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Predicting who will start for Auburn basketball, other potential lineups

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5 months ago

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Predicting who will start for Auburn basketball, other potential lineups

AUBURN — Auburn basketball has yet to make his addition official, but Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly committed to the Tigers on May 26 and withdrew his name from the 2024 NBA Draft process by the May 29 deadline.

He’ll soon become the 12th scholarship player on Auburn’s roster, putting the finishing touch on the team coach Bruce Pearl will take into his 11th season on the Plains. Division I squads are allotted 13 scholarship spots, but Pearl usually leaves one of those positions open. His reasoning stems from a desire to keep his players happy, as an end-of-bench scholarship player may grow frustrated with a lack of minutes.

Pearl also often grants a walk-on a scholarship. The latest example was Carter Sobera, who spent the first three years of his career with the Tigers as a walk-on before he earned a scholarship midway through his senior campaign last season.

Expectations for Auburn are perhaps the highest they’ve ever been under Pearl, given the fact the Tigers are returning All-American center Johni Broome and other key contributors such as Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara. Some notable additions like Kelly and Furman transfer JP Pegues are in the mix now, too.

With the roster set, here’s who think will start for Auburn during the 2024-25 campaign, as well some creative lineups the Tigers could consider:

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Auburn basketball starters: Predicting the first unit

  • PG: JP Pegues
  • SG: Denver Jones
  • SF: Chad Baker-Mazara
  • PF: Chaney Johnson
  • C: Johni Broome

Unlike some other seasons, the suspense of finding out the starting five may not be as pronounced this time around. Broome and Pegues are virtual locks given their prior accomplishments and the state of the team − Pegues is the only true point guard on the roster − and Johnson, a former Alabama-Huntsville transfer, is the clear favorite at power forward.

There’s a world where Kelly could push for a starting role and supplant either Jones or Baker-Mazara; the 6-foot-6 wing led the Yellow Jackets in scoring over the last two seasons. But the duo of Jones and Baker-Mazara are the incumbents, and that experience in Pearl’s system should give them the upper hand. Having Kelly come off the bench as a sixth man would be quite the luxury, regardless.

Pace and space

  • PG: Tahaad Pettiford
  • SG: Denver Jones
  • SF: Miles Kelly
  • PF: Chad Baker-Mazara
  • C: Johni Broome

Much is still to be learned about incoming five-star freshman Tahaad Pettiford, but Pearl has had high praise for the coveted recruit out of New Jersey: “He’s going to be one of the fastest, quickest, most explosive little guards I’ve ever had,” Pearl said in March of Pettiford. Considering his athleticism and apparent speed, having Pettiford lead a pace-and-space lineup would make sense.

The key here would be whether or not Baker-Mazara could hold up on the defensive end. There’s no questioning his toughness and desire − he was fourth on the team in rebounds last season − but his listed weight of 180 pounds at 6-foot-7 makes him an outlier.

Jones, Kelly, Baker-Mazara and Broome combined to shoot 67-for-166 (40.4%) on 3-pointers over the final 10 games of the 2023-24 season.

Jumbo package

  • PG: Denver Jones (6-4)
  • SG: Miles Kelly (6-6)
  • SF: Chaney Johnson (6-7)
  • PF: Johni Broome (6-10)
  • C: Dylan Cardwell (6-11)

Broome and backup big man Dylan Cardwell didn’t share the floor much last season, but the tandem was largely effective in the limited time it was deployed. Auburn outscored its opponents by 13 points in the 12:05 Broome and Cardwell played alongside one another, according to College Basketball Analytics. Most of that data came at Georgia in February (+10 in 10:35).

Jones has shown the ability to be the main ball handler, and his 6-foot-4 frame coupled with his point-of-attack defense often made him a pest for foes to deal with. Johnson didn’t play any minutes at small forward last season, but Pearl recently broached the idea of him getting some minutes at the position.

“I think Chaney gives us some flexibility,” Pearl said in May. “I think Chaney, while he’s demonstrated he can play 4, 5, could he play a little big 3? Possibly. If we play some zone, I think he could do it defensively. … I think as he tries to do a little bit more, the question will be: Will his assist-to-turnover ratio be good?

“He’s a good passer, not a great passer. As he has the ball in his hands more, is he able to be as productive without turning the ball over? That’s just going to take a summer of putting it in his hands and letting him actually make some mistakes this summer. Letting him be really aggressive with the ball, kick it around a little bit so he gets more comfortable with it.”

Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @rich_silva18.

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