Andy Schooler previews the men’s singles at Wimbledon and among three bets is a 20/1 outright fancy.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon men’s singles
Recommended bets:
2pts e.w. Hubert Hurkacz to win the title at 20/1 (General – 1/2 1,2)
1pt Sebastian Korda to win the third quarter at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt Matteo Berrettini to win the first quarter at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Wimbledon, men’s singles
· All England Club, Wimbledon, London, England, UK (outdoor grass)
It really has been a pleasure to live through the era of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, in my book the two greatest players of all time.
Between them, the pair have dominated much of the last 20 years at Wimbledon and I can’t be the only one who got used to one of them going off a very short favourite.
This year, therefore, feels unusual with three players all shorter than 7/2, namely world number one Jannik Sinner, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic himself.
The layers clearly feel the winner will come from that trio and while you can understand that assessment, I’m not totally convinced.
Sinner is the favourite but has not got the record on grass that he has on the other surfaces.
That said, there have encouraging signs for his backers – the Italian made the semi-finals for the first time here 12 months ago (losing to Djokovic), while only last weekend was he capturing the first grasscourt title of his career having triumphed at the big warm-up event in Halle.
However, the fact remains that he’s no bigger than 15/8 – and then we move onto his draw.
After facing Yannick Hanfmann first up, Sinner could meet the 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini in the second round, a man with a superb record on grass.
In this field, only Djokovic and Andy Muray have won more grasscourt titles than the Italian (four), who is 40-7 on the surface since the start of 2019.
OK, Berrettini is still feeling his way back after another injury setback but such is his propensity for grass that he made the Stuttgart final earlier this month having not played a match in two months.
His serve is deadly on this surface, especially when the ball is skidding through as it likely would be were he to meet Sinner on day three when the courts are still luscious.
That looks a very dangerous match but it’s not the only potential pitfall.
Tallon Griekspoor, a likely third-round opponent, is a former champion at the Den Bosch grasscourt tournament and a player who took a setoff Sinner in Halle, while big servers Ben Shelton and Lloyd Harris are both potentially tricky fourth-round foes.
Daniil Medvedev is Sinner’s seeded quarter-final opponent, while Alcaraz could then follow with the third seed having been placed in the same half, meaning the top two in the betting can’t meet in the final.
None of this means Sinner can’t win, but I can’t back him at the price given the situation he faces.
I’d be slightly more inclined to side with Alcaraz but, again, he’s no great price at 5/2.
Putting hm up against Sinner, what I like is the fact is he’s been there and done it at Wimbledon – his victory over Djokovic in a thrilling final last year should give him plenty of confidence coming in.
While most at home on clay, Alcaraz has the groundstroke winners, the volleys and the drop shots to succeed on grass – as he showed 12 months ago – and I think that his game will match up well against virtually anyone on this surface.
But I mentioned clay there and that relates to the worries I have with Alcaraz.
First of all, he comes in off the back of a recent victory at the French Open, achieving arguably his top career goal – that is the trophy the claycourters all want on the mantelpiece.
You have to wonder if there’s a dip mentally now – Djokovic famously lost his mojo for some time after completing the career Grand Slam in Paris in 2016.
Secondly, the Olympics are looming – they start less than a fortnight after the Wimbledon final – and they will be played back at Roland Garros, on the same claycourts on which Alcaraz recently triumphed.
I’m not saying Alcaraz will be holding anything back at Wimbledon – at least not consciously – but it is a tournament he’s already won, while a gold medal is lacking from his collection.
You can also argue whether or not Wimbledon is the top priority this summer for Djokovic. I’d say it almost certainly isn’t.
Djokovic, now 37, is still missing Olympic gold from his incredible collection and will surely be doing everything he can to claim that in Paris in the coming weeks.
Of course, to the amazement of many, he arrived at the All England Club this week just two weeks after undergoing knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus.
Having practised at Wimbledon and played an exhibition match at the Hurlingham Club – beating Medvedev – the Serb looks set to play an event everyone had basically assumed he’d miss in a bid to be ready for those Olympic Games.
Any seven-time champion lining up on the start line has to be considered a threat and if he is fully fit, he warrants serious respect.
But, certainly in betting terms, what we need to remember here is that Djokovic’s form was below par prior to his knee injury – he arrives in SW19 without a title to his name in 2024 and has lost matches to Luca Nardi, Alejandro Tabilo and Tomas Machac.
It is only the second time in 18 seasons that he has got this far into the year without having won a trophy.
The good news is that Djokovic’s draw is almost ideal, certainly as far as the first week goes.
He looks to have a string of matches in which he can play his way into form – and he’s obviously avoided both Sinner and Alcaraz with the pair in the opposite half.
Still, those form issues, coupled with the injury uncertainty, mean I can’t be backing the Serb at 7/2.
We’re therefore in a familiar position of having picked holes in the market leaders which begs the question ‘if not them, who?’
Given the lop-sided nature of the draw, the way to go has to be to seek out some value in the bottom half where, if you are happy to oppose Djokovic, things look very open.
For me, the man to back is HUBERT HURKACZ at 20/1.
The Pole was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon three years ago and claimed the title in Halle in 2022.
Last year he fully tested Djokovic in the last 16 before ultimately losing in four sets.
Still, it should be remembered that Hurkacz led both the first and second set tie-breaks by a mini-break and had a handful of points gone the other way, he could easily have caused the upset.
The way he played that day would certainly give him confidence going into any rematch in this year’s quarter-finals.
The key element about all of those Hurkacz performances was his serve – he bangs down the aces and is incredibly tough to break on this surface.
On the ace front, Hurkacz served more than anyone on the ATP Tour last season and is well on course to repeat the trick in 2024.
The crushing forehand of Hurkacz is a massive serve-plus-one shot, particularly on grass. Coupled with the big first serve, you can see why he’s hard to break.
That combination has helped him garner a career hold percentage on grass of 91.7%. That rises to 92.8% when cutting out matches played before 2021, while his run in Halle this month saw him hold serve a remarkable 96.5% of the time.
OK, his stats on return are hardly sparkling but when you also have a strong tie-break record (64% won on grass since the start of 2021), they don’t need to be.
Some will balk, citing the theory that you need more than this to succeed at Wimbledon these days; it’s a long time since Goran Ivanisevic and Pete Sampras were serve-volleying their way to titles.
But don’t be fooled by the ‘all courts play the same these days’ argument.
The fact is that big serves have helped Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios to Wimbledon finals in the past decade and I would not be surprised if Hurkacz follows suit.
Staying in the bottom half, I also think the third quarter is worth a good look.
It’s by far the weakest of the four with Alex Zverev and Andrey Rublev the leading seeds but they have precisely zero grasscourt titles between them and the surface is far from ideal for the duo.
Perhaps Jack Draper can fly the flag for the host nation after his maiden tour title arrived on the grass of Stuttgart, but he’s a player who’s struggled with injury issues for much of his fledgling career and I am far from convinced that best-of-five-set tennis is good for him.
His recent success, plus his nationality, also mean he’s almost certainly shorter than he really should be.
Taylor Fritz, the 2022 quarter-finalist, is another with potential here but the player I like the most is SEBASTIAN KORDA.
The American, brother of world golf number one Nelly Korda, hasn’t exactly been Mr Reliable over the years, often losing matches in surprise fashion, but he’s produced a good run of form since moving onto the grass and that’s made me sit up and take notice.
Korda was runner-up in Den Bosch and the following week made the semis at Queen’s Club where it again took the eventual champion to beat him.
That’s taken his career grasscourt record to a pretty healthy 16-8, a run which includes a last-16 appearance here at Wimbledon in 2021 on debut where he lost a crazy match to Karen Khachanov which was there for the taking.
This will be only Korda’s third visit to the All England Club but given the section of the draw he’s landed in, I feel backing him to win the quarter at 10/1 is worthwhile.
I’ll finish off with another quarter bet by returning to the aforementioned MATTEO BERRETTINI.
I’ve long been keen on the Italian’s chances on the grass – here’s my ante-post Wimbledon preview from December as evidence (https://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/tennis-betting-tips-2024-grand-slam-preview-and-best-antepost-bets/214317).
While his injury issues didn’t clear up as quickly as either he or I would have liked, he has made it to the start line in fairly decent shape.
The draw has thrown up that potential Sinner clash and if he is able to win that, the possibilities really open up.
Taking a small punt on Berrettini to win the quarter at 12/1 looks the way to go, with Unibet’s 8/1 about him reaching the last eight a decent alternative.
Posted at 1030 BST on 29/06/24
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