Projecting the 2025 NFL draft order: Favorites for the No. 1 overall pick, plus who cracks the top 10?

There are seven weeks until NFL training camp, more than three months until the 2024 regular season and nearly a year until the 2025 NFL draft. We know what you’re thinking: Is it too early to think about the 2025 draft? The answer is no.

Let’s take a first look at the projected first-round draft order for 32 teams with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

After you check out the the full 1-32 projection for the 2025 NFL draft below, take a glance at more FPI takeaways for the upcoming season.

Average draft position: 5.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.4%

Average draft position: 5.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.7%

Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.1%

Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 65.1%

Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.8%

Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.9%

Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54.8%

Average draft position: 11.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.56%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.1%

Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.5%

Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 43.6%

Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.1%

Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 14%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.9%

Average draft position: 15.0
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.2%

Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.5%

Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26%

Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4%

Average draft position: 16.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.9%

Average draft position: 17.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2%

Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%

Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.2%

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Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.8%

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Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10%

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Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.6%

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Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%

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Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%

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Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%

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Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%

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Average draft position: 24.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%

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Average draft position: 24.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.5%

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Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%

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Average draft position: 25.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%