas do the same to KP? Who goes zone first, and for how long? If Boston wins, does Joe Mazzulla finally get some love in Beantown? If Dallas wins, does Mark Cuban say “psyche” and try to undo the deal he made with the Adelson family? Boston’s been the best team in the league all season; Dallas has been the hottest team in the league since March. I’m excited about this one.

Thompson: Oh, we’re doing the adult conversation thing. My bad.

Aldridge: I am just loath to assign lasting value to any one series, even a championship series. There’s this whole referendum structure in Boston (partly because it’s Boston, and the standard every season is championship or bust) about how vital it is for Tatum and Brown to break through and finally win a chip with the Celtics being so good in the last few seasons. But even though this is Boston’s second finals in three seasons, the team that lost 4-2 to Golden State is completely different from this one, even though Tatum and Brown were the main cogs in that machine, too.

To say that Tatum and Brown need to win it this year to somehow validate their status as superstars feels forced to me. I’m old enough to remember when smart people in our business wrote that Michael Jordan, seven years into his Hall of Fame career, didn’t make his teammates better because he hadn’t yet won a ring.

Thompson: But in the scope of legacy, and adhering to the modern discourse of GOAT herding, this is a big series for Tatum. Not because it’s a referendum on his greatness. But because he’d be flirting with joining the list of greats who never won it all. He’s been to five conference finals. This is his second trip to the big dance. He’s spent his preadolescent basketball years on the NBA’s biggest stages. Usually, the best breakthrough eventually. He’s gone toe to toe with some absolute legends — LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry — and there is no shame in losing to them. Based on his talent and his experience, he is worthy of being a champion. But when you get this many cracks, with this many versions of teams, you start running the risk of missing your moment. And it’s not getting easier with this new generation of talent.

I remember as a teenager how my beloved Jordan would get crushed for not winning it all. I think people who weren’t around didn’t understand how much of a thing it was until the Bulls finally won in 1991. This will become a thing if Tatum doesn’t win. It will be all about how he can’t win the big one. Tatum has been groomed to be a king. It’s time for him to grab his crown. Because if Dončić doesn’t take it now, doesn’t it feel inevitable he will soon?

Aldridge: Hmm … maybe? The modern NBA is littered with “we’re inevitable” teams: the Cavs of the early 1990s, the Chris Webber/Vlade Divac Kings, Dwight Howard’s Magic, OKC in 2011 and on and on. Injuries (Derrick Rose’s knee; Penny Hardaway’s back; John Wall’s Achilles) take rising franchises out in a nanosecond. Coaches lose their locker room; superstars lose their patience. And, the West remains a minefield.

Assuming a return to form for Ja Morant, Memphis will be back in the saddle next season to challenge the Mavs, Wolves, Thunder and Suns. A potential conference-shifting trade is always in the air. We had no idea at this time last season that Damian Lillard would wind up in Milwaukee rather than Miami. And the best player on Earth is still in Denver, and he’s gonna have a horse-sized chip on his shoulder again next season.

Nikola Jokić of the Nuggets shoots the ball against Kyle Anderson of the Timberwolves during the Western Conference semifinals. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

Thompson: I agree Nikola Jokić is still the best in the league. This idea of the best player being this fluid, shifting phenomenon is a bit ridiculous, especially considering the wealth of factors that decide these championships. Now as much as ever, the collection of best players are all capable of winning based on health, quality of supporting cast and even matchups. I am not ready to say Jokić has relinquished the throne after one postseason ouster. I know a lot of people will be ready to anoint Luka if Dallas wins, and I see it.

But whoever wins this year will be the sixth superstar in as many years to win it all: Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, Jokić and either Luka or Tatum. And a seventh could win it in 2025. It’s impossible in this landscape to say winning the championship makes a player the BEST IN THE LEAGUE. But if that doesn’t, then what does? Are we nearing the end of ringzzzzz culture?

Aldridge: Don’t get me wrong — there is a stake in who wins every year. I mean, this is why we have an 82-game regular season and two months of playoffs, right – to find out who wins? These are among the most competitive people on the planet. I just don’t think it should be the only measure of greatness.

I’m old now. But Charles Barkley was a great basketball player. John Stockton was great. Reggie Miller was great. Webber was great. And James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Paul George have had great careers that are not yet over. But none of them has won a single NBA title. Because it’s f—ing hard to get one. Either Luka or Tatum will not get one this year. But, damn, they’re both still great players.

Thompson: That to me is the interesting part about this current era where there is no dynasty to gobble up all the championships. Unlike the Barkleys, Stocktons and Millers of the world, who just happened to come along when the GOAT was doing his thing, there is a real chance for this next generation to grab a chip and the instant credibility that comes with it. And, hopefully, this forces us to rethink these conversations, or at least think about how we measure greatness. If it’s not just about championships — because none of them may end up with a bounty of rings like Kobe, LeBron and Steph — then it becomes a virtual Royal Rumble of future legends.

It’s akin to the ’70s, before Magic and Bird changed the league. It was a roll of the dice who would win. You had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s Bucks and Willis Reed’s Knicks and Jerry West finally breaking through with Wilt Chamberlain. Rick Barry’s Warriors won a title. So did Bill Walton’s Blazers. Even your Bullets won a chip with Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld and Bob Dandridge. It was a free-for-all. And you know what we had to do before anointing someone as the GOAT? Wait. Watch how it all played out. Let careers run their course.

I’m saying we like I was there. I was not. So maybe they were debating about what knocking off Alvan Adams and Paul Westphal’s Suns in the finals did for Dave Cowen’s legacy — redeeming himself from losing to the Knicks in his MVP year the season before. Or maybe he was considered a fraud because Jo Jo White won the finals MVP. You know how the media can be.

Aldridge: It’s funny to me that people are now saying they love this post-Warriors era with no dominant team. In that most democratic era you mentioned, in the ‘70s, nooooobody watched! The finals games were on tape delay, at 11:30 p.m. in the East! It took Magic and Bird coming in to save the league.

Thompson: And now we watch them delayed on League Pass. Time is a flat circle.

Aldridge: Anyway, we gotta pick a winner for Boston-Dallas. I’m going with the Celtics in six games, and here’s why:

The Mavs have become an elite defense since the trade deadline; they’re No. 1 in defensive rating since early March. But they’ve become great at defending the very thing that is the least important thing for the Celtics offense: paint points. The Cs lead, and by a lot, in percentage of their postseason shots that are 3s (47.4 percent), just as they led that category during the regular season. (It should be noted: Dallas was second in the league in that category in the regular season and the playoffs.)

Boston is better at hunting and making 3s than anybody in recent memory, and that includes Harden’s Rockets and the Splash Brothers’ Warriors. Even those teams had someone against whom you could play drop coverage (Clint Capela/Andrew Bogut/Kevon Looney).

Who do you slough off of when you play Boston? Yeah, Brown is usually the first name on everyone’s lips, but he’s shooting 37 from beyond the arc so far this postseason. Holiday is shooting almost 40 percent from deep; White is shooting better than 40. OK, Al Horford is only a 34 percent 3-point shooter in the playoffs … but, just in time, here comes Porziņģis, who hit almost 38 percent of his 3s in the regular season, back on the floor, after suffering a calf injury in the first round against Miami.

Daniel Gafford and Lively are true warriors at the rim, but KP doesn’t live there. He sets up at the elbows, is 7 foot 3 and can still get off his shot, even over the 7-1 Lively or the 6-10 Gafford. And if he drifts out to the line, even Lively and/or Gafford can’t recover that much.

Jayson Tatum of the Celtics blocks this shot attempt by Donovan Mitchell of the Cavaliers during the Eastern Conference semifinals. (Jason Miller / Getty Images)

Tatum is shooting just 29 percent behind the arc in the playoffs. Also, Boston is 14-2 so far in the playoffs. At any rate, do you want to build a defense designed to beat the Celtics four times in seven games on the strategy of conceding uncontested looks from deep to Tatum?

And, entering the finals, Boston has a net rating of 11.6. Right now, that is tied, with the 2016-17 Dubs, for the third-best single-season net rating in NBA history, per StatMuse. Eight of the previous 10 teams with the biggest single-season net ratings won the title.

So, while I think the Mavs can take a couple of games in this series on the strength of their significant Luka/Kyrie-centric firepower, I just don’t think Dallas can turn off Boston’s water from deep often enough to win this thing.

Thompson: Boston is 61-9 this season when they make at least 15 3s, which they’ve done in 72.9 percent of their games. That includes all seven playoff games the Celtics have won when making 15 or more from deep — and won those games by an average of 16.9 points. In their two losses this postseason, they made 12 and eight 3-pointers. When the Celtics are making 3s, they’ve been unbeatable. And 15 isn’t some crazy number for them to hit. If they do, they very likely will win that game comfortably.

So either Dallas just cooks the Celtics, which I just don’t see happening more than a game (Boston is good for allowing one), or this is going to come down to the Mavericks keeping the game close enough for Luka and Kyrie to work some magic. It’s quite the ace in the hole, but I just love Boston’s defensive versatility. The postseason is about matchups and the Celtics seem to have the bodies and types to throw at Dallas’ stars.

Holiday and White are excellent point-of-attack defenders who are not deterred by buckets. They navigate screens well and are incredibly smart defenders who can adjust on the fly. Then you have Tatum and Brown, the ideal long and athletic wings. Then you have a 7-2 rim protector in Porziņģis. And even without him, they’ve got Horford, who can still play some defense.

Boston in close games can turn it up defensively. Their defensive rating in the clutch this postseason is 85.4 per 100 possessions. That’s wild. Second was Oklahoma City at 102.2. Boston did that against inferior offenses even when fully stocked, but the Celtics have a switch where they can suffocate. During the regular season, their clutch defensive rating was 105, tied for sixth. Dallas has been tremendous defensively, too. But not so much in the clutch: 116.9 in nine postseason clutch games. You don’t have to be lights out when you can score every time down. But Boston is just as explosive offensively in a different way.

I trust the Celtics slightly more to get the big stops. Celtics in six. It’s their time. The greatness of Luka and Kyrie and the sheer terror they provoke keeps me from picking Boston in five.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)