The Trail Blazers Head Into NBA Free Agency with Targeted Needs

The Portland Trail Blazers will enter the heart of NBA Free Agency period tomorrow with 29 other teams, jockeying for position, trying to improve themselves by whatever definition applies. All franchises are not created equal, however. Portland’s priorities will be radically different than the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks.

Today we’re going to run down the Blazers’ current situation and ask what they might do during free agency, in the time between now and the start of the season.

The Cap Situation

If we eliminate easily-disposable cap obligations, the Blazers have just over $160 million in salary commitments heading into the new fiscal year. The salary cap line is projected at $141 million, the luxury tax threshold at $171 million.

This leaves Portland well over the cap line, but under the tax threshold, a common spot for NBA teams.

Before the trade that sent Malcolm Brogdon to the Washington Wizards for forward Deni Avdija, Portland was uncomfortably close to tax territory. That move alleviated some pressure. Tax penalties are not assessed until the end of the season, but the Blazers didn’t want to enter the year flirting with disaster on the ledger. They avoided that.

Their headroom is enough that they can now use cap exceptions. They have a mid-level exception worth nearly $13 million…more than they need. They have a bi-annual exception at $4.5 million and a significant trade exception worth $8.8 million which expires on September 27th.

They’re not going to want to get back into hot water by using all of those, but they now have the flexibility to use any of the above while still having a reasonable expectation of finishing the year under the threshold.

Needs

The Blazers need, well, almost everything. They don’t have enough talent or depth to compete with the NBA elite. They’re years away from being fully-formed, still firmly in rebuilding mode. That means almost any player south of 30 years old would help them.

Chances are the Blazers will covet two types of players.

• They’ll like players in the Avdija mold: having NBA experience, perhaps underutilized or growing into their own, with reasonable salary expectations. This is the gold standard for them right now.
• Savvy, leadership-based veterans willing to work for cheap will also be prized. The Blazers need a steadying locker-room presence or two, perhaps a veteran back-up point guard to replace Brogdon. They’re not going to be investing big here, though. Think veteran-minimum contract or close to it.

Trades

It’ll be immediately evident that neither type of player solves Portland’s long-term issues. They need more star power, the kind that’s not available to them in free agency, period, let alone with cap exceptions.

If they’re going to make this kind of move, they’re probably going to have to do it through the draft. Acquiring high-value picks will require trading existing players off the roster. This kind of swap will look like a backwards move at first, but that’s the point. Instead of limiting themselves to incremental steps now, they’ll want whole new horizons to open up later. Incremental will happen via free agency, new vistas through trading for future draft assets.

The key question in Portland this off-season isn’t just who can help them make the next step forward, but who doesn’t fit in that picture. If a player won’t be helpful, or at least have trade value, 2-3 years from now, he’s primed to be moved.

The most obvious example remaining on the roster is Jerami Grant. He’s 30 years old and is at the peak of his trade value right now. Several teams would be interested in him: the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Lakers, their cousins the Clippers if they lose Paul George, the Dallas Mavericks, the Milwaukee Bucks…we could go on. Look for teams in contention to offload mid-salary players with short-term contracts plus future picks.

A Grant trade might not happen this summer, however. The Blazers could wait until the trade deadline to find a trading partner that thought they’d be in contention but ended up short, trying to maximize the return for the veteran forward. Next summer is also a strong possibility.

The Blazers now have three centers in Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, and newly-drafted Donovan Clingan. Trading one of them would make some sense. Again, watch for the key criterion: which one of them does the front office regard as least likely to be helpful 2-3 years down the road? If they don’t believe strongly in Ayton or Williams, they have incentive to move them before their contracts run out.

Other than Grant, though, the Blazers don’t have any players remaining with more than six years of NBA experience. That leaves open the possibility that they’re already happy with the growing talent on the roster and will mostly stay pat. The best way to put it is that the team can make deals, but they’re not forced to by any organic circumstance.

Timeline

Teams began negotiating with their own free agents on Sunday, June 18th. Ayton, Williams, and Anfernee Simons are all eligible for extensions. Portland has no outstanding unrestricted free agents.

Negotiation with all other free agents begins tomorrow, June 30th, at 6:00 PM, Eastern, 3:00 PM, Pacific.

Actual signings begin Saturday, July 6th at 12:01 PM, Eastern, 9:01 AM, Pacific.

You will find all negotiation news and rumors here on site in our various posts on NBA free agency over the next two weeks.