Racing Tips – Deira Mile can outrun 20/1 odds in The Derby

It was a disappointing start to Epsom with both selections losing on the day.

Hamish ran well to finish second and looking back now, I probably should have advised a top-two finish as I fancied the horse to run a big race.

Zoum Zoum let me down yet again and it appears I got on the bandwagon a tad late as before his last two runs he had won three on the bounce.

Tomorrow is another day and hopefully, we can land a winner to get back on track.

Deira Mile 20/1 EW – Epsom 4:30

I’ll start of with my main selection of the day which comes in the big race of the day.

All eyes will be on City Of Troy who is the best horse in this contest if you are going by what we saw from him last season. Regardless, he has questions to answer after a no-show in the Guineas. If City Of Troy won the Guineas then you’d probably be looking at him trading around even money or as short as odds on.

City Of Troy is still favourite for this contest and you can still make an argument that the 3/1 on offer is a decent play if you fancy him to bounce back to what we saw of him last season. My worry with laying him as a bet is you are solely going on the hope that he can replicate the form he showed back in October of last year, and even that is a worry as it was over 7f and not the 1m4 that he runs over tomorrow.

For the reasons mentioned above, I opted to look elsewhere in terms of an each-way play and my eye was drawn to the Owen Burrows-trained Deira Mile which will ridden by jockey Jim Crowley.

Charlie Johnston originally trained my selection before changing hands to Owen Burrows in October of last year. Deira Mile was turned over at 1/5 on his last start for Charlie Johnson but the change of ownership has seemingly brought Deira Mile to life.

I was impressed with his first run for Owen Burrows which saw him finish fourth in the Group 1 Futurity. When you pick out the bones of that run, there’s no doubt it was a brilliant effort. He stayed on well that day to finish 2 ¾ length of the eventual winner Ancient Wisdom. That contest was over a mile but the fact he stayed on strongly, while also running in testing conditions told me he would be suited by a step up in trip, which proved to be the case as he won on his most recent outing over 1m2f in pretty easy fashion.

Most firms are offering 4 places in this race so the 20/1 that’s on offer seems a reasonable each-way play.

Astral Beau 9/1 EW – Epsom 2:00

Astral Beau is just about worth an each-way play at Epsom on Saturday.

My selection wasn’t up to much in her last race but I’m happy enough to draw a line through the effort and concentrate more on what she’s achieved previously in her career.

My selection ran in this same race last year which saw her finish third, that was a cracking run given she was running on good to firm ground which isn’t her favored ground. The forecast ground at Epsom tomorrow is soft and the return to a softer surface is more up her street.

Finding a horse who runs well on soft ground is key for Epsom and Astral Beau certainly ticks the boxes. Astral Beau has only been beaten by three horses in her entire career when running on soft. The stat just mentioned is pretty impressive when you consider the three horses that she has been beaten by are Charyn and two Group 1 winners Al Husn and Via Sistina.

9/1 looks over-priced in my opinion as this contest looks a bit easier on paper than her previous run. Those at the head of the market also appear too short in my eyes. Running Lion although finishing second on her last outing, I thought was a bit underwhelming, while Chic Colombine has to bounce back from a poor run over in France which was only a couple of weeks ago.

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media