The Orlando Magic Quietly Won the NBA Offseason

Almost every year, a precocious, ascending young core emerges from the summer with just enough talent and shared experience to demolish the relatively humble expectations placed on their head. In 2022, this was the Memphis Grizzlies, a 56-win team that was assigned a preseason over/under of 41.5. Last year, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder, a 57-win team that had its mark set at 44.5.

These are organizations that struck gold in the draft (more than once), developed homegrown blue-chip prospects at a faster rate than anyone thought possible, and embraced restraint. Everyone was aligned. No corners were cut by front offices that chose to turn the page and start from scratch. They succeeded in the present by prioritizing the future; patience was their virtue.

This year, the Orlando Magic are a perfect candidate to fill those shoes. Coming off an admirable 47-win regular season, competitive playoff appearance, and home-run offseason that demonstrated an impressive awareness of their own potential and limitations, this team already has winning habits, a hard-nosed style that’s harmonious with its personnel, and blooming building blocks who make sense together. And yet, seven teams in their conference currently have more favorable championship odds.

The main cause for optimism is Paolo Banchero. Primed for a significant third-year leap that could end with him as one of the league’s 15 best players, Banchero is a 6-foot-10, 250-pound brutish wrecking ball with handle and touch, who averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in his second season. A cynic will call these empty calories for someone whose team keeps getting outscored when he’s on the floor. An optimist hears the siren that sounds when a tsunami is about to hit land. Bottom line: The 2023 Rookie of the Year regularly creates problems his opponents struggle to solve.

Faith in Orlando’s short-term upside is a bet on Banchero’s ability to become a more efficient and amenable high-usage first option leading a roster that’s increasingly better able to accentuate his remarkable skill set. It’s one worth making. His sophomore season was full of strides, featuring his first All-Star appearance, first playoff series (27 points per game while making 40 percent of his 3s), and meaningful maturation on both ends.

Beside him is Franz Wagner, another 6-foot-10 forward with a unique combination of size, toughness, and agility that enhances his pick-and-roll prowess and substantial craft attacking the rim. Few players this large can shift their body with a live dribble as well as Wagner already does:

Orlando’s recent decision to give him a $224 million max extension might be overzealous, particularly to anyone experiencing recency bias. Wagner made just 28.1 percent of his 3s last season and went 1-for-15 from the field in his first Game 7. But it’s likely a harmless move (and obliging confidence boost) for a useful bedrock with All-Star promise who’s likely coming off the worst shooting season (and playoff series) of his life. Wagner is wonderful and turns only 23 in August.

Then there’s Jalen Suggs, the All-Defensive team bloodhound whose 3-point accuracy has improved after two disappointing seasons. Currently eligible for his own contract extension, the 23-year-old spent his third season showing how good he can be when healthy, with an impact that changed his career and team’s trajectory. Cole Anthony (a 24-year-old spark off the bench) and Wendell Carter Jr. (a tenacious rebounding 25-year-old who made 40.4 percent of his non-corner 3s last year) are former lottery picks who’re getting better in contexts that serve the greater good. Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and incoming first-round pick Tristan da Silva (a smart, big, four-year college star who can really shoot) are waiting in the wings. (Orlando’s roster includes nine players it drafted, which ties San Antonio for most in the league.)

The environment is copacetic. But building on that foundation without caving the roof in is much easier said than done when you enter an offseason with max cap space and a salary-related time crunch with your own players.

The Magic were careful, though. They didn’t have to hit the gas and acquire a star. Whether that meant signing Paul George or trading for someone like Trae Young, Orlando believed that bringing in a household name at this juncture could upset a delicately nurtured ecosystem and carefully constructed hierarchy. “Part of that step forward is showing our young guys how they take a step forward,” Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said. “We’re not going to deviate from our North Star, which is developing our young talent.”

Instead, the Magic pursued a reliable role player who could splash some 3-point shooting into their dry offense and round out a defense that’s already a bear. (Orlando finished third in defensive rating last year, including first after the All-Star break and second against top-10 offenses.) Whether leading by example or with his voice, this veteran could impart his winning experience and positively influence a roster that was ready to progress without knowing all that’s required to do so. If manifested in their dreams, this theoretical player would be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, whom the Magic wisely signed to a three-year, $66 million contract.

KCP is a soft breeze when the boat starts to wobble. He does dirty work. He hits big shots. He’s only 31 years old, doesn’t need the ball, rarely misses games, and finished last season with a career-high true shooting percentage. There are 82 players since 2020 who’ve attempted at least 1,500 3-pointers. Among them, Caldwell-Pope is one of seven to make over 40 percent.

“KCP to me is a basketball guy’s basketball guy,” Weltman said. “He doesn’t have sexy stats. He’s not a high scorer. But the fact that he … guards the other team’s best player 97 percent of the time. Those are the stats that excite guys like us.”

As someone who’s won two rings on two different teams in the last five years while averaging 76 games per season for his entire career, KCP’s dependability is priceless for an organization that was already in love with everything else it had. And his decision to choose Orlando is a testament to the franchise’s current standing. Money talks, but it could not have been easy to leave Nikola Jokic and wave goodbye to a contender that personifies basketball nirvana. “It took a while to think about it,” he said. “There was no sense in me waiting to see if they was gonna come back with an offer or offer me anything.”

Caldwell-Pope, as much as anyone, understands a growing NBA truism: Continuity is fleeting. Teams that can harness it on their way up the mountain typically benefit a great deal. The Magic get it. Togetherness is one of their great strengths—last year they rolled over 87 percent of the previous season’s minutes, which was sixth most in the league—and instead of using their leftover cap space to add another expensive free agent and force head coach Jamahl Mosley to reshape his rotation, they decided to bring back most of their own. (Markelle Fultz—and his inability to stretch the floor—is the odd man out.)

Orlando’s most compelling deal of the summer was with Jonathan Isaac (maybe the best defender in the NBA), who became the 12th player since 2006 to have his contract renegotiated and extended on an extremely team-friendly five-year, $84 million pact that descends annually and is non-guaranteed in the back half. After battling serious injuries for most of his career, Isaac was finally a somewhat reliable contributor last year, finishing first (as in no. 1) in defensive estimated plus-minus with a 68.3 true shooting percentage after the All-Star break.

“We’ve always had faith in Jonathan. He kinda got to show who he was last year,” Weltman said. “We’re hoping that’s just the beginning. This new CBA is going to be restrictive for everybody. To be able to realign some of the existing contracts so you can set yourself up to face that was part of what we hoped to accomplish this summer.”

Mo Wagner, Gary Harris, and Goga Bitadze were also all re-signed to appropriately priced short-term contracts. All three hold minor albeit important roles that they’re inclined to accept. Zoom out and Orlando has depth, chemistry, an on-court identity, young players who are willing to sacrifice, internal growth at nearly every position, and a franchise player on the doorstep of superstardom. Health willing, 50-plus wins are on the horizon.

Last week after sussing out every offseason move that’s been made thus far, I called Orlando the biggest threat to the Celtics in the East. Despite not having the same level of star power as the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, and Milwaukee Bucks, when you defend like Orlando can, deploying jumbo-sized lineups that rebound, protect the rim, navigate screens, force a ton of turnovers, and fight for every square inch, a no. 1, 2, or 3 seed becomes possible. They have elite on-ball defenders, elite help defenders, speed, length, and pride.

“Defense wins games. It also gon’ win you a championship. So the more that we can focus on that end, everything else will fall into place,” Caldwell-Pope said. “Your offensive game gon’ come. Shots will start falling. The flow of the game seems much better when you focus on the defensive end and then everything else is just flowing.”

Picture a closing lineup that has Suggs, Isaac, Caldwell-Pope, Banchero, and Wagner. Or the 6-foot-8 Silva in for Suggs. Or Carter in for Isaac. If you’re the Celtics—with an offense that leverages its plethora of 3-point threats to create mismatches all over the floor—where is the weak link worth hunting? There are some great defenses in the NBA right now. Boston, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City can all stake claim as the best. But after the next 82 games are played, Orlando may stand alone.

It’s the other end where reasons to doubt a true Magic breakout exist. Spacing is the natural concern for a team that just finished 22nd in offensive rating and near the bottom of the league in both 3-point volume and accuracy. And as of this writing, they still don’t have a traditional table setter (Tyus Jones is probably out of their price range but would be a literal perfect fit) who can take some ball-handling responsibilities off Banchero’s and Wagner’s plates while affording them some more room to operate. When those two franchise pillars shared the court last year, Orlando’s offense rating was a dreadful 109.4.

Some of that congestion is due to Wagner. But all hope is not lost. Given the larger sample size of his rookie and sophomore seasons, it’s fair to view Wagner’s sagging 3-point percentage as an aberration instead of the norm. And plugging KCP into the starting lineup should widen driving lanes and generate easier scoring chances for Banchero, particularly as a dribble handoff partner and respected spot-up threat off post-up and isolation plays. Having a trailer who can knock down 3s in transition will help.

What’s remarkable about Orlando is despite its lack of spacing it still finished first in at-rim shot frequency—overall and in half-court situations—and fourth in free throw rate last season. Stats that speak to the roster’s sheer power, aggression, and verve hammering the paint. Wagner converted more baskets on drives to the rim than LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum last year. Banchero is a dump truck who demands double-teams.

Any team this cohesive, athletic, and well calibrated can at least be league average on offense, with possession of all their own draft picks if an opportunity to upgrade before the trade deadline materializes. The Magic are built to contend a few years from now, but they can also be a top-three seed this season. As was true for Oklahoma City and Memphis before them, this group may need a seismographic readout. Armed with the unquantifiable benefits of familiarity, sprouting talent, smart coaches, and a shrewd front office, they’re ahead of schedule, poised to crash a party they weren’t meant to attend yet.