Temperatures of 33C or above now far more likely in Ireland, researchers say

On July 18, 2022, the weather station in Dublin’s Phoenix Park recorded a temperature of 32C, just shy of the national all-time record of 33.C recorded Kilkenny Castle in June 1887. Scientists now predict that this record will be broke in the coming years. 

Indeed, the Maynooth study suggests that a temperature of 33C is 20 times more likely than 80 years ago, while a temperature of 34C or above is 57 times more likely than 80 years ago.

The researchers say the the new model they devised for the study, which can predict the frequency, magnitude, and the geographic area of extreme weather events here, offers policymakers a “powerful tool” to plan and mitigate risks for future climate scenarios.

The study’s findings, the researchers say, underscores the “the urgency for societal adaptations to increasing extreme weather events” which can have “profound implications” for public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience.

The study was led by professor Andrew Parnell and Dr Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, and also involved professor Peter Thorne of Maynooth University’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre, and professor Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University in the UK.

“We are often focused on average changes, and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5C,” Prof Parnell said.

“What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average, and are something we should be seriously concerned about.”

The team’s findings were detailed in a recent paper titled: Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland. They were presented to the UK’s Royal Statistical Society last month.

Using new mathematical techniques to capture both the location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperature, the team’s analysis identified “a significant change” in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.

“We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger, having at least doubled in extent for 28C, with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures,” Dr Healy said.

The full study can be read here