Our Ben Linfoot answers the big questions ahead of the July Festival and he discusses the July Cup, Falmouth Stakes and Charlie Appleby.
Stravinsky, Mozart, U S Navy Flag. All three won the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes for Aidan O’Brien after dropping in trip from their Royal Ascot assignments and River Tiber aims to follow in their hoofprints for the same stable come Saturday afternoon.
Inisherin and Vandeek top the market here, the former so impressive in the Commonwealth Cup while the latter’s top juvenile form still lingers in the memory bank, but if there’s one to scupper the top two in the betting then it could be the unexposed-at-the-distance River Tiber.
Yes, he was beaten by Vandeek in two G1 assignments over six furlongs at two, but not by far, and the evidence we have so far this year is that Simon & Ed Crisford’s horse’s advantage over his peers has been eroded as we pass the halfway point in their three-year-old campaigns.
River Tiber disappointed in the Jersey Stakes, trailing home eighth despite being sent off the 13/8 favourite, but as the bulk of the field finished well from middle to stands’ side draws it turned out he wasn’t ideally berthed from the far side in stall seven and he was still in contention with just over a furlong to go.
All is not lost, then, as far as his July Cup prospects go, and he has a very nice run in third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, where he finished just behind Jersey winner, Haatem, from this season to his name, as well.
It would be unfair to name the three Ballydoyle horses who won the July Cup after dropping in trip but not the vanquished trying the same thing from the same yard, so here they are; Monashee Mountain, Landseer, Sahara Desert, Tomahawk, Antonius Pius, Marcus Andronicus, Oracle, Reply, Gale Force Ten, Air Force Blue and So Perfect.
River Tiber will belong in one of the lists come Saturday afternoon, but he looks like a horse with more to give rather than this being a desperate roll of the dice. All things considered, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the July Cup brings out the best in him.
There is no doubt the Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes has been a struggle for the market leaders in the last five years with all of the favourites beaten in that timeframe including Inspiral at 1/7, Terebellum at 5/6 and Via Sistina at even-money.
They all underperformed for one reason or another, be it ground conditions or racing too freely, but you look at Porta Fortuna at 6/4 in this year’s renewal and think she can buck the trend such are her rock-solid credentials.
She was really impressive in a deep Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, turning the 1000 Guineas form around with Elmalka in style, benefitting from having the run at Newmarket (where she was the only one of the top four not to have a prep) and utilising her burst of speed on the faster ground at the Royal meeting.
With two good Rowley Mile efforts under her belt – she won last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes in good style, as well as second in the Guineas – there is no reason why the July Course won’t suit and, put simply, she has a form chance that could make those odds of 6/4 look on the big side.
Her biggest danger could be fellow Irish-trained three-year-old A Lilac Rolla, coming here on the back of an excellent second behind Fallen Angel in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time out.
Interestingly, A Lilac Rolla is by Harry Angel, the conqueror of Porta Fortuna’s sire, Caravaggio, in the 2017 July Cup on this very turf. Seven years on, perhaps Porta Fortuna will avenge that defeat, and end a barren run for the favourites in a Falmouth Stakes that looks hers for the taking.
Charlie Appleby had 35 runners in Britain in June, his lowest tally in that month of the year since records began (well, since he started training in 2013).
Late night viewers of Stateside on Sky Sports Racing will have seen him interviewed more times about his runners on the other side of the Atlantic than they did for Royal Ascot, for instance, but if there’s one domestic roadshow that Appleby rarely misses it’s the July Festival in his own back yard.
Indeed, Appleby had just nine winners in Britain last month, but at the last three July Festivals he’s had 11 victories in total and the chances are he’ll keep up that average of four winners at the meeting judging by his entries this week.
The big guns include Ancient Wisdom in the Bahrain Trophy, with the Derby eighth aiming to bounce back from Epsom, Mountain Breeze in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes after her good run in fourth in the Albany at Royal Ascot and Ancient Truth in the Superlative Stakes, where the unbeaten son of Dubawi will aim to maintain his perfect record at Newmarket.
Plenty rests on the juveniles, then, but while Appleby’s older horses haven’t come up to scratch in domestic Group races by and large this season, he does look set to unleash a trio of interesting handicappers on the July Course.
Royal Power, Endless Victory and First Conquest are the horses in question, all suitably unexposed and bred to be better than racing off marks in the 90s by the July of their three-year-old careers.
They haven’t cut it at pattern level yet, but one of them might just make up into a handicap winner this week, helping to keep up the Appleby average despite a recent quiet time of things from the Moulton Paddocks yard.
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