Paul Flynn’s All-Ireland SFC semi-finals predictions

The All-Ireland SFC semi-finals loom down the track this weekend, with Kerry facing Armagh on Saturday, while the Ulster and Connacht champions, Donegal and Galway, collide on Sunday afternoon.

Prior to that, Down will aim to make amends for last summer’s disappointment against Justin McNulty’s rejuvenated Laois side in Saturday’s Tailteann Cup decider.

Ahead of the weekend, six-time All-Ireland winner Paul Flynn runs the rule over the three games.

In the fourth quarter against Derry, I thought Kerry were very impressive. They had a bit of purpose about them, no turnovers. Their efficiency was very high in shooting. And they had direct runners coming off the bench.

I’d love to see Kerry going at that from the start. They can really cause Armagh headaches if they play the game on their terms.

In my opinion, Armagh have a tougher defensive structure than Derry. They’re exceptionally well organised. They play the game on the edge. They’re so well conditioned – probably the best conditioned team still in the championship.

And if they can turn over the ball, they can punish teams. They don’t ponder with the ball like Derry do. They’ve kickers like (Rian) O’Neill and (Rory) Grugan that can get the ball into the full-forward line at pace and really expose the Kerry defensive line with the speed they have.

They’re going to ask serious questions of Kerry this weekend and if the game is played on Armagh’s terms, I think Armagh can cause an upset here.

They’ve got a really, really strong bench, with the likes of Soupy (Stefan) Campbell and Jarly Óg Burns. I feel that Armagh team have a lot of hurt in them and they’ve bottled up that hurt.

And now they’ve got an opportunity, in a season where the Ulster final was so disappointing, where they can bottle up that energy. I feel they can get over the line and cause an upset.

Verdict: Armagh

The question is whether Padráic Joyce can get the Galway lads grounded and humble enough to really prepare for this Donegal challenge.

We’ve seen it in the past when teams topple the Dubs – or the favourites in a competition – they really feel they’ve won the competition at that point. It’s only a win in a quarter-final.

Galway have such a strong team when they have their full first XV on the pitch. We’ve seen it this year, what they can do when (Shane) Walsh, (Damien) Comer and (Rob) Finnerty are all on the pitch. They still have injury worries, Walsh and (Sean) Kelly are concerns.

They’ve got a great structure at the back. They understand their system so well. It’s not a work in progress. They absolutely get it and it’ll suit Donegal’s running game.

Because Donegal really want to exploit spaces and weaknesses in that defensive structure. And really when Galway are on it, they don’t have weaknesses in that system.

Comer will be sharper. He really came into the quarter-final in the second half, more as a playmaker than a scorer. But if they can get quick ball into him – and we saw Louth were able to do it in the quarter-final – they can cause problems.

Donegal are really good at attacking the central channels, it’s very interesting to watch the way they run the ball. They get six and seven players inside the full-forward line and they try to get two and three around the D. But it’s a dangerous game to play and if they turn it over, and Galway can get the ball quickly into Comer, there will be space in the defensive structure.

This is not the same Donegal team we saw in 2011, 2012, where everyone got behind the ball. They’re all out attack, they’re averaging 20 points a game. It’s a real evolution in Jim’s (McGuinness) tactics.

This could be a very exciting game.

On the basis that Galway will have their full team, I’m going to give them the edge. But this could really be a tight one and it wouldn’t surprise me if it goes either way.

Verdict: Galway

We’ve come to the pinnacle of the Tailteann Cup, which has been a great success again this year.

Down will be hurting since last year. But Justin McNulty has done an inspiring job in Laois. It just shows you what a good management team and a good structure can do for a county.

I feel this game will show how much they’ve turned things around in the camp. I don’t think it’ll be a 22 point game this year – as it was in the 2023 semi-final – but I feel Down will have two or three points to spare over them.

Verdict: Down

Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1’s Morning Ireland

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Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship semi-finals, Armagh v Kerry (5.30pm on Saturday on RTÉ2) and Donegal v Galway (4pm on Sunday on RTÉ2). Both games available on RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

Watch Down v Laois in the Tailteann Cup final on Saturday from 2.45pm on RTE2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1