Snake-Drafting Every No. 1 NBA Draft Pick Since LeBron: Pt. 2, Young Guns & Vets

Drafts! Everyone loves ’em. They often carry our offseasons and give fanbases hope. And, fair or not, the guys who get selected at the top of the annual event are forever connected with being taken No. 1 overall—as well as all the pressure and excitement that comes with it.

Roughly a week out from the 2024 NBA draft, the B/R hoops staff got together to reminisce about that group and take a crack at redrafting every No. 1 pick of the last 20 classes. Our goal was to get these guys at their on-court best, so the selection parameters were simple: pick each player based on his peak season.

Our time frame of 2004 to 2023 leaves us just one year shy of LeBron James’ entry into the league—but what sort of suspense would there be at the top of this exercise if we included The King?

Also, much like the All-NBA squads, B/R stand-in general managers Grant Hughes, Dan Favale, Bryan Toporek and Joey Akeley went positionless and took the best player available rather than attempting to form coherent teams.

Since this group tended to be big-man heavy, that avoided unfairly bumping up ball-handlers who otherwise wouldn’t have made it to such a lofty position in the order. When relevant, playoff performances were considered as tiebreakers. Finally, to lean into the fantasy element, we went with a tried-and-true snake draft.

On Tuesday we unveiled Nos. 16-20, a group rife with busts and what-ifs. Today’s edition includes two guys with small sample sizes and a few talented question marks at Nos. 11-15. Check back here each day this week as we reveal five selections every morning, building to Nos. 1-5 on Friday.

Here’s a look at the available No. 1 overall picks since 2004, along with the franchises that drafted them, listed in chronological order:

2004: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

2005: Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks

2006: Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors

2007: Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers

2008: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

2009: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

2010: John Wall, Washington Wizards

2011: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers

2012: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans

2013: Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Cleveland Cavaliers

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

2016: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

2017: Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers

2018: Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns

2019: Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans

2020: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

2021: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

2022: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

2023: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Peak season: 2014-15

Peak season stats: 5.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.8 APG, 42.1 FG%, 11.4 PER, -3.9 BPM, .017 WS/48

What else is there to say other than:

—Favale

Peak season: 2010-11 (Toronto Raptors)

Peak season stats: 21.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.2 3PG, 44.8 FG%, 16.4 PER, -1.4 BPM, .052 WS/48

Of the past 20 No. 1 overall picks, only two have a negative career box plus/minus: Andrea Bargnani and Anthony Bennett.

At No. 19, we were really left to pick from the cream of the crop.

Bargnani at least had one season in which he cracked 20 points per game. He also knocked down 77 three-pointers that year at a 34.5 percent clip, which made him a big man who was largely ahead of his time. (Imagine if he was born 10-15 years later!)

Bargnani could not defend worth a lick, as evidenced by the negative defensive BPM he put up in every single season of his 10-year career. The Toronto Raptors were also thoroughly mediocre during the seven-year Bargnani era, finishing with only two first-round playoff knockouts and one above-.500 season to show for it.

But when your only competition is Bennett—he of the 4.4 career points-per-game average in 151 regular-season appearances—you hold your nose and take Bargnani here.

—Toporek

Peak season: 2022-23 (Orlando Magic)

Peak season stats: 14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 51.4 FG%, 16.6 PER, 0.5 BPM, .100 WS/48

In his peak season, Markelle Fultz was a slightly above-average NBA player, as stats like PER and BPM confirm.

It goes without saying that his peak is disappointing for a No. 1 pick. But it does explain why he was taken over Bargnani in this exercise.

Bargnani averaged 21.4 points per game in his peak season, but his BPM (-1.4) was considerably worse than Fultz’s, and that passes the eye test. Bargnani was a defensive sieve and a black hole on offense. In contrast, Fultz held his own on both ends.

If Fultz can ever develop a three-point shot, he’d rise up lists like this one. Alas, he made just four of his 18 three-point attempts in 2023-24.

—Akeley

Peak season: 2009-10 (Portland Trail Blazers)

Peak season stats: 11.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 60.5 FG%, 23.1 PER, 3.5 BPM, .214 WS/48

I suspect all of us went into the draft knowing who the last four picks would be. In that sense, I lucked out in getting the first choice among Greg Oden, Fultz, Bargnani and Bennett. At least I’d get to decide which of the final four I could stomach putting on my made-up roster.

Oden’s 2009-10 season lasted just 21 games and, well…that was enough. In just 23.9 minutes per contest, he averaged 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, flashing the overpowering physicality and surprising agility that got him drafted ahead of Kevin Durant in real life.

The sample is vanishingly small, but Oden’s Portland Trail Blazers were 8.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor that season, a figure that ranked in the 94th percentile among all players.

Oden also had a positive impact over a much longer stretch of 61 games in 2008-09, but his per-minute production was superior in the year I’m choosing.

Honestly, I’m just glad I didn’t get stuck with Bargnani, Fultz or Bennett, none of whom has ever had a season in which they made positive impacts on their team’s bottom line like Oden did in 2009-10.

—Hughes

Peak season: 2021-22 (Golden State Warriors)

Peak season stats: 17.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.2 3PG, 46.6 FG%, 15.0 PER, 0.4 BPM, .105 WS/48

The player whom I badly wanted got taken just before this pick, which elicited profanity from me in the moment. I won’t apologize.

The consolation: landing Andrew Wiggins this late still felt like a heist.

Sure, his career body of work leaves plenty to be desired, and Wiggins may still go down as one of the more frustrating top picks in recent memory. But none of that takes away from his incredible run in 2021-22, in which he averaged 17.2 points per game, made the only All-Star appearance of his career, shot 39.3 percent from deep and was arguably the second-best player in a Finals series that included Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Nobody before or since has guarded Luka Dončić as effectively as Wiggins did in that year’s Western Conference Finals, and the same could probably be said for the job he did on Tatum. Opinions may have differed on who was the best wing defender in the league at the time, but it’s difficult to imagine anyone locking down elite opponents quite like Wiggins did.

If we’re talking pure peaks and valuing excellence at the absolute highest level of competition, you could argue Wiggins’ work during the Warriors’ title run exceeds anything we’ve seen from all but a couple of players in this entire exercise.

And yes, I’m aware my Warriors bias is showing. Again, no apologies.

—Hughes

Peak season: 2009-10 (Milwaukee Bucks)

Peak season stats: 15.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 52.0 FG%, 20.7 PER, 3.1 BPM, .161 WS/48

In the moment, I roasted Bryan for taking Deandre Ayton over Andrew Bogut at No. 14. In his defense, Ayton beats Bogut in some key stats, such as points per game, field-goal percentage, PER and WS/48.

But I stand by my take that the big Aussie was a better player at his peak.

In 2009-10, Bogut finished seventh in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and fifth in Most Improved Player voting, and he was voted third-team All-NBA.

Bogut was on a trajectory to make several All-Star teams eventually, but late in the season, he suffered a terrible injury, breaking his hand, dislocating his elbow and spraining his wrist.

He was never the same on offense, as his points-per-game averages fell to 12.8, 11.3 and 5.8 over the next three seasons.

But this exercise focuses solely on a peak season, and Bogut’s combination of elite defense and creative scoring around the basket gave him a slight edge on Wiggins, who was great in stretches on defense in 2021-22 but didn’t have the yearlong impact Bogut had.

—Akeley

Peak season: 2021-22 (Phoenix Suns)

Joey indeed roasted me for not taking Bogut instead. He might have a fair point.

Peak Bogut was a far better defender than Deandre Ayton ever has been. In the 2009-10 season, he averaged a career-high 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game en route to a third-team All-NBA nod and a seventh-place finish in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Ayton has never even been named to the All-Star Game, much less an All-NBA team.

Then again, the 2018 No. 1 pick is no slouch. He finished two games shy of winning a championship in 2020-21, and he came back the following season intent on making an even bigger impact. He did so by shooting a career-best 63.4 percent from the field while averaging a double-double for the fourth straight season to kick off his career.

The Suns didn’t make it back to the Finals in 2022, but Ayton did average 17.9 points and 8.9 rebounds in only 30.5 minutes per game while shooting 64.0 percent from the floor in the playoffs. However, then-head coach Monty Williams benched him early in their blowout Game 7 loss to Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks, which led to some offseason bad blood.

Ayton can’t individually create his shot like Nikola Jokić or Joel Embiid, but he’s deadly when paired with an elite point guard. Inconsistency has long been the biggest knock against him, but he’s proved in recent playoff runs that he can’t be played off the floor defensively, unlike most other traditional big men.

—Toporek

Peak season: 2023-24 (Detroit Pistons)

Peak season stats: 22.7 PPG, 7.5 APG, 4.3 RPG, 44.9 FG%, 17.1 PER, 0.3 BPM, .041 WS/48

Cade Cunningham’s turnovers and scoring efficiency don’t do him any favors in this discussion. I could have gone with the peak defense of Bogut or Ayton here. Wiggins, of 2021-22 fame, deserves an honorable mention as well for establishing himself as perhaps the second-most important player on an NBA champion.

Still, for as many faults as Cunningham has, his appeal isn’t hypothetical. It’s actual.

You have to peer through the muck that was the 2023-24 Detroit Pistons to get a proper view. Averaging over 22 points and seven assists in your third year is a big deal, even if it comes on a lackluster 54.7 true shooting percentage. And despite the concerns about how his entire package comes together, with his size and skill, he is already among the most versatile offensive players in the league.

Plus, Cunningham made real strides as the season wore on. His live-dribble decision-making improved from its early-season nadir, and he developed into someone defenses must at least respect or think twice about as a jump shooter. Not only did he shoot almost 36 percent from deep, but he also drilled basically 43 percent of his step-back triples..

No, Cunningham’s peak season doesn’t include an All-Star bid. But, well, we’ve entered that part of the draft. And more than that, making any progress, at all, on last season’s Pistons is its own version of stardom.

—Favale

Peak season: 2023-24 (Orlando Magic)

Peak season stats: 22.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 45.5 FG%, 17.3 PER, 1.3 BPM, .090 WS/48

Paolo Banchero has just two seasons under his belt.

It turns out that’s more than enough for him to comfortably avoid the bottom five. Hell, while I respect the decisions made by Mr. Akeley and Mr. Toporek at Nos. 10 and 11, respectively, the sophomore version of Banchero has a legitimate top-10 case.

There is a balletic brutality to the way Banchero plays, a unique blend of force and finesse between which he shimmies, with footing and shifting on-ball speed that belies his size and build.

Sticklers will harp on his efficiency. You try generating buckets for yourself and others on a team with virtually no shooting. Banchero feels the full wrath of defenses every single game. His sub-55 true shooting percentage is unimpressive on its face. It’s also a minor miracle that it’s not much lower. And he makes up for some of it by parading to the charity stripe.

Just seven other players have topped 22 points and five assists while matching Banchero’s free-throw-attempt rate in one of their first two seasons: Oscar Robertson (1960-61, 1961-62), Jerry West (1961-62), Tiny Archibald (1971-72), Michael Jordan (1984-85), Dwyane Wade (2004-05), Luka Dončić (2019-20) and Trae Young (2019-20).

—Favale

Peak season: 2019-20 (Philadelphia 76ers)

Peak season stats: 16.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.0 APG, 2.1 SPG, 58.0 FG%, 20.4 PER, 3.6 BPM, .165 WS/48

Forcing a native Philadelphian into making this pick is pure evil. I hope my draftmates lose sleep over it tonight.

There was a clear drop-off after the top 10, though, and Ben Simmons was the best of the rest.

Toward the end of the 2019-20 season, Simmons began to experience the back issues that plague him to this day. He missed the 76ers’ four-game sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics in the first round of the bubble playoffs. But prior to the pandemic-induced shutdown, Simmons was making the biggest two-way impact of his career.

That year marked the first of Simmons’ two straight first-team All-Defensive appearances. He earned his second straight All-Star nod, finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, landed a third-team All-NBA spot and led the league with 2.1 steals per game. He also hit his first career regular-season three-pointer—he went a scorching 2-of-7 from deep on the year—and racked up six triple-doubles in 57 regular-season games.

Simmons had his infamous meltdown against the Atlanta Hawks during the following year’s playoffs, and his NBA career has gone off the rails ever since. But before the back injuries, the trade request and the holdout, we still lived in a time when Simmons’ offseason workout videos seemingly meant something. Maybe this is the year that he learns how to shoot threes!

Oh, how naive we all were.

—Toporek

Full Order (with Peak Season)

11. Ben Simmons, 2019-20

12. Paolo Banchero, 2023-24

13. Cade Cunningham, 2023-24

14. Deandre Ayton, 2021-22

15. Andrew Bogut, 2009-10

16. Andrew Wiggins, 2021-22

17. Greg Oden, 2009-10

18. Markelle Fultz, 2022-23

19. Andrea Bargnani, 2010-11

20. Anthony Bennett, 2014-15

Rosters

Grant Hughes

Wiggins
Oden

Joey Akeley

Bogut
Fultz

Bryan Toporek

Simmons
Ayton
Bargnani

Dan Favale

Banchero
Cunningham
Bennett

Advanced statistics via Basketball Reference, NBA.com and Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.