Tony McFadden of Timeform provides an overview of the key things to note for Monday’s racing.
Three points of interest
Key trainer changes at Newton Abbot
There are three notable stable switches that have generated the Timeform Trainer Uplift Flag at Newton Abbot on Monday.
Only Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Fergal O’Brien sent out more winners in Britain last season than Olly Murphy so Limerick Leader (16:15) and Bushmill Boy (17:25) both look interesting having joined his yard from Rose Dobbin and David Thompson respectively.
Both horses are on long losing runs – indeed, Bushmill Boy has yet to win – but they have also finished placed off higher marks so a clear case can be made for them from a handicapping perspective if the switch in stable or recent wind operation have a positive impact.
They are both top on Timeform’s ratings, as is Eurkash (16:50) who has joined the upwardly mobile James Owen following the retirement of Paul Webber. Eurkash is another who is on a long losing run, and his sole success came over fences, but he starts off from a lowly mark for a trainer who does well with his recruits.
My Gift To You was notably successful for Owen last season after joining from Webber, winning five times and mixing up hurdling and chasing to great effect, so Eurkash catches the eye having made the same switch.
Windsor novice a race to note
Amphius and Roi de France have both run to a level that would make them a banker for a typical maiden or novice, but they have ended up in the same event at Windsor on Monday (18:50).
Amphius, a brother to the Hampton Court Stakes winner Sangarius and the Cambridgeshire runner-up Greek Order, has shaped with plenty of potential on both starts, finishing fourth behind subsequent Dante winner Economics in a red-hot Newbury maiden before going close behind Indelible (recently runner-up at listed level) in another strong affair.
Roi de France also boasts a superb pedigree being by Sea The Stars out of a close relation to Coronation Stakes winner Lillie Langtry and he too has offered a lot to work with on both starts. He saw things out well when runner-up on debut at Lingfield last season and then produced a better effort on the figures, despite meeting with defeat at a very short price, when narrowly denied over this course and distance last month.
Adding further spice to proceedings is Northern Ruler who cost 500,000 guineas as a yearling and is an eye-catching debutant for the William Haggas stable. As you’d expect with such a price tag, she has an excellent pedigree as she’s by Kingman and out of an unraced half-sister to Group 1 winners Timepiece and Passage of Time.
Given the quality on show it’s very likely going to take an effort well above what is usually required to win a Windsor novice.
In-form Prescott bidding for another winner
It’s been a stellar start to the month for Sir Mark Prescott who has had seven winners from his 13 runners in Britain at an astonishing 54% strike rate.
He’d also had six winners in a row until Overture’s defeat at Kempton on Wednesday put an end to the sequence, so this is clearly a stable firing on all cylinders.
His two runners in maiden or novice company on Monday are probably up against it, but Almudena has more obvious claims in the mile-and-three-quarter handicap at Wolverhampton (19:40).
Her half-sisters Elhafei and Achnamara both won over this far and Almudena produced her most encouraging effort yet when trying the trip for the first time at Sandown, leaving the impression that she’s capable of better with a clearer run. She’s still unexposed as a stayer and looks like a big player for her in-form trainer.
Tip of the day
Makalu – 16:35 Ayr
Flags: Hot Trainer, Top-Rated
Makalu has been in excellent order this season and went agonisingly close to registering his fourth win of the year when only denied by a nose at Ripon last week. Makalu travelled well in rear and made rapid progress over two furlongs out to throw down a strong challenge that looked sure to carry him to victory (he traded at 1.01 in running) but the front-runner, who was well backed and is a course specialist, dug deep and got the verdict by a nose.
Makalu may not have won but the fact he pulled three and three-quarter lengths clear of the third suggests that he’s still a well-handicapped horse and he holds strong claims here off the same mark; indeed, he’s 5 lb clear on Timeform’s figures.
The good form of Ruth Carr, who has already had four winners this month and plenty go close, is another factor in his favour.
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