Threat posed by H5N1 bird flu deepens, as public health authorities delay action

Since the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 bird flu) was first detected among dairy cows in late March, a total of 132 herds across 12 states have now officially been impacted. In the last 30 days, an additional 65 infected herds have been confirmed across eight states. Despite repeated assurances given by the federal government that every resource is being utilized to eliminate the threat, scientists are increasingly concerned that far too little is actually being done to protect humanity from another pandemic.

To date, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has only tested 51 people potentially exposed to H5N1, a figure which has remained essentially static since the outbreak was detected. This only confirms in the negative that little has been done to conduct surveillance, testing, and serological studies of communities where people and livestock live in close proximity, which are necessary for epidemiologists to comprehend the scope of the ongoing threat.

More recently, a Michigan initiative is underway with the support of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to begin testing a wider range of dairy products and a human serology study to assess the impact on workers after exposure to sick cows. The CDC stated that the objective of these efforts is to determine the efficacy of antivirals on the circulating clade of the bird flu, understanding infection in people, estimating the incubation period and potential mechanisms to mitigate the possibility of an H5N1 pandemic.

In a recent social media post on Twitter/X, molecular biologist and social science journalist Kai Kupferschmidt commented on research being conducted in a high security lab in Germany where cows were infected with the H5N1 strain circulating in US dairy cows and strains from H5N1-infected wild birds. He wrote, “In both cases they infected the udders directly through the teats and in both cases the animals got sick. They showed clear signs of disease such as a sharp drop in milk production, changes in milk consistency and fever.”

Kupferschmidt noted that the preliminary results imply that wherever H5N1 is circulating, the virus can spill over into cows. The researchers also indicated that transmission among cows may be a result of human activity, in which contaminated equipment is causing transmission through direct contact. However, he said that more research is needed on the potential for cow-to-cow transmission, and he is awaiting the results of the research to be published soon.

In a special report published in STAT News, based on interviews with numerous experts and federal representatives, the authors concluded,

The country still does not have a sufficient testing infrastructure in place, nor a full understanding of how the virus is moving within herds and to new herds, experts say. Government officials also have not secured the cooperation from farmers and dairy workers that would be required to rein in the outbreak. 

In another interview, former CDC director in the Trump administration Dr. Robert Redfield said, “I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.” He added that a bird flu pandemic would have considerably greater mortality than COVID-19, placing the figure at “somewhere between 25 and 50 percent mortality,” while the death rate for COVID-19 has been estimated at 0.6 percent.