Thursday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Royal Ascot

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Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.

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Daily horse racing tips

• ROYAL ASCOT
  2.30: Tropical Storm 25/1 each-way & The Man 33/1 E/W (1pt each)
  3.05: Assailant 25/1 Each-way (1pt)
  3.45: Diamond Rain 13/8 (1.5pts)
  4.25: Kyprios 6/5 (2pts)
  5.05: Native Warrior 12/1 & Cogitate 18/1 E/W (1pt each)
  5.40: King’s Gambit** 5/2 (1.5pts) & Bellum Justum 18/1 Each-way (1pt)

Tropical Storm & The Man

The first race to kick off Thursday’s fixture is another 5f sprint, the Norfolk Stakes.

This year’s renewal only sees 13 runners out of a maximum 28 but still provides a great start to the day, just like it has with similar numbers in recent years.

The Norfolk is only for two-year-olds and should be considered for being just that, with some inexperienced and eager colts.

In the last two years alone this race has seen 50/1 and 150/1 winners, and that’s what Royal Ascot has to offer, big priced winners for those able to pick out the best on the day, just as we saw on the opening day with an 80/1 winner.

These kind of big priced winners are more prevalent in two-year-old races and 5f sprints, so it’s the best combination.

A favourite hasn’t won in the last ten years which is probably a sign of the modern Norfolk Stakes, being difficult to predict with so many runners not showing their best until the off.

Tropical Storm has to be first on the list for his price given how his Newmarket run has worked out.

He was a neck second to The Actor who placed 13th in the Coventry on Tuesday while Al Qudra who was third behind Tropical Storm at Newmarket went on to place a close fifth.

This Andrew Balding-trained colt is sticking with the 5f and after a close fifth on debut behind Hawaiian, there does seem to be more progression and improvement on the cards.

Oisin Murphy takes the ride and he tends to have a fantastic ability to get the best out of horses at Royal Ascot.

The same can be said for Hollie Doyle who gets the mount on the Richard Spencer-trained The Man.

Who won on debut back in April at Southwell comfortably ahead of Storm Call, despite running green toward the end.

33/1 each-way is worth the risk on this outsider given the recent runnings of this race.

Though Whistlejacket, the favourite, did improve greatly on second run ahead of Arizona Blaze with that horse going on to win at the Curragh in the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes over 6f.

But second in that race, Camille Pissarro could only finish 11th in the Coventry and is worth going for the outsiders with those form lines and value.

Assailant

The King George V Stakes has been won by a few favourites over the years including Enable, three times in 2017, 2019 and 2020.

But since then, there’s been no favourite with 18/1 shots Desert Hero and Pyledriver winning the last two renewals.

There’s no big favourite this year either, with the prices starting at around 6/1 for Chantilly, trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore.

Assailant could give Saffie Osborne a fantastic chance for a Royal Ascot winner at a big price.

This colt has beaten the likes of Duke’s Command who is yet to really show what he’s capable of and then came fourth in a hotly contested five runner event that may work out in the future, with Imperial Sovereign in second and Tribal Star a disappointing but close third.

Assailant was carrying 7lb more than the winner and Tribal Star, so may have more to offer going forward now he’s been gelded and 83 looks a workable mark.

Assailant was also third behind Align The Stars who has since gone on to win subsequently with the runaway winner Kalpana, going on to finish second in listed company.

Diamond Rain

Kalpana proved her ability when beating Align The Stars by a staggering ten lengths at Newmarket in April.

She was upped 16lb as a result and showed that still wasn’t rise enough for her ability as she placed second to Friendly Soul next time out, and was upped again 10lb.

She faces the unbeaten favourite from Godolphin here though Diamond Rain.

Her Dam Dancing Rain won the Oaks and is now looking to emulate her ability stepping up in trip again.

She won comfortably last time out to a filly who also won comfortably on her subsequent run.

A win for Kalpana would boost the chances for Inisherin later on in the week in the Commonwealth Cup but beaten as favourite last time she’s hard to side with this time.

Diamond Rain is likely going to emulate her Dam and being by Shamardal has the pace too, while also being dangerously unexposed.

Kyprios

The Gold Cup is the most sought after trophy at Royal Ascot with only the best stamina capable horses winning the big prize money of the week.

Kyprios won by a mile over 2m4f in the Prix du Cadran (2m4f) and has a fantastic record over these stamina trips including in the 2022 Gold Cup.

He was narrowly beaten by a neck in last year’s Long Distance Cup, but seems likely to return to form as he has done this season already, by stepping up back to the 2m4f course.

He’s proved his ability at Ascot time and time again too so copes with the occasion, ground and course as a whole which is always a plus.

It’s hard to ignore the O’Brien-trained six-year-old who’s as consistent as you can get at this level.

Kyprios has also beaten three-time Gold Cup winner Stradivarius and ought to be the biggest winning favourite of the week.

Native Warrior and Cogitate

Despite the Britannia Stakes having the joint biggest fields of the entire week with around 30 runners taking part, there isn’t usually a massive priced winner in the grand scheme of things.

6/1, 14/1, 18/1 and 9/2 winners have been seen respectively from 2023 downwards and that’s got to be taken into consideration for this year’s renewal.

This is largely due to the fact they’ve all shown real potential already and are capped at around 50/1 with prices starting this year at around 9’s.

Wathnan Racing have been busy scooping up Royal Ascot runners in the lead up to this year’s meeting and they’ve had a fair bit of success with some prominent placers at the very least so far.

Native Warrior at 12/1 for Karl Burke is one they snatched up in May and has potential after he came close to Notable Speech at Kempton in April and followed that up with a win at Nottingham.

He’s still very much unexposed and potentially well-weighted with Notable Speech now rated 122.

Valvano, Persica and Witness Stand were also in that line up and were all only separated by five lengths, with the winner comfortable.

Persica runs off top weight in the 3.05 so that may well give more indication to his potential if that horse goes well.

But Cogitate also has to be included as I have always liked this horse since he made a great debut to beat Boiling Point by two lengths.

The colt went straight to a Group 3 after and though he didn’t quite get there still showed potential.

Bumped into the odds-on favourite and promising Night Raider on seasonal debut but should improve now as a three-year-old for a trainer deserved of a win here.

Bellum Justum & King’s Gambit

A selection in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes comes next which is contested over 1m2f for three-year-olds.

There doesn’t tend to be too much of a surprise in this race in years gone by, but especially in the last ten years where three favourites have won and the biggest prices have been the last two renewals at 7/1.

Mostly due to these three-year-olds not being unexposed coming into this.

This year King’s Gambit is the 5/2 favourite at the time of writing who has William Buick on board.

First Look trained by Adrien Fabre tops the ratings in this field after he placed second in the Group 1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly earlier this month.

They take on a risk putting him out quickly abroad again but clearly think this horse has the potential, but it was Wathnan Racing that picked him up that may be the key to that route.

Bellum Justum was a disappointing seventh in the Derby but of course dwelt at the start which has made him a surprising price to win this and justifies an each-way play at 16/1 given his potential.

Especially back down in trip this three-year-old has beaten Inisherin, just behind True Wisdom and also finished ahead of Defiance, Chief Little Rock and Arabic Legend in the Blue Riband Trial in listed company at Epsom.

That’s a tough track to win at and all his form has been boosted, so shouldn’t be judged solely on the Derby.

**King’s Gambit is a worthy favourite though and is probably the more unexposed of the lot but it will pay to wait for his form to be boosted or franked.

He beat Poniros, Chantilly and Persica last time out in the London Gold Cup, and if they go well, King’s Gambit is more than worth backing at anything around this price.

Tom Lunn’s Profit & Loss

• Royal Ascot: +6.42pts
• P&L from May ’24: +73.66pts
• P&L from July ’23: +286.22pts

All odds correct at time of writing

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