Rocket Mortgage Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Rocket Mortgage Classic

3pts e.w. Min Woo Lee at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 70/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Alejandro Tosti at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jake Knapp at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Perhaps the masterplan was all geared around making everyone care about the Rocket Mortgage Classics of this world. Some of us needed no assistance, of course, but after three weeks of permanently top-class, high-stakes golf, maybe there will be more people who understand the beauty and importance of things that are one step below that. Or maybe a lot of people will just switch off from the sport altogether as they gear up for the Open in a few weeks. Both are valid.

There’s no ambiguity when it comes to who exactly will most celebrate the return of a normal PGA Tour event: rank-and-file members, mules, whatever you want to call them. When people tell you it’s a great time to be a professional golfer because a few of them are making more money than anyone could reasonably argue they are actually worth, think of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates, those DP World Tour members who came over in January and anyone else who can’t get a game in a Signature Event. For many of them, it’s not been great.

Take Kevin Dougherty for example. He’s in his 30s, never going to be a superstar. He’s expendable from the Tour’s perspective, make no mistake, and you can form a strong argument that he’s earned about as much as he should’ve earned from the skills he’s shown. Still, he did manage to get a PGA Tour card under the rules set out by the PGA Tour and he’s played to about a Tour-average standard since then. Now, with July approaching, he’s playing in his 15th event, and he’s doing so from well short of the FedEx Cup cut-off line.

This is the start of a busy stretch for players like Dougherty but if he takes every opportunity currently available to him, he’ll play 20 times this season, each of them with a cut. Maybe that’s right. Maybe it should be this hard. But there’s no denying whatsoever that he’s had the odds stacked against him, when they’re in favour of someone like Webb Simpson, who has collected FedEx Cup points in events he’s been invited to play, which often do not have cuts or at the very least feature far fewer players.

For others, like Tom Kim and Cameron Young, the challenge has been less about the money or the points, more about how exactly you win tournaments when you play a high-class schedule. Since Scottie Scheffler remembered how to put, he’s won all the Signature Events he’s played in. When he took a week off, Rory McIlroy did what he does at Quail Hollow. Crumbs are worth more than ever, but they’re still crumbs.

Kim was brilliant last week and is back at the top of his game, but this will be his ninth start in a row. Young looks lightly-raced by comparison but he’s on week five and while this looks an obvious opportunity following his runner-up finish in 2022, you don’t need many excuses not to chase his first win at 14/1. Fatigue following a Travelers 59 is all that I need.

Of the favourites, MIN WOO LEE stands out and while it’s his course debut, Detroit should suit him down to the ground.

Last year’s renewal confirmed that anyone can contend here as Adam Hadwin, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa and Taylor Pendrith were the four main protagonists ahead of Taylor Moore, and this is a particularly mixed bunch.

However, Tony Finau had previously dominated a bomber-heavy renewal, Cameron Davis and Joaquin Niemann were two-thirds of the 2021 play-off, and a year earlier we had ourselves a US Open rehearsal as Bryson DeChambeau saw off Matthew Wolff before they did battle again at Winged Foot.

With Cameron Champ also in the mix back then it’s pretty clear that this classical, tree-lined par 72, which is long enough on paper, has become vulnerable to those willing to attack it off the tee. Perhaps that’s why there’s a wholesale renovation planned for next summer, aimed at restoring Donald Ross’s original layout.

Lee is arguably the best driver in this field at the moment and his blend of prodigious length and red-hot putting does call to mind a peak version of Champ or indeed DeChambeau. And I like too that he arrives fresh: without invites to Signature Events (!), he’s played five times dating back to the Masters, never finishing outside the top 30 despite three of these being majors.

A fortnight ago he was 21st at the Ross-designed Pinehurst, adding to 17th at Oak Hill last May, and reports of a soft, vulnerable golf course are ideal. This is arguably the best chance he’s had to date on the PGA Tour and while in golf that still means the odds are stacked against him, the classy young Australian, far fresher than those above him in the betting, can deliver a big performance.

Three years ago I sided with Davis Thompson at 400/1 on a sponsor’s invite and he opened with a nine-under 63, which remains the course record, before understandably fading. He returned to play well at about 150/1 last year and has taken his game up another level since, but that means odds closer to 28/1 and it’s weeks since he was the same price for a Myrtle Beach Classic headed by Erik van Rooyen and Ben Griffin.

Ultimately I can’t put him up at these prices for all that I’m a huge fan and I would say there is valid concern around the suitability of a shootout. Yes, he almost won the AmEx, which is a shootout in the purest sense, but his putter rarely gets red-hot – it’s a year since he ranked inside the top 10 for a tournament – and it may well need to if he’s to get off the mark.

That club would have to be the concern regarding STEPHAN JAEGER but he’s been fifth and ninth over the last two renewals and, on both occasions, he putted well having putted badly just a week earlier.

Hopefully lightning strikes thrice because everything else is in place for the winner of the Houston Open, who since then has played eight times, seven of them in majors of Signature Events. Only at the Nelson did he drop in grade.

Throughout this run, Jaeger has continued to produce good results, with 18th at Harbour Town, 20th at Craig Ranch, 21st in the Wells Fargo and the US Open and 31st last week all respectable. He got better as the Travelers progressed, too, shooting 67-65-67 over the closing three rounds following a slow start in Connecticut.

Jaeger hit it really well over those final 54 holes last week and we can perhaps draw some optimism from what happened prior to his breakthrough win at Memorial Park. There he’d gone 35-9, putting well, so form figures of MC-5-9 here, and the putting improvement that powered them, mean he’s looking to repeat the trick to some degree.

Two years ago he said he felt shaky on his way to fifth as he was playing for a FedEx Cup Playoff place, but now he’s a winner there’s a simple reason he’s back here: he likes the golf course. With top-15s in each of the last two years at the Ross-designed Sedgefield, and with his increased speed turning him into a power hitter, Jaeger has everything in his favour if that putter finds improvement for these greens again.

Davis to double-up?

Maverick McNealy has close ties with Detroit and is playing some of the best golf of his life now back from an injury absence. He’s another who I don’t think has been missed and while I’m never one to overplay the winner versus non-winner argument – the gap between the two can be wafer-thin – there’s definitely some value to the fact that Jaeger beat Scheffler to win at this level just a couple of months ago.

At bigger odds, European duo Matt Wallace and Nicolai Hojgaard, who fought out the finish in the Dominican Republic last year, are both respected. Wallace has to cope with the journey back from the Netherlands but he’s clearly in excellent form and will be determined to put last week’s frustrations behind him. Hojgaard meanwhile hasn’t been at his best but might be getting closer to it and this will be the most suitable course he’s played in some time.

CAMERON DAVIS is next though in the hope that he can follow up his 2021 win.

Davis was selected on these pages at 150/1 that week, largely because the course might just fit him better than his past results said it would. In the end he was a little fortunate to win after holing out for eagle late on Sunday, which is worth remembering during a period of shall we say worse luck.

The Aussie might feel a bit the same as he’s been banging his head against a brick wall somewhat but as with Jaeger, he’s been playing in the best company for big money, majors, or both. Seven of his eight starts since he was 21st in Houston have come in top-class fields and in the other, at Colonial, he played just fine for three of the four rounds before a poor Sunday.

A mighty effort in US Open qualifying followed as he got the better of Adam Scott, and that’s just another indication that Davis might not be far away. All year he’s offered promise and while he’s maddening to follow at times, we all know he has the ability to win many more titles.

Chancing him here is a no-brainer at the odds as he loves Donald Ross courses, having placed for us at 275/1 at Oak Hill last May, and built up a fine record at Sedgefield. He has two top-20 finishes here since winning, too, and down the years has so often been at his most comfortable on classical, tree-lined courses like Silverado, Jackson, Sawgrass and Harbour Town.

“I love old golf courses, I love old design,” he said last year when ninth at halfway following a second-round 65. “I think Donald Ross courses are some of my favourite, I love what he’s done with flatland and just good greens. I like the way the holes are shaped out here.

“For me, when you miss a shot you generally have a chance to get it back towards the green. I think if you’ve got some creativity you can still make a lot of stuff happen even if you’re out of position. I’ve grown to really love this course now.”

Back Davis to prove it at upwards of 50/1 as he seeks to reignite his Presidents Cup hopes.

Daniel Berger has drifted to a backable price – he was alongside Thompson at the Myrtle Beach Classic remember, and wasn’t far behind him at Pinehurst – but conditions may not play to his strengths and we do need to see life from the putter.

With Sam Stevens well found in the market and Beau Hossler’s long-game AWOL once more, my big-hitting preference is the enigmatic ALEJANDRO TOSTI.

Anyone who listens to The Shotgun Start podcast will be familiar with the antics of the hot-headed Argentine, and with his tendency to get the driver out at any and every opportunity.

It nearly earned him his first PGA Tour win in Houston, where driver is key, and I just wonder if he might relish this low-scoring shootout on a course where some will choose to play positionally, but where we know the bomb-and-gouge approach can work wonders with a bit of luck.

He may need it but 17th place at Colonial last time was a good performance, prior to it he’d been on the fringes at halfway in the PGA Championship, and he was third after the first round in Myrtle Beach where tougher conditions and a load of hazards were always likely to catch him out.

Detroit is vulnerable to his all-out attack if everything comes together and having won at a long course in Nebraska where he could separate with his driver, this powerhouse, who produced his best approach play of the season last time and has had several spike putting weeks, is the sort of flier I like a lot.

Patrick Fishburn could go well having kept busy along with Stevens in Wichita – he’s another long driver whose form lately is encouraging and you’ll find worse top-20 bets – but I’ll sign off with JAKE KNAPP, a Californian powerhouse who should find these bentgrass/poa annua greens familiar.

His form doesn’t leap off the page but a third-round 64 last week was Knapp at his best, around a golf course which wouldn’t have suited him anything like I think this one might.

And, as with a couple of my selections, you can view his form in a more positive light if you consider the company he’s been keeping. Knapp’s last start outside a Signature Event or major saw him finish eighth. His form in such tournaments this year reads 70-MC-3-1-4-MC-8, so a win and three places from seven starts.

Perhaps he was just in better nick for them than he is now and there’s no denying that players can be knocked off course by competing at the highest level for little reward. But that 64, combined with his power, his ability to work the ball both ways, and the potential that the putter turns up, all make him a fascinating contender.

Given the international nature of my other selections it was tempting to take 75/1 in the top American market instead, where you can get 200s Fishburn for four places. Both are good options with doubts surrounding some of the home team but we’ll stick to the more widely-available outright market, where most firms now pay down to eighth on the PGA Tour.

Posted at 1000 BST on 25/06/24

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